Valuentum Exclusive Analysis for the Discerning Investor

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Feb 18, 2020

Newmont Updates Investors Ahead of Earnings
Image Source: Newmont Corporation – January 2020 IR Presentation. Back on January 13, we added Newmont Corp to the Dividend Growth Newsletter portfolio with a modest weighting as part of our shift towards more defensive names in light of rising exogenous headwinds to global economic activity. Some important considerations include Newmont increasing its quarterly payout to $0.25 per share from $0.14 per share, which is expected to be declared at the level in April 2020 (the fourth quarter of 2019 dividend, as management puts it, will be paid out in March 2020 at $0.14 per share). As of this writing, Newmont would yield ~2.2% at the new annualized dividend rate. We like Newmont’s dividend coverage and its Dividend Cushion ratio sits at a solid 2.2x, keeping in mind that ratio is based on its expected future dividend obligations (we have modeled in the large announced payout increase and single-digit annual payout increases on a per share basis going forward).

Feb 4, 2020

Our Reports on Stocks in the Dollar Store and Department Store Industries
The retail discount store industry provides consumable basic needs to customers primarily in the low- and middle-income brackets. More than one third of the industry’s customers live in households that earn less than $20,000 per year, making the group’s results counter-cyclical--as more households generate lower income due to poor economic conditions, store growth and same-store-sales opportunities increase. Still, competition is fierce among constituents and with many other retailers, including grocery stores. But given the niche low-price strategy of participants and their counter-cyclical nature, we like the group. The department store industry faces intense pressure from online retail and fierce competition from smaller retailers and discounters. Firms in the industry tend to have large real estate holdings and carry a diverse range of apparel, accessories, and household goods. With retail sales moving to the Internet, a company’s web presence is as important as its brick-and-mortar locations. The industry is undergoing a massive transformation and not all firms will survive. Brands and proper fashion assortment drive results in the short term, while execution remains key over the long haul.

Jan 23, 2020

Resetting Your Mental Model
Image Source: affen ajlfe. Having the right mental model and using the right information can be the reason why you win or lose in investing.

Jan 4, 2020

Valuentum Exclusive Success Rates Trump Even the Best Quant Hedge Funds
Image: President of Investment Research Brian Nelson, CFA. A new book, “The Man Who Solved the Market,” hit bookshelves last year, and thus far it has been a hit. The text goes into the story of quant hedge fund Renaissance Technologies and its hedge fund, the Medallion Fund, which has put up mammoth returns since inception.

Dec 19, 2019

2019: Another Market Beating Year for the Best Ideas Newsletter Portfolio!
We estimate thus far the Best Ideas Newsletter portfolio return has beat the S&P 500 by 2.8 percentage points during 2019 (34.4% versus 31.6% for the S&P 500, as measured by the SPY). Our move to overweight Apple, Facebook, and Visa worked out wonderfully for members during 2019. We continue to overweight big winners, and we credit this to our team's conviction in our very best ideas. We also made quite the savvy move in rolling over a solid gain in Chipotle (60%+) into even more shares of Apple stock during the year. We're putting some of the best ideas right in front of our membership in full transparency. Berkshire Hathaway's overweighting added some stability to the Best Ideas Newsletter portfolio, but it was a large drag on returns during the year. This is okay - we like the diversification benefits. 2019 was a very, very difficult year to beat the market, but by our estimates, the Best Ideas Newsletter did so, and by a fair margin, particularly for a large cap orientation. Note this kind of outperformance is unique as many money managers continue to trail their benchmarks during 2019. We credit the outperformance to our team's work ethic and the Valuentum methodology. We are disappointed with the current state of active management, and we are working to develop solutions for our membership. We expect to roll out an important survey in the coming months. We continue to encourage members to add the Exclusive to their membership, if they haven't considered this fantastic publication just yet. More on the Exclusive >> The Best Ideas Newsletter portfolio is part of a regular premium membership to Valuentum. More here >>

Oct 12, 2019

ICYMI: Interview with Valuentum's President Brian M. Nelson, CFA
Catch up with Valuentum's President Brian M. Nelson, CFA in a recent interview with dividend growth investor Arne Magnus Lorentzen Ulland of the blog stockles.

Jun 16, 2019

Valuentum's June Best Ideas Newsletter
Image: Page 49, June edition of American Library Association Booklist."I hope that my book Value Trap: Theory of Universal Valuation marks a turning point in the financial research industry. To you and me, 1) looking forward, 2) understanding that stock values are based on future expectations, and 3) calculating intrinsic value is simply par for the course. If other investors are not doing this, it should be no surprise that they are failing miserably. 90% underperformance! I hope my book serves as a wake up call for readers to demand forward-looking analysis and research that calculates a best fair value estimate." -- Brian Nelson, CFA

May 14, 2019

Markets Swooning, Expect Extreme Volatility, Finger on Put-Option Trigger
Image shown: We notified members December 26 that we had moved  the Best Ideas Newsletter portfolio and Dividend Growth Newsletter portfolio to a "fully invested" position, from a 30% and 20% cash "weighting" at the high end of the range, respectively.

Apr 9, 2019

Top Research and Ideas You May Have Missed
Is Quant Value Giving Intrinsic Value Investors a Bad Name? Surely, you don't believe Warren Buffett's "style" is out of favor?

Mar 29, 2019

ATTN: Advisors and Planners -- Disruption Is Looming
"With the commoditization of investment advice and intense competition from robos and other more cost-efficient solutions, growth-minded advisors want to create bespoke experiences for clients." -- WealthManagement.com