Valuentum Exclusive Analysis for the Discerning Investor

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Oct 20, 2015

IBM Continues to Punish Optimists
Big Blue has become the poster child for poor earnings quality. We’ve been sounding this mantra for a few years now. Have you been paying attention?

Oct 20, 2015

More Suggested Reading
We've pulled together a few articles and videos that we call suggested reading. Please have a look at your convenience.

Oct 4, 2015

In The Name of Our Independence and Integrity…For Goodness Sake
The vicious attacks and slanderous falsehoods are inappropriate as they are damaging to our reputation. We won’t stand for it.

Sep 30, 2015

Free Cash Flow Feeds Cracker Barrel’s Dividend Growth
One of our favorite ideas in the restaurant arena, Cracker Barrel recently reported its full-year fiscal 2015 results. Let’s take a look at the company’s reported performance, as well as some dividend ideas within the full-service restaurant space.

Sep 29, 2015

Speculative Stocks Sinking
Risk appetite has been thrown out the window along with high-yield issuers.

Sep 28, 2015

Warning: The Master Limited Partnership Business Model May Not Survive
The master limited partnership business model may not survive this downdraft of the energy cycle as the worst may still be ahead, unfortunately.

Sep 15, 2015

As the World Turns
We’re keeping our eyes on a number of things. First, we’re monitoring property prices in Shanghai and in other larger Chinese cities to assess the potential calamity that falling housing prices and deflation would have on the country’s banking sector and the likelihood of contagion via the British banks, HSBC and Standard Chartered, and the US ones, namely Citigroup and JP Morgan. Second, we’re watching the price of crude oil closely, as its fall will have huge implications on the earnings trajectory of companies that benefit (airlines, restaurants) as well as the ones that suffer (upstream and energy services). The net effect of falling crude oil prices has thus far been negative for S&P 500 earnings, but this may change as the energy sector becomes an ever-smaller part of index construction. Third, who can forget about the Fed, the expected duration of any tightening monetary cycle, and the resulting implications on dividend-paying stocks as Treasury yields rise?

Sep 14, 2015

The Puzzling Attack on Alibaba
Alibaba is not a “dot-bomb” like the infamous blow-ups in the US in the late 1990s/early 2000s. The Chinese e-commerce giant is significantly profitable and free cash flow positive, and growth prospects are tremendous. Calling for a ~15 times multiple on next year’s earnings, as a large publisher has done, where next year’s earnings are but a fraction of the company’s earnings power 5-10 years from now is an attempt, in our view, to punish the stock at a vulnerable time when global economies are shuddering and the Chinese equity markets continue to face immense pressure. Our estimate of the firm’s long-term intrinsic value is significantly higher than its current market price, but the mounting proliferation of fear may very well hurt shares in the near term.

Sep 10, 2015

The Importance of a Holistic Investment Approach
Go beyond the dividend to understand the business…

Sep 3, 2015

Bond Issuance Has Ground to a Halt; Expect Negative 2016 GDP Impact
We won’t feel the true economic impact of China’s collapse until 2016, but that doesn’t mean stocks won’t start discounting economic headwinds right now. Stocks have and always will be forward-looking discounting vehicles.