Valuentum Exclusive Analysis for the Discerning Investor

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Nov 30, 2021

We Remain Bullish on Disney’s Capital Appreciation Upside Potential
Image Shown: Shares of The Walt Disney Company have shifted lower over the past month, though are still bullish on its capital appreciation upside. Our fair value estimate sits at $192 per share of Disney. The Walt Disney Company reported fourth-quarter earnings for fiscal 2021 (period ended October 2, 2021) on November 10 that missed consensus top- and bottom-line estimates. While the company’s ‘Disney Parks, Experiences and Products’ segment (includes its theme parks and resorts operations) staged an impressive turnaround last fiscal quarter, its ‘Disney Media and Entertainment Distribution’ segment (includes its video streaming businesses) grew at a slower pace than expected. Shares of Disney sold off after its latest earnings report, though we remain confident that the company’s free cash flow growth outlook remains stellar and continue to view Disney’s capital appreciation upside potential quite favorably. Disney is included as an idea in the Best Ideas Newsletter portfolio.

Nov 12, 2021

Hard Work and the Trust That Binds
Image: Terry Johnson. It’s easy to forget how much we’ve been through the past two years. Often, we forget how helpful the warning that markets were going to crash was the weekend before they did on February 22, 2020, “Is a Stock Market Crash Coming? – Coronavirus Update and P/E Ratios,” how we thought dollar-cost-averaging made sense at the bottom in March 2020, and how we went “all-in” in April 29, 2020, “ALERT: Going to “Fully Invested” – The Fed and Treasury Have Your Back,” when we saw the writing was on the wall for this blow off top. If nothing else, these three moves alone during the past couple years have paid for a lifetime of subscriptions.

Nov 8, 2021

ALERT: High Yield Dividend Newsletter Portfolio Changes
Image: Mike Cohen. Calendar third-quarter results were solid for constituents in the High Yield Dividend Newsletter portfolio, and we look forward to a bright 2022!

Oct 22, 2021

Dividend Increases/Decreases for the Week October 22
Let's take a look at companies that raised/lowered their dividend this week.

Jul 24, 2021

Best Ideas Newsletter Portfolio Soars!
Image shown: The top weighted ideas in the Best Ideas Newsletter portfolio continued to lead the charge during the trading session Friday, July 23. Facebook and Alphabet rallied on favorable reports from social media peers, while Vertex continues to recover thanks in part to encouraging views on CRISPR technology, while Visa looks to be back on track. DPZ had a strong trading session July 22 and experienced some profit taking. Image source: Seeking Alpha. The digital economy is here to stay, and online advertising is not a luxury but rather a necessity. Though many aren’t too big of fans of Facebook, the company, its stock continues to be severely underpriced, as its Shops and Dating features remain under-monetized, while potential at other properties such as Messenger and WhatsApp remain in the early innings, in our view. Our valuation of Facebook doesn’t include the tremendous promise that it holds in other areas of nascent growth and largely only considers Facebook/Instagram, meaning there is further upside potential beyond our fair value estimate range. Alphabet is benefiting from a lot of similar trends.

Jun 1, 2021

ICYMI -- Video: Exclusive 2020 -- Furthering the Financial Discipline
In this 40+ minute video jam-packed with must-watch content, Valuentum's President Brian Nelson talks about the Theory of Universal Valuation and how his work is furthering the financial discipline. Learn the pitfalls of factor investing and modern portfolio theory and how the efficient markets hypothesis holds little substance in the wake of COVID-19. He'll talk about what companies Valuentum likes and why, and which areas he's avoiding. This and more in Valuentum's 2020 Exclusive conference call.

May 24, 2021

Crown Castle Is a Great Income Growth Idea
Image Shown: Crown Castle International Corp has an expansive portfolio of shared wireless infrastructure assets that covers every major market in the US. Image Source: Crown Castle International Corp – First Quarter of 2021 IR Earnings Presentation. We're huge fans of Crown Castle and believe the REIT has a promising dividend growth outlook. Looking ahead, the ongoing buildout of 5G wireless infrastructure in the US, the Internet of Things (‘IoT’) trend, and the potential emergence of smart cities supports the outlook for data demand and ultimately Crown Castle’s ability to grow its cash flows. Its expansive portfolio includes 40,000+ towers, ~80,000 route miles of fiber, and ~80,000 small cell nodes. According to Crown Castle, the REIT has a presence in every major US market. Crown Castle’s contracts generally are long term in nature and come with rent escalators and other provisions that are favorable for the REIT. As of this writing, shares of CCI yield ~2.9%.

May 18, 2021

AT&T Right-Sizing Dividend, WarnerMedia Joining Forces with Discovery
Image Shown: AT&T Inc’s WarnerMedia unit is joining forces with Discovery Inc. This transaction, if it goes through as planned, will create another giant in the video streaming services industry. Image Source: Discovery Inc – Discovery Joining Forces with WarnerMedia IR Presentation. Despite the upcoming rightsizing of its dividend payout in light of a pending spin-off, the telecommunications and media giant AT&T continues to be one of our favorite income generation ideas. We're not making any changes to the newsletter portfolios at this time, and the recent news indicates AT&T’s balance sheet is about to improve significantly.

May 17, 2021

Best Idea Disney’s Outlook Is Bright and Getting Brighter
Image Source: The Walt Disney Company – December 2020 Investor Day Presentation. The Walt Disney Company reported second quarter fiscal 2021 earnings (period ended April 3, 2021) that beat consensus bottom-line estimates but missed consensus top-line estimates. Investors were dismayed that the company’s paid video streaming subscriber base did not grow by as much as expected. However, we are not worried as Disney’s outlook is bright and getting brighter.

Apr 22, 2021

Good News from High Yielding AT&T
Image Source: AT&T. We liked AT&T’s first-quarter results and outlook for 2021 that calls for free cash flow generation to be well in excess of expected cash dividends paid for the year. Investors should be aware of its hefty net debt position, but with a ~7% dividend yield, the company may be hard to pass up for high yield dividend focused investors. We plan to make some tweaks to our valuation model following this report, but our fair value estimate of $34 per share remains unchanged at this time.