Valuentum Exclusive Analysis for the Discerning Investor

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Feb 25, 2024

We Remain Bullish; Is This 1995 – The Beginning of a Huge Stock Market Run?
Image: Large cap growth stocks have trounced the performance of the S&P 500, REITs, and bonds since the beginning of 2023. We expect continued outperformance in this area of the market. We’re now roughly four years past the depths of the COVID-19 meltdown, where equities collapsed in February and March of 2020. As the markets began to recover through 2020, our long-term conviction in equities only grew stronger. We think the biggest risk for long-term investors remains staying out of the market on the basis of what could be considered stretched valuation multiples. As we outlined heavily in the book Value Trap, valuation multiples hardly tell the complete story about a company and often omit key long-term earnings growth, cash flow dynamics, and balance sheet health considerations. We remain bullish on equities for the long haul, and we think the next couple years will be incredibly strong. Our best ideas can be found in the Best Ideas Newsletter portfolio, Dividend Growth Newsletter portfolio, High Yield Dividend Newsletter portfolio, ESG Newsletter portfolio, and via the Exclusive publication as well as options idea generation.

Feb 15, 2024

Cisco Looks Cheap at 13x Forward Non-GAAP Earnings But Fundamentals Are Deteriorating
Image: Cisco has ratcheted down expectations during the past couple quarters, and its shares have been choppy for the better part of a year now. We’re not liking what we’re seeing from Cisco Systems these days, and this is a change from our generally more upbeat view during the past several months. Revenue is under pressure, guidance continues to come in lower than expectations, its balance sheet will weaken as a result of its pending deal for Splunk, and free cash flow trends haven’t been as strong as they used to be. The company is adjusting its cost structure with layoffs as it continues to work to transform its business model to be more recurring, but the near term will likely continue to be challenging for the company. If free cash flow does not meaningfully improve in the next couple quarters, we’ll look to remove Cisco from the newsletter portfolios, despite its attractive ~13x forward non-GAAP earnings multiple.

Jan 8, 2024

Thinking Slow: 3 Research Blind Spots That Changed the Investment World
Image Source: EpicTop10.com. We have to be on high alert about how our minds work. PBS recently delivered a four-part series examining how easily our minds are being hacked, and why it is so important to "think slow." When it comes to the active versus passive debate, does the analysis suffer from parameter risk? With respect to empirical, evidence-based analysis, does the analysis have the entire construct wrong? When it comes to short-cut multiples, are we falling into the behavioral trap of thinking on autopilot?

Dec 23, 2023

12 Reasons to Stay Aggressive in 2024
From outperforming simulated newsletter portfolios to fantastic success rates in the Exclusive publication to option ideas and great income-oriented ideas and beyond, we continue to deliver across our simulated newsletter suite as our latest video outlines. It’s hard to know exactly what 2024 will bring in terms of a market return, but the internals of the stock market and the U.S. economy look great to us. The new bull market we’re in could last for years, and as a result, we are staying aggressive with many of our new ideas as we look to benefit from these favorable trends.

Nov 15, 2023

Cisco Puts Up Record Q1 FY 2024 Results, Outlook Hindered By Order Slowdown
Image Source: Cisco. On November 15, Cisco Systems reported strong first quarter results for its fiscal 2024, but the company surprisingly lowered its outlook for the remainder of its fiscal year on a slowdown in new orders. We’re not rushing to judgement of the company, but the revision was rather sizable, and we’ll be taking a close look at our valuation model following the report. We continue to be fans of Cisco’s intent to purchase Splunk, and there may have been some hiccups in the sales cycle as the firm works to close this strategic deal. For now, we’re giving the firm the benefit of the doubt that things will improve in the back half of its fiscal 2024. Cisco remains an idea in both the Best Ideas Newsletter portfolio and Dividend Growth Newsletter portfolio.

Sep 20, 2023

ICYMI: Questions for Valuentum’s Brian Nelson
Valuentum's President Brian Nelson, CFA, answers your questions.

May 30, 2023

Paper: Value and Momentum Within Stocks, Too
Abstract: This paper strives to advance the field of finance in four ways: 1) it extends the theory of the “The Arithmetic of Active Management” to the investor level; 2) it addresses certain data problems of factor-based methods, namely with respect to value and book-to-market ratios, while introducing price-to-fair-value ratios in a factor-based approach; 3) it may lay the foundation for academic literature regarding the Valuentum, the value-timing, and ultra-momentum factors; and 4) it walks through the potential relative outperformance that may be harvested at the intersection of relevant, unique and compensated factors within individual stocks.

Apr 20, 2023

AT&T Disappoints Again
Image: AT&T is back in the doghouse, as free cash flow generation came in worse than expected during its first-quarter 2023 results. Image Source: AT&T. AT&T’s forward estimated dividend yield of 5.6% is attractive at face value, but the economics of its business continue to leave a lot to be desired, in our view. Not only is the company saddled with a tremendous amount of net debt to the tune of a whopping $134.7 billion, resulting in an annualized net debt to adjusted EBITDA ratio of 3.22x, but the company operates a capital-intensive model that eats into its operating cash flow.

Mar 3, 2023

Dividend Increases/Decreases for the Week of March 3
Let's take a look at firms raising/lowering their dividends this week.

Dec 27, 2022

Exclusive Call: What To Expect From Valuentum in 2023
Video: 2022 was a successful year by almost every measure from the simulated Best Ideas Newsletter portfolio and simulated Dividend Growth Newsletter portfolio to the simulated High Yield Dividend Newsletter portfolio and Exclusive publication and beyond. There were some disappointments in 2022, of course, but the year showed the value of a Valuentum membership. Join President of Investment Research Brian Nelson on this year's Exclusive conference call to learn what to expect from Valuentum in 2023. Cheers!