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Fundamental data is updated weekly, as of the prior weekend. Please download the Full Report and Dividend Report for any changes.
Aug 12, 2024
Starbucks' Mixed Results Speak to Cautious Consumer Environment
Image Source: Starbucks' Global Impact Report. Starbucks’ fiscal third quarter results weren’t great. Consolidated revenue fell 1%, comparable store sales dropped, while the firm’s non-GAAP earnings per share faced additional pressures. During the fiscal third quarter, Starbucks opened 526 net new stores, ending the period with 39,477 stores -- broken down into 52% company-operated and 48% licensed. Stores in the U.S. and China made up 61% of its global portfolio. Starbucks is getting squeezed by a cautious consumer and higher labor costs, and while we like the company, we’re just not interested in shares at this time.
Aug 9, 2024
Eli Lilly Puts Up Strong Second Quarter Results, Raises Outlook
Image: Shares of Eli Lilly have been strong the past few years. Looking to 2024 full-year guidance, Eli Lilly raised its revenue expectations by $3 billion, upped its reported earnings per share guidance $2.05, to the range of $15.10-$15.60, and increased its non-GAAP earnings per share guidance by $2.60 to the range of $16.10-$16.60, above the consensus forecasts. We continue to like Eli Lilly’s product portfolio, particularly Mounjaro and Zepbound, and we include the Health Care Select Sector SPDR Fund, which includes Eli Lilly as its top weighting, in the Best Ideas Newsletter portfolio.
Aug 9, 2024
Paper: Value and Momentum Within Stocks, Too
Abstract: This paper strives to advance the field of finance in four ways: 1) it extends the theory of the “The Arithmetic of Active Management” to the investor level; 2) it addresses certain data problems of factor-based methods, namely with respect to value and book-to-market ratios, while introducing price-to-fair-value ratios in a factor-based approach; 3) it may lay the foundation for academic literature regarding the Valuentum, the value-timing, and ultra-momentum factors; and 4) it walks through the potential relative outperformance that may be harvested at the intersection of relevant, unique and compensated factors within individual stocks.
Aug 9, 2024
Dividend Increases/Decreases for the Week of August 9
Let's take a look at firms raising/lowering their dividends this week.
Aug 7, 2024
Disney Achieves Profitability Across Combined Streaming Businesses
Image: Disney’s shares are under pressure despite marked improvement in earnings. Disney noted that within its Experiences division, “segment revenue growth was impacted by moderation of consumer demand towards the end of Q3 that exceeded (its) previous expectations.” Though the pace of consumer demand at Disney theme parks remains a big question during the current fiscal fourth quarter, management’s new full year adjusted earnings per share growth target is now 30%, which reveals a company that is making progress from its troubles a couple years ago. We value shares of Disney just shy of $100 each.
Aug 7, 2024
Amazon's Second Quarter Results Were Mixed But Free Cash Flow Improved Significantly
Image: Amazon traded aggressively lower following its second-quarter results. Though Amazon missed second-quarter revenue consensus estimates, and the midpoint of its third-quarter revenue and earnings guidance came in below the consensus forecasts at the time, we continue to point to aggressive growth at AWS coupled with the firm’s strong free cash flow generation as reasons to not be bearish on the stock. We won’t be adding Amazon to any newsletter portfolio as we are already quite tech-heavy, but the company’s share price slide could provide an entry point on a name with strong fundamental momentum.
Aug 4, 2024
Aug 2, 2024
Apple Beats Expectations, Remains a Free Cash Flow Cow
Image: Apple’s shares have done quite well since the beginning of 2022. We liked Apple’s calendar second quarter (fiscal third quarter) results, as the firm outpaced consensus expectations for both Products and Services revenue. Apple’s balance sheet remains pristine, and its strong free cash flow easily covers its dividend. The company continues to buy back stock, and while there were pockets of weakness in the quarterly report, including revenue in Greater China, we like the company’s positioning in artificial intelligence, as we await a strong upgrade cycle for its next-generation iPhone. Shares yield 0.5% at the time of this writing.
Aug 2, 2024
Dividend Increases/Decreases for the Week of August 2
Let's take a look at firms raising/lowering their dividends this week.
Aug 1, 2024
In the News: MO, META, QCOM, PSA, ALB
Image Source: Meta Platforms. Altria's improved performance will be weighted to the second half of 2024. Meta Platforms remains a free cash flow generating powerhouse. Qualcomm's free cash flow has been impressive as well. Public Storage cut its funds from operations (FFO) outlook on weak customer move-in rents driven by the competitive environment, while Albemarle continues to suffer from reduced lithium market pricing.


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