Valuentum Exclusive Analysis for the Discerning Investor

Symbol Keyword

Dec 26, 2021

VIDEO/TRANSCRIPT: 2021 Valuentum Exclusive Call: Inflation Is Good
Valuentum's President Brian Michael Nelson, CFA, explains why investors should not fear inflation, why government agencies such as the Fed and Treasury are prioritizing something other than price discovery, why the 10-year Treasury rate is a must-watch metric, and why Valuentum prefers the moaty constituents in large cap growth due to their net cash rich balance sheets, tremendous free cash flow generating potential, and secular growth tailwinds.

Nov 12, 2021

Hard Work and the Trust That Binds
Image: Terry Johnson. It’s easy to forget how much we’ve been through the past two years. Often, we forget how helpful the warning that markets were going to crash was the weekend before they did on February 22, 2020, “Is a Stock Market Crash Coming? – Coronavirus Update and P/E Ratios,” how we thought dollar-cost-averaging made sense at the bottom in March 2020, and how we went “all-in” in April 29, 2020, “ALERT: Going to “Fully Invested” – The Fed and Treasury Have Your Back,” when we saw the writing was on the wall for this blow off top. If nothing else, these three moves alone during the past couple years have paid for a lifetime of subscriptions.

Nov 8, 2021

ASML Holding’s Bright Growth Outlook
Image Shown: Shares of ASML Holding NV are booming higher as demand for its photolithography systems, a crucial part of the semiconductor supply chain, continues to grow at a robust pace. ASML Holding is a tremendous way to play the ongoing boom in semiconductor demand. The firm’s medium-term growth targets are fantastic and supported by surging net bookings for its photolithography systems (clearly there is ample demand here for ASML Holding’s offerings). With a pristine balance sheet, shareholder friendly management team, stellar free cash flow generating abilities, and promising growth outlook, ASML Holding has a lot going for it. The company is a good fit for the ESG Newsletter portfolio, in our view, as ASML Holding scores well on our 1-100 (100 being the best) ESG rating system (94 out of 100).

Nov 5, 2021

Qualcomm Explodes Higher Towards Our Fair Value Estimate; Semiconductor Supply Chain Update
Image Source: Qualcomm's shares have surged toward our fair value estimate. We continue to like shares of this dividend growth giant. Qualcomm remains a free-cash-flow generating juggernaut that has a very healthy dividend. Management surprised the market to the upside with its fiscal fourth-quarter report and guidance and indicated that supply chain issues are “playing out exactly as (they) planned,” as the firm expects supply and demand to be aligned by the second half of 2022. We were pleased by the news and are reiterating our $170 per share fair value estimate and the company as an idea for long-term dividend growth investors.

Jun 1, 2021

ICYMI -- Video: Exclusive 2020 -- Furthering the Financial Discipline
In this 40+ minute video jam-packed with must-watch content, Valuentum's President Brian Nelson talks about the Theory of Universal Valuation and how his work is furthering the financial discipline. Learn the pitfalls of factor investing and modern portfolio theory and how the efficient markets hypothesis holds little substance in the wake of COVID-19. He'll talk about what companies Valuentum likes and why, and which areas he's avoiding. This and more in Valuentum's 2020 Exclusive conference call.

May 4, 2021

Video: Apple’s Cash Based Sources of Intrinsic Value and Dividend Health
Image Shown: Inside an Apple store. Source: Valuentum. Video shown: Valuentum's President Brian Nelson walks through Apple's financial statements to explain the cash-based sources of intrinsic value and how net cash on the balance sheet and future expected free cash flow are key sources of dividend health. This 10-minute video clip is part of a 3+ hour presentation on financial statement analysis provided in April 2021.

Apr 8, 2021

The Best Years Are Ahead
The wind is at our backs. The Federal Reserve, Treasury, and regulatory bodies of the U.S. may have no choice but to keep U.S. markets moving higher. The likelihood of the S&P 500 reaching 2,000 ever again seems remote, and I would not be surprised to see 5,000 on the S&P 500 before we see 2,500-3,000, if the latter may be in the cards. The S&P 500 is trading at ~4,100 at the time of this writing. The high end of our fair value range on the S&P 500 remains just shy of 4,000, but I foresee a massive shift in long-term capital out of traditional bonds into equities this decade (and markets to remain overpriced for some time). Bond yields are paltry and will likely stay that way for some time, requiring advisors to rethink their asset mixes. The stock market looks to be the place to be long term, as it has always been. With all the tools at the disposal of government officials, economic collapse (as in the Great Depression) may no longer be even a minor probability in the decades to come--unlike in the past with the capitalistic mindset that governed the Federal Reserve before the “Lehman collapse."

Feb 8, 2021

Stock Market Outlook for 2021
2020 was one from the history books and a year that will live on in infamy. That said, we are excited for the future as global health authorities are steadily putting an end to the public health crisis created by COVID-19, aided by the quick discovery of safe and viable vaccines. Tech, fintech, and payment processing firms were all big winners in 2020, and we expect that to continue being the case in 2021. Digital advertising, cloud-computing, and e-commerce activities are set to continue dominating their respective fields. Cybersecurity demand is moving higher and the constant threats posed by both governments (usually nations that are hostile to Western interests) and non-state actors highlights how crucial these services are. Retailers with omni-channel selling capabilities are well-positioned to ride the global economic recovery upwards. Green energy firms will continue to grow at a brisk pace in 2021, though the oil & gas industry appears ready for a comeback. The adoption of 5G wireless technologies and smartphones will create immense growth opportunities for smartphone makers, semiconductor players and telecommunications giants. Video streaming services have become ubiquitous over the past decade with room to continue growing as households “cut the cord” and instead opt for several video streaming packages. We’re not too big of fans of old industrial names given their capital-intensive nature relative to capital-light technology or fintech, but there are select names that have appeal. Cryptocurrencies have taken the market by storm as we turn the calendar into 2021, but the traditional banking system remains healthy enough to withstand another shock should it be on the horizon. Our fair value estimate of the S&P 500 remains $3,530-$3,920, but we may still be on a roller coaster ride for the year. Here’s to a great 2021!

Jan 27, 2021

ALERT: Raising Cash in the Newsletter Portfolios
Our research has been absolutely fantastic for a long time, but 2020 may have been our best year yet. With the S&P 500 trading within our fair value estimate range of 3,530-3,920 (and the markets rolling over while showing signs of abnormal behavior), we're raising the cash position in the Best Ideas Newsletter portfolio and Dividend Growth Newsletter portfolio to 10%-20%. For more conservative investors, the high end of this range may even be larger, especially considering the vast "gains" from the March 2020 bottom and the increased systemic risks arising from price-agnostic trading (read Value Trap). The individual holdings will be reduced in proportion to arrive at the new targeted cash weighting in the respective simulated newsletter portfolios. The High Yield Dividend Newsletter and Dividend Growth Newsletter are scheduled for release February 1. We'll have more to say soon.

Jan 24, 2021

Following Up on Leading Semiconductor Equipment Supplier ASML Holding N.V.
Image Source: ASML Holding NV – Fourth Quarter and Full-Year 2020 Earnings IR Presentation. Shares of Netherlands-based ASML Holding N.V., which supplies lithography systems and services to the semiconductor industry, have done incredibly well since we published our note, "ASML Holding Is an Impressive Enterprise with a Pristine Balance Sheet and Rock-Solid Growth Trajectory" article back on April 8, 2020. From April 8 to January 22, shares of ASML more than doubled. We strongly encourage members that have not done so to check out that article, as we laid out how ASML Holding’s lithography systems are an essential part of the semiconductor industry along with our reasoning behind why we view the company’s long-term outlook favorably. We continue to be fans of ASML Holding’s business model. As a leader in an industry supported by numerous secular growth tailwinds (secular trends, such as the rise of AI and cloud-computing, support the outlook for semiconductor demand which in turn supports the outlook for the cutting edge lithography systems used to make these semiconductors), ASML Holding is poised to continue to generate strong revenue growth while maintaining its pricing power.