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Fundamental data is updated weekly, as of the prior weekend. Please download the Full Report and Dividend Report for any changes.
May 22, 2025
Target Navigating a Highly Challenging Environment
Image Source: TradingView. Looking to fiscal 2025, Target expects a low-single digit decline in sales and adjusted earnings per share between $7.00-$9.00, when excluding gains from litigation settlements in the first quarter. Target’s results are consistent with an entity that is experiencing macroeconomic and competitive challenges. Walmart and Costco are performing much better than Target, and we don’t expect this to change anytime soon. Target ended the quarter with $2.9 billion in cash and cash equivalents against short- and long-term debt of $15.5 billion. Shares are trading roughly in-line with our fair value estimate.
May 19, 2025
Walmart Talks of Higher Prices Due to Tariffs; Trump Takes Exception
Looking to the second quarter of fiscal 2026, Walmart’s net sales are expected to increase 3.5%-4.5%, which includes a 20 basis point tailwind from its acquisition of Vizio. Looking to all of fiscal 2026, the firm left its guidance unchanged. Net sales are expected to increase 3%-4%, while adjusted operating income is targeted to advance between 3.5%-5.5%, which includes a meaningful headwind from lapping leap year. Adjusted earnings per share is expected to be between $2.50-$2.60, including foreign currency headwinds. Though Walmart’s fiscal first quarter results revealed strength, President Trump took exception to Walmart’s plans to raise prices as a result of tariffs. We like Walmart, but don’t include the stock in any newsletter portfolio. Read more >>
Feb 21, 2025
Walmart’s Earnings Outlook Falls Short of Expectations
Image Source: Walmart. Walmart ended its fiscal year with cash and cash equivalents of $9.0 billion and total debt of $45.8 billion. Operating cash flow for fiscal 2025 was $36.4 billion, an increase of $0.7 billion from last year, while free cash flow remained robust at $12.7 billion. Looking to the first quarter of fiscal 2026, net sales are expected to increase 3%-4%, while adjusted operating income is expected to advance 0.5%-2%, with adjusted earnings per share targeted in the range of $0.57-$0.58, below the $0.65 consensus estimate. For all of fiscal 2026, net sales are anticipated to increase 3%-4%, with adjusted operating income expected to increase 3.5%-5.5%. Adjusted earnings per share is targeted in the range of $2.50-$2.60 for the full year (consensus was at $2.76), inclusive of a $0.05 headwind from currency. Shares yield 0.9%.
Feb 21, 2025
Dividend Increases/Decreases for the Week of February 21
Let's take a look at firms raising/lowering their dividends this week.
Jan 6, 2025
Target Expects Ho Hum Holiday Results
Image Source: Target. For the holiday fourth quarter, Target expects 1.5% comparable sales growth with GAAP and adjusted earnings per share in the range of $1.85-$2.45 (versus $2.64 consensus), translating to a full year expected GAAP and adjusted earnings per share range of $8.30-$8.90. The midpoint of the guidance range was down compared to its prior outlook in the range of $9.00-$9.70 and the consensus mark of $9.52. Target appears to be losing share against Walmart, Amazon and Costco, and there is no clear path to regaining it. Target’s shares yield 3.3% at the time of this writing.
Nov 19, 2024
Walmart Executing Well, Raises Guidance
Image Source: Walmart. Looking ahead to all of fiscal 2025, Walmart now expects constant currency net sales to increase in the range of 4.8%-5.1% versus 3.75%-4.75% previously. Constant currency adjusted operating income is targeted in the range of 8.5%-9.25% growth in the year versus 6.5%-8% previously. Adjusted earnings per share is expected in the range of $2.42-$2.47 up from its prior forecast of $2.35-$2.43. Walmart continues to execute well in the current market environment, and we liked its raised guidance. The high end of our fair value estimate range stands at $90 per share.
Sep 4, 2024
Dollar General's Business Model Challenged By Walmart’s Strength
Image: Dollar General’s shares have been under considerable pressure the past couple years. Dollar General cut its outlook for fiscal 2024. Net sales growth is now expected in the range of 4.7%-5.3% compared to its previous expectation of 6%-6.7%. Same store sales growth is now anticipated in the range of 1%-1.6%, compared to previous expectations of 2%-2.7%. Diluted earnings per share are now targeted in the range of $5.50-$6.20, compared to prior expectations of $6.80-$7.55. Shares of Dollar General plummeted on the news, and we see no reason to jump into the name, particularly given the competitive market environment, with Walmart likely gaining share.
Aug 28, 2024
The Difference Between Speculation and Investment
In this edited video transcript, Brian Nelson, President of Investment Research at Valuentum, discusses the difference between speculation and investment.
Aug 15, 2024
Walmart Raises Its Fiscal 2025 Outlook
Image Source: Walmart. Walmart’s adjusted earnings per share for fiscal 2025 is now targeted in the range of $2.35-$2.43 (was $2.23-$2.37). The company ended the quarter with total debt of $47 billion and cash and cash equivalents of $8.8 billion. Walmart hauled in $5.9 billion in free cash flow during the first six months of the year, well in excess of the $3.3 billion it paid in dividends over the same time period. We liked Walmart’s second quarter report, its raised outlook for fiscal 2025, and the company’s very healthy dividend. Shares yield 1.2% at the time of this writing.
May 22, 2024
Target’s First Quarter Results Weren’t as Good as Walmart’s
Image Source: Target. Though Target is working hard to get back on track, it's difficult for us to grow excited about dabbling in Target’s shares given the stiff 3.1% decline in total revenue in the first quarter coupled with increased competition from Walmart and Costco that won’t be going away. We think Walmart and Costco are much better positioned for the current market environment than Target.


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