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Latest Valuentum Commentary

Nov 9, 2023
Disney’s Free Cash Flow Is Expected to Surge But A Strong Recovery Is Already Priced In
Image Source: Valuentum. On November 8, Disney reported improved fourth-quarter results for its fiscal 2023. Revenue advanced 5% on a year-over-year basis in the quarter, and the firm drove non-GAAP diluted earnings per share to $0.82 from $0.30 in the prior year period. The company’s Disney+ streaming service added 7 million core customers in the quarter, and its commentary that its streaming business would reach profitability in the fourth quarter of next fiscal year was welcome. Cost savings will be key, and the executive team expects free cash flow to grow significantly in fiscal 2024 versus the most recently reported year. All of this was great news, but a massive recovery in free cash flow is already factored into its price. Our $81 fair value estimate remains unchanged.
Aug 18, 2023
Dividend Increases/Decreases for the Week of August 18
Let's take a look at firms raising/lowering their dividends this week.
May 14, 2023
Disney’s 5-Year Returns Have Been Pitiful
Image: Since the beginning of 2018, Disney’s shares have fallen, while the S&P 500 has surged. Though we liked the company more recently, we no longer include shares in the Best Ideas Newsletter portfolio. Disney has its hands full with its feud with Florida Governor DeSantis, a weakening linear television market, and intense rivalries in the streaming market. All of this won’t be solved overnight and might even worsen. From where we stand, investors simply don’t need the complexity of the Disney story at this time, and the company’s 5-year returns tell the story of a troubled company. With shares of Disney largely fairly valued, we won’t be adding the company back to the Best Ideas Newsletter portfolio anytime soon.
May 4, 2023
Paramount Global Cuts Payout, Dividend Cushion Ratio Caught Another!
Image Source: Paramount Global. The Dividend Cushion ratio is not a perfect predictor of dividend health and the risks of a dividend cut, but it’s a pretty darn good one. On May 4, Paramount Global missed expectations for its first-quarter 2023 results on both the top and bottom line and cut its quarterly dividend to $0.05 per quarter (was $0.24). The company’s Dividend Cushion ratio, which considers its balance sheet as well as future expectations of free cash flow relative to future expected cash dividends paid, was -2.5 (negative 2.5). Any ratio below 1 indicates growing risk to the health of the dividend, while any materially negative (below 0) ratio indicates severe risk of a dividend cut in the longer run.
Aug 12, 2022
Dividend Increases/Decreases for the Week of August 12
Let's take a look at firms raising/lowering their dividends this week.
Aug 13, 2021
Dividend Increases/Decreases for the Week August 13
Let's take a look at companies that raised/lowered their dividend this week.
Aug 14, 2020
Dividend Increases/Decreases for the Week August 14
Let's take a look at companies that raised/lowered their dividend this week.
Jun 9, 2020
Our Thoughts on Warner Music Group Going Public
Image Shown: Shares of Warner Music Group Corp were trading comfortably above their initial public offering (‘IPO’) price of $25 per share at of the end of normal trading hours on June 8, after going public on June 3. Warner Music went public on June 3, though shares were sold by the company’s stockholders in the IPO and not the firm itself, meaning these proceeds are not expected to go to Warner Music Group. The company owns various record labels including Atlantic Records, Warner Records, Elektra Records and Parlophone Records along with its global music publishing business Warner Chappell Music. For some background, please note Warner Music Group counts Ed Sheeran, Bruno Mars, and Cardi B as some of its recording artists and on the music publishing business side of things songwriters including Twenty One Pilots, Lizzo and Katy Perry are part of the firm’s team. In 2011, Access Industries purchased Warner Music Group and took the company private after the firm was previously publicly traded from 2005 to 2011.

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