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Oct 24, 2018
Wild Ride in the Markets -- Nelson
Image Source: Spencerville Rodeo. Market volatility has picked up quite a bit of late, and frankly you shouldn’t be the bit surprised. I’ve been quite active explaining the impact that the proliferation of index investing and quantitative investing has had and will have on the marketplace. The more people index or invest on backward-looking empirical criteria, as in most quant models, regardless of future expectations, the more people that are buying everything at any price and holding no matter what, the more people that aren’t making decisions on the basis of underlying valuations, then the more people that can contribute to severe price-to-fair value dislocations. Oct 10, 2018
Centennial Resources: A Pure-Play on the Delaware Basin
Image Source: Centennial Resource website. Centennial Resource Development is an upstream oil & gas company that is solely focused on developing the Delaware Basin, located in West Texas and Southeastern New Mexico. The company was created through the business combination of Centennial Resources Production LLC, Riverstone Holdings LLC, and Silver Run Acquisition Corporation back in 2016. What makes Centennial Resource Development interesting is that is it run by the founder of upstream giant EOG Resources Inc, Mark Papa, who acts as CEO and Chairman of this up-and-coming company. At the end of the second quarter of 2018, Centennial Resource Development had an economic interest in 80,100 net acres (90% operated) within the Delaware Basin. Oct 8, 2018
Best Ideas Newsletter Portfolio Not Bad Thus Far in 2018
Part of what we take pride in at Valuentum is telling things how they are. If things are going great, we let you know. If things aren’t going as good as they could be, we don’t hold back. In the year of crypto and cannabis, 2018 hasn’t been the best year for the simulated Best Ideas Newsletter portfolio, but it hasn’t been bad either. Oct 2, 2018
In the News: Gold, Auto Sales, General Electric
We don’t think gold makes much sense outside perhaps a very diversified portfolio. Auto sales weren’t all that great in September, and some are calling for a bottom in General Electric. Sep 18, 2018
Midstreams Going C-Corp, Should SEC Disallow the Measure Distributable Cash Flow?
It’s important to differentiate the concept of enterprise free cash flow valuation and the idea of capital-market dependence. The uncertainty of the MLP business model remains, as it is clear operators are shunning the MLP business model preferring C-Corps instead. According to work from Global X Funds, now 40% of the energy infrastructure market cap consists of C-Corps, up considerably from just 15% at the end of 2014. Though many simplifications have come with implied distribution cuts, the primary reason for the rise in C-Corps across the midstream space has been the rationalizing of excess MLP valuations to enterprise free cash flow assessments. We encourage the SEC to consider disallowing the use of distributable cash flow, as it is confusing to investors. Sep 13, 2018
In The News: Hurricane Florence, Tariffs and Capital Spending Delays, Kroger and Big Tobacco on the Move
Let’s take a look at some of the top stories across the market, including the impact tariffs are having on capital spending plans and bottom lines and recent developments in big tobacco. Aug 23, 2018
Honeywell Remains a Top Industrial Idea
Image Source: Honeywell. Honeywell continues to perform fantastically, and the company raised its full-year bottom-line guidance for 2018. It boasts a strong Dividend Cushion ratio supported by tremendous free cash flow generation. The company's planned spinoffs remain on track. Aug 22, 2018
Nevro: Volatility Amps Up
Image Source: Nevro Investor Relations. Underscoring the volatile nature of small-cap healthcare companies, shareholders at Nevro are going through a rough period of volatility as it attempts to carve out a larger share for its proprietary pain relief products. Aug 20, 2018
ETE-ETP Rollup and Implied Distribution Cut
We continue to believe that the MLP business model may be a goner, and the recent ETE-ETP rollup is the latest example. Though new capital may come into the space on expectations that there will be premiums in unit-for-unit rollup deals, most of the combinations are coming with implied distribution cuts. Aug 14, 2018
The Inflating Index Fund Bubble
Image Source: Mac.Else von Berlin. The investment industry is changing fast, and we’re happy to be an instrument for change. We’ve been clamoring to make index funds free for a long time, and we’re glad to see it finally happen. Let’s cover the implications of indiscriminate buying regardless of price with the observation that the number of publicly-traded companies is vastly shrinking. How long will the inflating index fund bubble last?
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