Valuentum Exclusive Analysis for the Discerning Investor

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Mar 21, 2023

The Power of Expectations: How Financial Advisors Can Improve Client Retention
Image Source: Frédéric Glorieux. This could make the difference between a happy client and a lost client.

Mar 16, 2023

The Transaction Log of the Best Ideas Portfolio
Image Source: GotCredit. View the transaction log of the portfolio of the Best Ideas Newsletter in this article. The Best Ideas Newsletter portfolio and Dividend Growth Newsletter portfolio are not real money portfolios. Results are hypothetical and do not represent actual trading.

Mar 9, 2023

We Woke Up on the Wrong Side of the Bed
Image: Valuentum's President of Investment Research Brian Nelson, CFA. Let's cover five controversial topics today: 1) Large cap growth still dominating small cap value. 2) Who cares about whether fund managers beat their benchmarks. Pick the best group of stocks, right? 3) Dividends are capital appreciation that otherwise would have been achieved had the dividend not been paid. 4) Go figure -- bonds are down again so far in 2023. 5) REITs are underperformers and haven't been reliable dividend payers.

Mar 6, 2023

Markets Bounce Off Technical Support But Not Out of the Woods
Image: The market-cap weighted S&P 500 (SPY) bounced off technical support last week, both the 200-day moving average as well as the breakout of the downtrend line, but while this may push off any leg down in the near term, we won’t hesitate to “raise cash” on a few newsletter portfolio names if a breakthrough of support to the downside happens. Image Source: TradingView. The 200-day moving average remains a key technical level for the market-cap weighted S&P 500. The risks that the market may break through both the 200-day moving average and the breakout of the technical downtrend line remain elevated, but the past week showed a successful test of technical support levels, in our view, and that means to us markets may avoid any substantial leg down for the time being. We continue to be cautious on the equity markets in the near term, and we won’t hesitate to “raise cash” across the newsletter portfolios if the S&P 500 breaks through its 200-day moving average and the breakout of the technical downtrend line.

Feb 3, 2023

Trio of Earnings Reports from Apple, Alphabet, and Amazon Give Pause to Markets
Image Source: Valuentum. Apple’s, Alphabet’s and Amazon’s calendar fourth-quarter results, released February 2, weren’t great, but we’re keeping things in context. Apple had to deal with disruptions in China during the period, while Alphabet is contending with a slowdown in advertising. Both Apple and Alphabet continue to generate tremendous amounts of free cash flow, while boasting considerable net cash positions. Alphabet’s financial profile is second to none. Amazon, on the other hand, continues to burn through free cash flow while it holds a net-neutral balance sheet. We continue to be comfortable including Apple and Alphabet in the newsletter portfolios, but we won’t be considering Amazon anytime soon. Though we expect to make a few tweaks to our valuation models of each, our fair value estimates remain unchanged at this time.

Feb 3, 2023

Dividend Increases/Decreases for the Week of February 3
Let's take a look at firms raising/lowering their dividends this week.

Feb 2, 2023

Meta’s Free Cash Flow Generation Has Returned, But TikTok Has Permanently Changed the Competitive Landscape
Image: Meta Platforms’ free cash flow has bounced back a bit, but the firm’s top-line growth remains challenged as it transitions away from a secular growth powerhouse into a cyclical story with encroaching competition. Image Source: Meta Platforms. We’re loving this nice move higher in the stylistic area of large cap growth, and for those investors seeking broad-based exposure, we think this area is the place to be in the long run. Tesla’s strong financial performance coupled with Meta Platforms’ return to financial discipline are propelling large cap growth higher, but risks to the broader equity markets and economy remain. In any case, with inflation likely peaking in June 2022, fourth-quarter 2022 earnings season coming in better-than-feared, and technical breakouts of key indices across the board from the equal-weighted and market-cap weighted S&P 500 to the NASDAQ-100, equity investors have a lot to cheer about.

Jan 28, 2023

We Don’t Think Intel Will Spoil the Tech Rally
Image Shown: The Invesco QQQ ETF has broken through its technical downtrend, and we don’t think Intel’s poor outlook will derail this tech rally. Image Source: TradingView. Intel no longer is the bellwether it once was. Its market capitalization has dwindled significantly in recent years and now stands at ~116.5 billion, lower than Advanced Micro Devices' market capitalization of ~$121.6 billion, Texas Instruments' market capitalization of ~$158.8 billion, and Nvidia’s market capitalization of ~$501 billion. Taiwan Semiconductor has a market capitalization of ~$431 billion, while ASML Holding has a market capitalization of ~$268 billion. Intel no longer is what it once was, and as such, we don’t think its poor and borderline shocking outlook will derail a tech rally that could have significant legs. We still like these markets, and we don’t think Intel will spoil the party.

Jan 26, 2023

Market-Cap Weighted S&P 500 Breaks Out; Have We Already Seen the Bottom?
Image: The market-cap weighted S&P 500 (SPY) has broken through its downtrend. The markets could be headed meaningfully higher. Image Source: TradingView. The market-cap weighted S&P 500 has broken out of the technical downtrend that defined 2022 following the equal-weight breakout that preceded it. The pace of inflation looks like it peaked in June 2022, and while myriad risks to both the economy and stock market remain, fourth-quarter 2022 earnings season is shaping up better than feared. We maintain our view that the markets remain at critical technical levels, and we continue to monitor earnings season and technical developments closely.

Jan 25, 2023

Microsoft Is Betting Big on Artificial Intelligence (AI); Fiscal Q2 Shows Meager Revenue Growth, Weaker Cash Flow Generation
Image: Microsoft believes artificial intelligence (AI) will be the next platform wave, and the company is going full steam ahead to incorporate AI across its business systems. Image Source: Microsoft. “The age of AI is upon us and Microsoft is powering it. We are witnessing non-linear improvements in capability of foundation models, which we are making available as platforms. And as customers select their cloud providers and invest in new workloads, we are well positioned to capture that opportunity as a leader in AI. We have the most powerful AI supercomputing infrastructure in the cloud. It’s being used by customers and partners like OpenAI to train state-of-the-art models and services, including ChatGPT.” – Microsoft CEO Satya Nadella (January 24, 2023)