Valuentum Exclusive Analysis for the Discerning Investor

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Aug 6, 2020

Alphabet Remains a Cash Flow Juggernaut
Image Shown: Alphabet Inc Class C shares, GOOG, are up 27% over the past year as of this writing on August 4. We continue to like shares of GOOG as a top-weighted holding in our Best Ideas Newsletter portfolio. We include Alphabet Inc Class C shares as a top-weighted holding in the simulated Best Ideas Newsletter portfolio, with shares of GOOG trading near their fair value estimate of $1,436 per share as of this writing. Given its pristine balance sheet, promising long-term growth trajectory and resilient business model, we see room for material capital appreciation upside at Alphabet as the top end of our fair value estimate range sits at $1,795 per share of GOOG. During the initial phase of the ongoing coronavirus (‘COVID-19’) pandemic, Alphabet remained a free cash flow generating juggernaut. On July 30, the digital advertising giant reported second quarter 2020 earnings that beat consensus estimates on both the top- and bottom-lines, though the year-over-year decline in its quarterly revenue highlighted the headwinds facing Alphabet’s near-term performance due to the pandemic.

Aug 6, 2020

Facebook’s Growth Story Continues
Image Shown: Shares of Facebook Inc are up ~23% year-to-date as of the end of normal trading hours on August 3. We continue to like shares of FB as a top-weighted holding in our Best Ideas Newsletter portfolio, and we see room for meaningful capital appreciate upside.We continue to like Facebook as a top-weighted holding in the Best Ideas Newsletter portfolio, and we see ample room for further capital appreciation as our fair value estimate sits at $284 per share, far above where shares of FB are trading at as of this writing. Additionally, the top end of our fair value estimate range sits at $355 per share of Facebook. Recent technical strength seen at shares of FB indicates that investors are starting to really warm up to Facebook’s high-quality business model, promising growth outlook, and pristine balance sheet.

Aug 6, 2020

Excerpt from the Second Edition of Value Trap: Theory of Universal Valuation (now available to order!): The Greatest Financial Fraud in History?
With an added Appendix and 40+ page Prologue, the second edition of the 2019 Best Indie Book Award (BIBA) winner for the category of Business takes readers through the COVID-19 crisis, building on the key tenets of the first edition. Value Trap received acclaim from the prestigious Next Generation Indie Book Awards, a Finalist in the category of Business. The text was also a Blue Ink Notable Book as well as a Readers' Favorite 5 Stars, named Honorable Mention in the Non-Fiction - General genre. More detail and new commentary, the second edition of Value Trap is a must read for any serious investor. Brian Michael Nelson, CFA, delivers again.

Aug 4, 2020

Apple Surges Higher Ahead of Stock Split
Image Shown: Shares of Apple Inc have staged an impressive rally since bouncing off their March 2020 lows, with AAPL up ~46% year-to-date as of this writing on August 3. We added shares of Apple back to the Best Ideas Newsletter and Dividend Growth Newsletter portfolios on June 12, 2020. Later on this August, Apple intends on completing a four-for-one stock split. We added Apple back to both the Best Ideas Newsletter and Dividend Growth Newsletter portfolios on June 12, 2020 (link here). Companies that are supported by secular growth tailwinds and pristine balance sheets, such as Apple, are well-positioned to deal with the ongoing coronavirus (‘COVID-19’) pandemic. Shares of AAPL have surged significantly higher since mid-June and are now trading well above the top end of our fair value range as of this writing, but we want to stress here that we like to let our winners run. It is not until after a firm’s technicals turn against it that we would consider removing shares of that firm from our newsletter portfolios. Given its stellar third quarter fiscal 2020 earnings report (period ended June 27, 2020) published on July 27, shares of Apple may have room to run further still.

Jul 28, 2020

AT&T Remains Free Cash Flow King, Though Deleveraging Efforts Are Getting Tougher
Image Shown: AT&T Inc continued to be a free cash flow cow last quarter, though the ongoing pandemic created headwinds for its various businesses. Image Source: AT&T Inc – Second Quarter of 2020 IR Earnings Presentation. The ongoing coronavirus (‘COVID-19’) pandemic has created some very serious headwinds for AT&T, but that did not stop the telecommunications and entertainment giant from being incredibly free cash flow positive last quarter. On July 23, AT&T reported its second quarter 2020 earnings report and we remain confident in the firm’s ability to keep making good on its dividend obligations going forward. Shares of T yield ~7.1% as of this writing, and we include shares of AT&T in our High Yield Dividend Newsletter portfolio.

Jul 24, 2020

Intel’s 7-nm Chips Behind Schedule, Free Cash Flows Remain Strong
Image Shown: Intel Corporation made waves on July 23 when it announced its 7-nm chips were well behind schedule. Image Source: Intel Corporation – Second Quarter Fiscal 2020 IR Earnings Presentation. On July 23, Intel Corp reported second quarter fiscal 2020 earnings (period ended June 27, 2020) that beat both consensus top- and bottom-line estimates. However, shares of INTC dropped during after hours trading that day due to Intel delaying the rollout of its 7-nanometer chips. The company offered full-year guidance for fiscal 2020 that indicated its growth trajectory was continuing in the face of the ongoing coronavirus (‘COVID-19’) pandemic, though investors were largely fixated on the delay of its 7-nm chip offerings.

Jul 23, 2020

Microsoft Closes Out Fiscal 2020
Image Shown: An overview of Microsoft Corporation’s financial performance during the fourth quarter of fiscal 2020. The company reported strong year-over-year revenue growth across its three main business segments. Image Source: Microsoft Corporation – Fourth Quarter Fiscal 2020 Earnings PowerPoint Presentation. On June 12, 2020, we added Microsoft Corp back to the Best Ideas Newsletter and the Dividend Growth Newsletter portfolios. We strongly appreciate Microsoft’s net cash position, high quality cash flow profile, and its long-term outlook, which is underpinned by secular growth tailwinds. On July 22, Microsoft posted fourth quarter fiscal 2020 (period ended June 30, 2020) that beat both consensus top- and bottom-line estimates, though its guidance for the current fiscal quarter was lighter than what analysts had expected. The top end of our fair value estimate range for Microsoft sits at $234 per share, indicating shares of MSFT have room to run further still after climbing ~34% year-to-date as of the end of normal trading hours on July 22 (before taking dividend considerations into account). Additionally, we give Microsoft “EXCELLENT” Dividend Growth and Dividend Safety ratings due to its promising payout growth outlook and stellar Dividend Cushion ratio of 3.9 (which factors in annual double-digit per share dividend increases over the coming fiscal years). Shares of MSFT yield ~1.0% as of this writing.

Jul 22, 2020

IBM’s Cloud Transition Continues
Image Source: International Business Machines Corporation – 2019 Annual Report. On July 20, IBM reported second quarter 2020 earnings that beat both consensus top- and bottom-line estimates. Most of the market’s excitement centered on IBM’s ‘Cloud & Cognitive Software’ segment posting year-over-year revenue growth of ~3% in the second quarter while its company-wide GAAP revenue declined by ~5% year-over-year, though initial gains in IBM’s share price faded away during regular trading hours on July 21. In the earnings press release, IBM noted its “total cloud revenue” grew by 30% year-over-year last quarter. Shares of IBM are trading near their fair value estimate of $129 as of this writing, indicating that shares of IBM appear fairly valued.

Jul 17, 2020

Dividend Increases/Decreases for the Week Ending July 17
Let's take a look at companies that raised/lowered their dividend this week.

Jul 14, 2020

Levi Strauss Skips Dividend Payment
Image Shown: An overview of Levi Strauss & Co.’s historical financials and operational footprint. As you can see, most of Levi Strauss’ sales are conducted through its wholesale segment. The company’s own e-commerce sales channel has historically represented just a small part of Levi Strauss’ total net revenues. Image Source: Levi Strauss & Co. – December 2019 Investor Presentation. On June 7, Levi Strauss & Co. reported second-quarter fiscal 2020 earnings (period ended May 24, 2020) that missed consensus estimates on both the top- and bottom-line. The apparel retailer noted it would reduce its “non-retail, non-manufacturing workforce” headcount by 700 employees to save an annualized $0.1 billion on corporate overhead as the ongoing coronavirus (‘COVID-19’) pandemic has devasted its financial performance. Levi Strauss touted its recent successes in the e-commerce arena but investors still sold off the name in the following days as the firm opted to skip an upcoming dividend payment (and likely due to growing fears over how a second wave of COVID-19 infections in the US and elsewhere would impact the company’s future financial performance).