Valuentum Exclusive Analysis for the Discerning Investor

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Feb 17, 2020

Amazon Contests Microsoft Winning JEDI Contract
Microsoft Corp is a longtime holding in the Dividend Growth Newsletter portfolio and on top of posting great dividend growth historically--from the start of 2010 to the start of 2020, Microsoft’s quarterly dividend rose from $0.13 per share to $0.51 per share, and we see that trajectory continuing going forward--shares of MSFT have been on an upward tear and are up ~73% over the past year as of this writing. Microsoft now trades well above the top end of our fair value estimate range. However, we let our winners run until the technicals start turning against them in a meaningful way. As of this writing, shares of MSFT yield ~1.1% on a forward-looking basis.

Feb 5, 2020

Amazon Posts Blowout Earnings, Shares Back Near 2018 Highs
Image Shown: After reporting fourth quarter earnings for 2019, shares of Amazon Inc have returned to their 2018 highs as of this writing. On January 30, Amazon reported fourth-quarter earnings for 2019 that handily beat consensus expectations. Shares of AMZN are now trading back near their highs first reached in 2018. We like Amazon’s growth trajectory but don’t include Amazon in the newsletter portfolios due to the enormous uncertainty in the company’s key valuation drivers, which has a magnified impact on changes in its fair value estimate. That’s a product of its high operating leverage. Even a ~50 basis point difference in its expected gross margins versus its realized gross margins, for example, could have a profound impact on its intrinsic value and ultimately share price performance. Our fair value estimate sits at $1,972 per share of Amazon, and our fair value estimate range sits at $1,479-$2,465 per share.

Dec 27, 2019

Streaming Wars Roundup
Image Shown: Shares of Netflix Inc came under pressure around the same time that competition in the streaming video space really started to heat up. Those competitive headwinds are only going to build going forward. This is often referred to the start of the “streaming wars” which is what we’ll cover in this article.With so many competitors now entering the streaming space, it will likely become hard for companies to push through price increases unless they are truly producing top tier content. That will make covering enormous content creation liabilities a difficult but not impossible task. Our favorite companies in this space remain Apple and AT&T. Differentiation is possible in this industry but having a strong free cash flow profile (both Apple and AT&T’s free cash flows are simply enormous) is essential to having a chance.

Dec 18, 2019

FedEx’s Earnings Miss
Image Source: FedEx Corporation – 2019 Annual Stockholders Meeting September 2019 IR Presentation. In the days leading up to FedEx Corp latest earnings report where the firm missed by a mile, news broke that Amazon is now blocking third-party sellers that use its marketplace platform from using the FedEx Ground delivery service (which handles North American volumes) to ship to Prime customers. This comes on the heels of FedEx and Amazon ending two significant shipping contracts earlier this year, including the arrangement where FedEx Ground would handle some of Amazon’s packages, a deal that expired at the end of August. Please note that FedEx Ground is a small-package delivery service that caters to America and Canada, and that other FedEx options for certain packages bought through or sold by Amazon are still available. We are still staying away from FedEx as its ability to generate free cash flows remains pressured by its need to invest heavily in the business to keep up with the likes of Amazon and others. FedEx’s dividend payout could be at risk should exogenous shocks (i.e. a breakdown in the partial US-China trade war truce) continue weakening its financial performance.

Dec 13, 2019

Oracle’s Dividend Growth Trajectory Remains Solid
Image Source: Oracle Corporation – Financial Analyst Meeting Presentation, September 2019. On December 12, Oracle Corp reported second quarter earnings for its fiscal 2020 (period ended November 30, 2019). Massive share repurchases reduced Oracle’s diluted outstanding weighted-average share count from 3,908 million in the first half of fiscal 2018 to 3,370 million in the first half of fiscal 2019. That played a key role in boosting Oracle’s EPS performance (diluted GAAP EPS was up 12% year-over-year in the first half of fiscal 2020) as its revenues were broadly flat during this period. We continue to like Oracle in our Dividend Growth Newsletter portfolio given the strength of its free cash flow profile and promising outlook. Shares of ORCL yield 1.7% as of this writing, and its strong Dividend Cushion ratio of 2.7x provides for a solid payout growth trajectory. Shares of Oracle sold off initially on its weaker than expected sales performance last quarter, but we remain optimistic on its future potential as we’ll cover in this note.

Dec 5, 2019

Best Buy’s Rebound Continues
Image Shown: Best Buy Co Inc has staged an impressive rebound over the past few years. This rebound was aided by significant investments in its digital presence, recognizing the core markets Best Buy wanted to target, and ultimately comparable store sales growth. On November 26, Best Buy reported third quarter earnings for its fiscal 2020 (three month period ended November 2, 2019) that beat both top- and bottom-line consensus estimates. Even better, Best Buy raised its guidance for fiscal 2020, largely on the back of stronger than expected same-store sales growth. Best Buy’s update helped send shares of BBY over our fair value estimate of $76 per share, and if this outperformance is sustained, the retailer may march towards the upper end of our fair value range estimate (which currently sits at $95 per share). Shares of BBY yield 2.5% as of this writing, and we like the firm’s dividend growth prospects. However, we caution that Best Buy remains very exposed to the US-China trade war, and we don’t include shares of BBY in our newsletter portfolios in large part due to the downside risks exogenous forces impose.

Nov 22, 2019

Dividend Growth Newsletter Portfolio Holding Microsoft Secures a Big Win
Image Shown: Shares of Microsoft Corporation continue to make new highs and we think MSFT may test the upper end of our fair value range given the company’s improving growth outlook. Shares of Dividend Growth Newsletter portfolio holding Microsoft continue to climb higher. We think shares could test the upper end of our fair value estimate range, which currently sits at $166 per share, comfortably above where Microsoft’s stock is trading at as of this writing (~$149 per share). Recent events have augmented the company’s free cash flow potential, with an eye towards the Joint Enterprise Defense Infrastructure (‘JEDI’) contract win. Shares of MSFT yield ~1.4% as of this writing.

Nov 16, 2019

Walmart Earnings Report Indicates US Consumer Still Strong
Image Shown: Shares of Walmart Inc have performed quite well so far in 2019. That’s arguably due to the ongoing strength of the US consumer and the significant investments Walmart has made into expanding its domestic grocery e-commerce offerings.  There’s a lot of talk of recession right now, but as Walmart’s latest quarterly results show, the US consumer remains resilient. A combination of historically low unemployment rates and modest wage growth in the US has created a bulwark against exogenous shocks, with an eye towards the economic slowdown currently going on in the Eurozone and East Asia. We’ll see how long this paradigm can last. We aren’t interested in adding Walmart to any of our newsletter portfolios at this time, as shares of WMT already trade near the top end of our fair value estimate range (which sits at $119 per share). Shares of WMT yield 1.8% as of this writing. We continue to like the current holdings in both our Best Ideas Newsletter and Dividend Growth Newsletter portfolios.

Nov 3, 2019

Our Reports on Stocks in the Internet Content and Catalog Retail Industry
Image Source: Robert Scoble. We've optimized our technology coverage.

Oct 25, 2019

Amazon Contends with Rising Operating Expenses and Shrinking Gross Margins
Image Shown: Shares of Amazon Inc have stumbled so far in 2019 as the headwinds from rising tariffs, largely a product of the US-China trade war, combined with a competitive cloud computing landscape put downward pressure on its profitability levels. Amazon reported third quarter 2019 earnings after the market close on Thursday October 24 that underwhelmed investor expectations and saw shares plummet after-hours. However, shares of AMZN recovered somewhat throughout the trading session on Friday October 25. We don’t include Amazon in our Best Ideas Newsletter portfolio due in part to its high levels of operating leverage. Small changes in one’s valuation assumptions generally cause large swings in the intrinsic value estimates of a company like Amazon. We like Amazon’s long-term free cash flow generating potential, and our fair value estimate stands at $2,000 per share, but we are still staying away from the company for now. Amazon would have to be heavily discounted relative to the low end of our fair value estimate range (which stands at $1,500 per share as of this writing) before we could get interested in the name as a potential newsletter portfolio addition.