Valuentum Exclusive Analysis for the Discerning Investor

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Jan 28, 2024

What Causes Fair Value Estimates to Change?
Image: A screenshot of the discounted cash-flow learning tool for individual investors. So you noticed a fair value estimate changed, and you weren’t sure why? This article is for you.

Apr 5, 2023

The Difference Between Speculation and Investment
In this edited video transcript, Brian Nelson, President of Investment Research at Valuentum, discusses the difference between speculation and investment.

Dec 4, 2022

Apple iPhone Supply Disruptions Not Likely to Hurt Markets with Overall Holiday Sales Reportedly Strong
Image: Holiday sales are expected to expand ~2.5% in 2022 over very strong growth in 2021 and 2020. Image Source: Adobe. Apple's sales of the iPhone 14 Pro and iPhone 14 Pro Max will come in lower than expected this holiday season due to labor unrest in Zhengzhou, but holiday sales for 2022 overall look fairly solid with Adobe Analytics estimating 2.5% growth over 2021, which, itself, was a fantastic year. A prior warning about holiday sales from Target Corp. appears to have been overblown given the sales strength witnessed during Black Friday and Cyber Monday across the retail landscape this year. It may be too early to say that the markets have definitely bottomed as economic data remains inconclusive, but holiday sales so far in 2022 and an overall resilient job market are giving investors something to cheer about in what has turned into an otherwise loathsome year.

Nov 21, 2022

Target’s Holiday Outlook Sends Mixed Messages; Big Sales Data Week Ahead
Image Source: Valuentum. Both Walmart and Target indicated that discretionary spending may face some pressure heading into the holiday season. Strength in beauty, skin care, and cosmetics may not be enough to cushion the blow that home electronics, sporting goods retailers, and toy makers may face. Though incrementally more positive than we were a few months ago, we remain cautious/defensive on the markets. In light of the tremendous weakness share prices have faced so far this year, we think the market had been anticipating the current slowdown, as retailers continue to adjust to a more difficult economic environment. We continue to wait to see how Black Friday and Cyber Monday numbers shake out to get an incrementally better read on how holiday numbers may pan out, which will have far-reaching implications across the retail and logistics landscapes.

Oct 12, 2022

Serious Question: What Are You Looking At?
Image: Stocks with the largest 52-week losses, according to YahooFinance. We've handled the worst performers of 2022 quite handily, and the simulated newsletter portfolios are showcasing the importance of our methodology and processes. We expect things to get worse in the economy before they get better, but we maintain our view that there may be nothing better out there than a subscription to Valuentum to navigate these tumultuous times.

Sep 4, 2022

Video: How Many Stocks Should You Own?
Valuentum's President of Investment Research, Brian Nelson, CFA, explains the importance of diversification, how to think about firm-specific and systematic risk, how many stocks one should own to achieve 90% of the diversification benefits, how to think about active asset allocation versus active equity management, and why diversification is a means to achieve goals, not the goal itself. A content-packed 14-minute video. Don't miss it!

Aug 28, 2022

We've Suspended Coverage of Stocks in the Disruptive Innovation Industry
Image Source: Virgin Galactic. --- We've suspended coverage of stocks in the 'Disruptive Innovation' industry. Order the Exclusive publication to gain access to idea generation that covers some of the most innovative stocks. As a member to the Exclusive publication, you'll receive one income idea, one capital appreciation idea, and one short idea consideration each month! --- The ‘Disruptive Innovation’ industry is unique in almost every way. The companies included don’t necessarily share a similar traditional industry or sector make-up, but they do share one big thing in common: They continue to disrupt the traditional way of doing things. Carvana is changing how consumers buy used cars, Roku is leading the streaming charge against linear TV, Teradyne's industrial robotics technology is fascinating, Beyond Meat is working to alter the substance of the meat products industry, Virgin Galactic wants to make spaceflight accessible for private individuals, Uber is changing how we think about getting from point A to point B through ridesharing, Penn National is aggressively expanding into sports betting with its investment in Barstool Sports, CRISPR Therapeutics' revolutionary gene-editing technology may offer a path to curative solutions for the worst diseases, Wayfair is disrupting how we buy home goods, ETSY is carving out a niche online marketplace in craft items, while Zoom Video has come of age during the outbreak of COVID-19. Others included in this list of stock reports have been around for a while, but are still innovating to meet customer needs. Monster Beverage continues to reinvent the energy drink market, Boston Beer has found new life with its portfolio of new brands, and even GameStop is seeking to find its place after the meme-stock frenzy. There are other companies in this industry and sure to be many more added in the future.

Dec 23, 2021

Some Questions Answered: The Fair Value Estimate Range and ROIC
Image: A snapshot of Facebook's valuation model. Let's cover a few subtle nuances of the fair value estimate range and the calculation behind return on invested capital as it is translated from our valuation infrastructure into the stock reports.

Dec 17, 2020

Congress Seeks to Strike a Deal
Image Shown: The S&P 500 is trading near all-time highs as of December 16, but political risk could cause some choppiness in the near term. The potential for yet another government shutdown is upon us, but according to key leaders on both sides of the aisle, a deal appears to be within reach. Certain provisions may be left out in order to reach an accord sooner rather than later, however. In any case, we remain bullish long term, as the world continues to work to put the COVID-19 pandemic behind it. Funding for most US federal government agencies may run out by the end of this week (December 18) if both sides of the aisle in Congress do not reach an agreement over a potential omnibus bill. In light of the tremendous efforts by the Fed/Treasury to support both the economy and the financial markets since the initial outbreak of COVID-19 to date, we don’t think Congress will do harm by not stepping up to the plate during the biggest global health crisis in the past 100 years. Still, we wanted to keep this news in front of you, as a prolonged shutdown presents a “fat-tail (low probability) risk” to the equity markets, particularly with respect to sentiment and momentum and especially with respect to any legal delays related to President Donald Trump leaving office in the coming weeks. We’re not making any changes to the newsletter portfolios at this time, however.

Dec 10, 2020

FTC Attacks Facebook, Win-Win Scenario for Investors
Image Shown: Facebook Inc has a large digital advertising business with global reach, but it does not have a monopoly on digital advertising or social media by any means. Image Source: Facebook Inc – Third Quarter of 2020 IR Earnings Presentation. Facebook is being sued by the FTC for allegedly engaging in monopolistic activities via its acquisition program. It's important to note that the government is not seizing Facebook's assets and that Facebook investors own the future free cash flow stream of the entire entity under any and every scenario--whether Facebook is retained in current form or whether it is broken into different parts through a potential IPO/spin-off of its Instagram and WhatsApp properties. Under a status quo scenario, we believe Facebook's shares are worth $413 each, an estimate that is backed by the company's vast net cash position and future expected free cash flow stream. In such a scenario, the company would remain one of our favorite ideas, retain its material competitive advantages (i.e. the network effect) and continue to build upon its very healthy financial profile. Further, in light of the FTC news, we believe the market will look to price Facebook more and more on a sum-of-the-parts basis, which could help to accelerate price-to-estimated fair value convergence relative to our intrinsic value estimate. In a highly improbable break-up scenario, Facebook investors could receive more than our status-quo intrinsic value estimate. The IPO market is very, very healthy at the moment, with investor interest in new issues at historic highs and many recent IPOs soaring on their first day of trading. If Facebook is forced to IPO Instagram or WhatsApp, the very, very healthy IPO market could generate proceeds for Facebook investors far in excess of what the implied value of Instagram and WhatsApp contribute to our current $413 per share fair value estimate of the combined company. Further, the cash proceeds of an IPO of Instagram or WhatsApp would stuff the coffers of Facebook's balance sheet with even more excess cash that could be used for material share buybacks or a vast one-time cash dividend--or for other value-generating opportunities. In an IPO or spin-off of Facebook's Instagram or WhatsApp properties, please note that investors are merely capturing the present value of these properties' future free cash flows sooner (not losing them)--and the market may price them at a substantial premium above our implied valuation within Facebook. The FTC news, which was largely expected, will generate headline risk for Facebook's shares, and it will undoubtedly be a source of continued share-price volatility and confusion for investors. In many respects, however, the FTC's attack on Facebook may turn out to be a win-win for Facebook investors. At the very least, if investors start to look at Facebook more and more on a sum-of-the-parts basis (pricing Facebook, Instagram and WhatsApp separately with consideration of current market conditions/relative prices, which are undoubtedly healthy for new issues), it may only accelerate status-quo-scenario price-to-fair value convergence. Facebook remains a top-weighted holding in the Best Ideas Newsletter portfolio, and we will continue to follow developments related to the FTC news.