Valuentum Exclusive Analysis for the Discerning Investor

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Nov 27, 2023

How Do We Use the Valuentum Buying Index?
Image: We highlighted Exxon Mobil to start 2022, and the stock was one of the best performers in the S&P 500 last year. Exxon Mobil became a “Valuentum” stock last year, with shares being undervalued, exhibiting a strong technical breakout, and sporting an attractive dividend yield to boot. The stock became a huge winner. Note: Exxon is no longer included in the simulated newsletter portfolios. The image is an excerpt from an email sent to members January 5, 2022.We answer one of the most frequently asked questions about the Valuentum Buying Index.

Sep 4, 2023

Report Updates -- Did You Throw the Baby Out with the Bathwater?
The markets are finally making sense again, and we remain huge fans of big cap tech and the stylistic area of large cap growth. Though entities are starting to register high ratings on the Valuentum Buying Index, we’re not pulling the trigger on either Alibaba or Korn/Ferry in light of the tremendous risks related to U.S-China relations for Alibaba and the lack of fundamental catalysts for Korn/Ferry. That said, should these firms’ technical and momentum indicators shape up, their equity prices could really catch a bid, in our view. The newsletter portfolios continue to deliver in a big way, not only generating outperformance relative to the market-cap weighted S&P 500 during 2022, but also positioning well for the boom in big cap tech and the stylistic area of large cap growth that has materialized in 2023. We’ve said it before, and we’ll say it again: Don’t throw the baby out with the bathwater.

Aug 5, 2023

Apple Breaks Through Uptrend; Expect Modest Market Pullback
Image: Apple has been a strong performer thus far in 2023, but the stock has broken through its uptrend. Further selling may be ahead of shares. In light of Apple’s weighting across major market indices, investors should expect a modest pullback in the markets. On August 3, Apple Inc. reported third-quarter fiscal 2023 results that gave the market a reason to sell its shares. Though the iPhone maker’s quarterly results largely matched the consensus forecasts for both the top and bottom line, year-over-year declines in iPhone, Mac, and iPad sales, while expected, were evident in the quarter, even as its Services business grew meaningfully from last year's period. A technical breakdown in its uptrend sparked selling after the report, but we continue to be in awe of Apple’s financial prowess that continues to showcase a substantial net cash position and tremendous free cash flow generation.

Apr 11, 2023

Markets Don’t Look Bad
Image: The market-capitalization weighted S&P 500 continues to hold its January breakout, while support held in mid-March. The market-capitalization weighted S&P 500 is no longer in a downtrend, and while the regional banking crisis gave investors pause, we’d have to say the markets don’t look bad. From a technical standpoint, the SPY broke through its downtrend in January, while it held support in mid-March. If the S&P 500 can break through the early February near-term highs, technically, things are looking quite good for the beginnings of this nascent market leg-up. It’s been a long road to get to what looks like a “bottom,” but we might have witnessed it in October of last year.

Mar 6, 2023

Markets Bounce Off Technical Support But Not Out of the Woods
Image: The market-cap weighted S&P 500 (SPY) bounced off technical support last week, both the 200-day moving average as well as the breakout of the downtrend line, but while this may push off any leg down in the near term, we won’t hesitate to “raise cash” on a few newsletter portfolio names if a breakthrough of support to the downside happens. Image Source: TradingView. The 200-day moving average remains a key technical level for the market-cap weighted S&P 500. The risks that the market may break through both the 200-day moving average and the breakout of the technical downtrend line remain elevated, but the past week showed a successful test of technical support levels, in our view, and that means to us markets may avoid any substantial leg down for the time being. We continue to be cautious on the equity markets in the near term, and we won’t hesitate to “raise cash” across the newsletter portfolios if the S&P 500 breaks through its 200-day moving average and the breakout of the technical downtrend line.

Feb 23, 2023

This Remains a Technically-Driven Stock Market
Image: We expect the S&P 500 (SPY) to test support at both its technical uptrend and the 200-day moving average. In the event the SPY breaks through technical support, we’d be looking to “raise cash” across the newsletter portfolios. S&P 500 companies will end 2022 with roughly a 4%-5% decline in fourth-quarter 2022 earnings, but earnings season has come in better-than-feared. We expect the Fed to continue to raise rates given recent producer price inflation readings and a continued strong labor market. The 10-year Treasury continues to pose headwinds to asset values, and while many are talking of “disinflation,” we expect the market to remain technically driven and begin to test support at the 200-day moving average across major indices. We believe 2023 will be a choppy year, as we look ahead to better times in 2024.

Feb 22, 2023

Follow Up on Intel’s Dividend Cut: We Will Strive to Do a Better Job Communicating
As noted in our brief note on Intel this morning, “Intel Cuts Dividend, As Expected,” we have now refreshed the company’s reports on the website, with updated Dividend Safety and Dividend Growth Potential ratings, both as VERY POOR. After factoring in Intel’s updated outlook to our valuation model from its fourth-quarter release, our updated fair value estimate is now $25 per share (was $27 per share) and our updated Dividend Cushion ratio is -1.7 (negative 1.7), was 0.4. This includes the dividend cut.

Feb 22, 2023

Intel Cuts Dividend, As Expected
Image Source: Aaron Fulkerson. The Dividend Cushion ratio caught another dividend cut. This time it was Intel’s. With a Dividend Cushion ratio of 0.4, Intel announced February 22 that it has slashed its dividend by nearly two thirds, to $0.125 on a quarterly basis, down from its prior quarterly dividend of $0.365. The company’s estimated forward yield now stands at ~1.9%, and we can’t say that the dividend cut was unexpected given its massive net debt position and significantly weakened free cash flow generation--the two most important components behind an assessment of its cash-based intrinsic value and dividend health.

Feb 2, 2023

Meta’s Free Cash Flow Generation Has Returned, But TikTok Has Permanently Changed the Competitive Landscape
Image: Meta Platforms’ free cash flow has bounced back a bit, but the firm’s top-line growth remains challenged as it transitions away from a secular growth powerhouse into a cyclical story with encroaching competition. Image Source: Meta Platforms. We’re loving this nice move higher in the stylistic area of large cap growth, and for those investors seeking broad-based exposure, we think this area is the place to be in the long run. Tesla’s strong financial performance coupled with Meta Platforms’ return to financial discipline are propelling large cap growth higher, but risks to the broader equity markets and economy remain. In any case, with inflation likely peaking in June 2022, fourth-quarter 2022 earnings season coming in better-than-feared, and technical breakouts of key indices across the board from the equal-weighted and market-cap weighted S&P 500 to the NASDAQ-100, equity investors have a lot to cheer about.

Jan 28, 2023

We Don’t Think Intel Will Spoil the Tech Rally
Image Shown: The Invesco QQQ ETF has broken through its technical downtrend, and we don’t think Intel’s poor outlook will derail this tech rally. Image Source: TradingView. Intel no longer is the bellwether it once was. Its market capitalization has dwindled significantly in recent years and now stands at ~116.5 billion, lower than Advanced Micro Devices' market capitalization of ~$121.6 billion, Texas Instruments' market capitalization of ~$158.8 billion, and Nvidia’s market capitalization of ~$501 billion. Taiwan Semiconductor has a market capitalization of ~$431 billion, while ASML Holding has a market capitalization of ~$268 billion. Intel no longer is what it once was, and as such, we don’t think its poor and borderline shocking outlook will derail a tech rally that could have significant legs. We still like these markets, and we don’t think Intel will spoil the party.