Valuentum Exclusive Analysis for the Discerning Investor

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Jan 5, 2025

Keeping the Horse Before the Cart: Valuentum’s Economic Castle™ Rating
Image shown: An examination of the problem that might arise by focusing exclusively on companies that have economic moats, or sustainable and durable competitive advantages.Without an economic castle, an economic moat doesn’t matter. Let's examine Valuentum's Economic Castle™ rating.

Jan 1, 2025

The Price-to-Earnings Ratio Demystified
Let's examine the price-to-earnings (P/E) ratio. The key takeaways are: 1) without using a discounted cash-flow model, the P/E ratio that should be applied to a company's future expected earnings stream can never be appropriately calculated, and by extension, 2) when investors assign an arbitrary price-to-earnings multiple to a company’s earnings (based on historical trends or industry peers or the market multiple), they are essentially making estimates for all of the drivers behind a discounted cash-flow model in one fell swoop (and sometimes hastily). As earnings for next year are often within sight and can be estimated with some confidence (though this certainly varies among firms), calculating the price-to-earnings ratio via a discounted cash-flow process, in our opinion, is of far greater importance than worrying about whether a firm will beat or miss earnings in its next fiscal year. Because the P/E ratio is a discounted cash-flow model that considers the long-term qualitative dynamics of a particular entity, cash-flow analysis remains the first and most important pillar of our Valuentum Buying Index. And finally, investors cannot ignore valuation analysis or the future. Valuation is an important driver behind stock prices, and it is based on future expectations that can only be estimated. This is just a fact of the markets.

Nov 4, 2024

Berkshire Hathaway’s Operating Earnings, Free Cash Flow Fall in Third Quarter
Image: Berkshire Hathaway has reduced its stake in Apple and Bank of America. Berkshire’s third quarter operating results weren’t great, and the firm noted that it expects pre-tax incurred losses from Hurricane Milton to be between $1.3-$1.5 billion and be reflected in its fourth quarter earnings. Free cash flow has faced some pressure during the first nine months of the year, and Buffett continues to cash out of Apple and Bank of America. Berkshire’s cash balance continues to swell, perhaps indicating that Buffett views the market as overheated at the moment. Total shareholders’ equity was $631.8 billion at the end of September, translating into a price-to-book ratio of 1.54. Shares of Berkshire are not cheap, in our view, but the company remains a key holding in the Best Ideas Newsletter portfolio.

Aug 26, 2024

Berkshire Hathaway’s Cash Balance Swells, Ownership Stake in Apple Substantially Reduced
Image: Berkshire Hathaway reduced its equity stake in Apple by a sizable margin. Berkshire Hathaway continues to execute well across its business portfolio, free cash flow continues to move in the right direction, while Buffett remains prudent with his portfolio management decisions. Shareholders’ equity at the end of June was $608 billion, implying that shares are trading at a 1.6x book value, not cheap. Still, we like shares as a key holding in the Best Ideas Newsletter portfolio.

Jul 12, 2024

JPMorgan Chase’s Return on Capital Shines in Second Quarter
Image Source: Hakan Dahlstrom. On July 12, JPMorgan Chase reported second quarter results that beat expectations on the top line, but came up a bit short on the bottom line. JPMorgan is an important bellwether for the global economy, and its second quarter results spoke of continued strength and high returns on capital. We include Financial Select SPDR in the Best Ideas Newsletter portfolio to capture diversification benefits from the largest financial institutions. Shares of JPM yield 2.2% at the time of this writing.

Jan 15, 2024

Your Role as a Choice Architect
Image: Impact Hub Global Network. Richard Thaler in his groundbreaking book Nudge, co-written with Cass Sunstein, talked about the role of the choice architect. A choice architect is basically someone or some organization that has the responsibility for organizing the context and content in which people make decisions. At Valuentum, we can never provide personalized buy/sell advice, but in providing publishing services, we've opted for the healthy option for members, and that sometimes means you won't find a large selection of dessert options. This isn't a shortcoming of our service (i.e. we know desserts are tempting), but rather a key positive attribute. As we've shown time and time again, you don't need to look far to beat the market return (or, by comparison, to have a healthy diet). If something is not on the menu at Valuentum, it means the chef has something better cooking in the kitchen. Here's to your long-term financial health!

Dec 14, 2023

Brief Note: Just How Good Has Our Stock Selection Been?
Has anyone really done better than this? We hope you have benefited greatly!

Nov 5, 2023

Business as Usual at Berkshire
Image: Berkshire Hathaway continues to be a strong free cash flow generator. Berkshire Hathaway reported third-quarter results on November 4 that were about in-line with what we were expecting. A huge cash balance and strong free cash flow are par for the course at Berkshire, and the company’s stake in Apple continues to power its equity securities portfolio. Year-to-date shares of Berkshire are up more than 13%, but we do admit that some of the luster has come off shares in light of the performance of asset-heavy names across the utilities and energy sectors. Given Berkshire’s strong run the past few years, we’re not as enamored with shares as we once were, but we still think they are worthy of inclusion to the Best Ideas Newsletter portfolio.

Aug 6, 2023

Berkshire’s Stake in Apple Has Been a Boon for Shareholders
Image: Apple has been a blessing for Berkshire Hathaway. Image Source: Berkshire Hathaway’s second-quarter 2023 10-Q. Berkshire Hathaway fits the bill of the types of companies we’re looking for in this market environment. The company holds a nice cash position on the books, to the tune of ~$147.4 billion, while notes payable and other borrowings stood at ~$125.3 billion--good for a solid net cash position. Operating cash flow advanced to ~$21.1 billion through the first six months of the year (up from ~$15.4 billion from the same period last year), while purchases of property, plant, and equipment came in at ~$8.4 billion (up from ~$6.8 billion), good enough for free cash flow generation of ~$12.7 billion year-to-date in 2023 (up from ~$8.5 billion). Berkshire’s strong net cash position and impressive free cash flow generating profile are big reasons why we continue to like shares in the Best Ideas Newsletter portfolio.

May 8, 2023

Long Live Apple and Large Cap Growth!
Image: Since the release of the book Value Trap in December 2018, an ETF that tracks large cap growth (SCHG) has outperformed not only the S&P 500 (SPY), but also the areas of dividend growth (SDY) and small cap value (IWN) by sizable margins. In a world where monetary policy is tightening and regional banks are failing, we maintain our long-held view that big cap tech and large cap growth are the places to be. Since the release of the book Value Trap in December 2018, an ETF that tracks the area of large cap growth (SCHG) has not only outperformed the S&P 500 (SPY), but also the areas of dividend growth (SDY) and small cap value (IWN) by sizable margins. We love the net cash rich balance sheets and strong expected future free cash flow generators within the area of large cap growth, and Apple remains one of our very favorites that fits the mold. Apple is included in both the Best Ideas Newsletter portfolio and Dividend Growth Newsletter portfolio.