Valuentum Exclusive Analysis for the Discerning Investor

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Mar 5, 2024

Alphabet or Microsoft in Artificial Intelligence with Respect to Search? We Like Both
Image Source: SEO. It’s very likely that, if Google search is eventually disrupted, much of the disruption would come from Microsoft given its deep pockets and existing search engine Bing. We continue to include both Alphabet and Microsoft in the Best Ideas Newsletter portfolio as a hedge in this regard. If any share shifts do occur away from Google search, they’ll likely accrue to Microsoft, and with both Alphabet and Microsoft large components of big cap tech and the stylistic area of large cap growth, considering the Schwab Large Cap Growth ETF may be worthwhile. We like both Alphabet and Microsoft and view any share shifts as net neutral to our exposure in the Best Ideas Newsletter portfolio.

Feb 25, 2024

We Remain Bullish; Is This 1995 – The Beginning of a Huge Stock Market Run?
Image: Large cap growth stocks have trounced the performance of the S&P 500, REITs, and bonds since the beginning of 2023. We expect continued outperformance in this area of the market. We’re now roughly four years past the depths of the COVID-19 meltdown, where equities collapsed in February and March of 2020. As the markets began to recover through 2020, our long-term conviction in equities only grew stronger. We think the biggest risk for long-term investors remains staying out of the market on the basis of what could be considered stretched valuation multiples. As we outlined heavily in the book Value Trap, valuation multiples hardly tell the complete story about a company and often omit key long-term earnings growth, cash flow dynamics, and balance sheet health considerations. We remain bullish on equities for the long haul, and we think the next couple years will be incredibly strong. Our best ideas can be found in the Best Ideas Newsletter portfolio, Dividend Growth Newsletter portfolio, High Yield Dividend Newsletter portfolio, ESG Newsletter portfolio, and via the Exclusive publication as well as options idea generation.

Feb 2, 2024

Dividend Increases/Decreases for the Week of February 2
Let's take a look at firms raising/lowering their dividends this week.

Jan 31, 2024

Alphabet, Microsoft Remain Cash-Rich, Secular Growth Powerhouses
Image Source: Shawn Carpenter. All eyes were on Alphabet and Microsoft after the bell January 30. We include both Alphabet and Microsoft in the newsletter portfolios due to their tremendous cash-based sources of intrinsic value: net cash on the balance sheet and free cash flow generation. It would take a monumental shift in the trajectory of these fantastic businesses for us to ever consider removing them from the newsletter portfolios, and we’re reiterating our favorable long-term view on both following their respective calendar fourth-quarter reports.

Jan 25, 2024

Earnings Roundup: TSLA, NEE, IBM, CMCSA, NOW
Image: The Model Y was the best-selling vehicle globally in 2023. Image Source: Tesla. Tesla missed fourth-quarter results, and while the firm continues to generate robust free cash flow with a solid net cash position, uncertainty surrounding the name looms. NextEra makes the cut for ESG investors, and its earnings outlook for the next few years remains robust, even if its dividend growth may slow. IBM is back in growth mode, and the firm is looking to capitalize on watsonx and generative AI. Comcast has a lot of things going for it, and the firm's robust free cash flow generation suggests that future dividend growth will be robust, despite its lofty net debt position. ServiceNow continues to deliver for investors, and it continues to grow at a robust pace.

Jan 24, 2024

Earnings Roundup: NFLX, ASML, T, ABT
Image: Netflix’s substantially improved free cash flow has made it a clear winner in the streaming wars. Image Source: Netflix. Netflix has won the streaming wars and continues to throw off material free cash flow as it lands incremental deals, the latest for WWE Raw. ASML is one of the most prolific innovators in the semiconductor industry, and its quarterly net bookings in the fourth quarter reveal an exciting future, even as revenue is forecast to be flat in 2024. AT&T's earnings outlook for 2024 disappointed, and rising capital spending will pressure free cash flow in 2024. Dividend King Abbott Labs continues to drive strong organic growth rates, exclusive of COVID-19 related weakness, and we expect years of future dividend growth at the company.

Jan 21, 2024

3 Substantial Benefits of Dividend Growth Investing
Image Source: www.epictop10.com. There are three primary benefits of a well-executed dividend growth strategy, one that is carried out with prudence and care and one that pays careful attention to the intrinsic value of the stock and its critical cash-based components. Albert Einstein is reported to have called compound interest the "eighth wonder of the world," but dividend growth investing has the potential to offer long-term investors so much more! Let's explain.

Jan 17, 2024

In the News: MSFT, AAPL, SAVE, ALB
Image: Microsoft and Apple have been strong performers the past several years, with Microsoft recently surpassing Apple’s market capitalization to become the largest entity in the S&P 500. The start of trading in 2024 hasn’t been tracking the way that we like, but it’s way too early to sound the alarm on any sort of correction. The employment markets remain very healthy, both as it relates to unemployment and wage gains, while inflation looks to be largely under control, with the market expecting a number of rate cuts during 2024. We continue to like the areas of big cap tech and large cap growth in the current market environment.

Jan 6, 2024

In the News: Apple, Nvidia, ANSYS
The first week of trading in the new year wasn't very welcome, but we think it is far too early to draw any conclusions about how the rest of the year will be. The Dow Jones Industrial Average, S&P 500, and NASDAQ faced selling pressure in the first week due in part to investors waiting until the new year to book the huge gains garnered during 2023. The market continues to digest critical employment data, as it watches movements in the 10-year Treasury closely, a key benchmark rate for asset pricing that now stands just north of 4%. Many bulls are saying 2024 may be a difficult year after the worst start in the S&P 500 for a new year since 2008, but we remain bullish on our positioning in the newsletter portfolios.

Jan 4, 2024

4 Very Good Reasons Why We Don’t Like Dividends of Banking Stocks
Image: Bank Run in Michigan, USA, February 1933. Source: Public Domain. It’s sometimes easy to lose sight of the fragility of a banking firm’s business model. Let’s examine the reasons why we don’t like banking firms’ dividends. Reason #1: A Bank Run Is Always Possible. Reason #2: Others Have Tried to Invest in Bank Dividends and Have Failed. Reason #3: Cash Flow Is Not Meaningful at Banks. Reason #4: There Are Plenty of Other Options. Let's dig in.