FAQ: How Do We Use the Valuentum Buying Index?
publication date: Oct 11, 2016
author/source: Valuentum Editorial Staff
A version of this article was originally published in August 2012.
How do we use the Valuentum Buying Index (VBI)?
"In my opinion, a golf club is only as good as the player that uses it, and in a similar light, a financial model or a rating system is only as good as the user that applies it."
By Brian Nelson, CFA
Hope you are doing great!
We often receive questions about how we use the Valuentum Buying Index (VBI) rating system, but I think it is equally important to mention that it is only one of the many facets of our website and services. For example, if you haven't checked out the Dividend Cushion ratios on the stocks in your portfolio or the dividend growth product (from individual reports to the newsletter and beyond), surely you are not maximizing your membership! We love dividends, but you can also trust us to make sure you're aware of the real risks of any dividend strategy in today's market.
No matter your strategy or process though, the Valuentum Buying Index rating system is still a helpful tool to have at your disposal, even if you are not using it. Admittedly, the VBI, as we call it, is not as easy to use as 1, 2, 3, or even buying 9s and 10s and selling 1s and 2s until their VBI changes upon the next update. Within any quantitative process, we value the human, qualitative overlay, which captures a wealth of experience and common sense. We want to make sure that we're surfacing the best ideas for members, and flying blind is never a good strategy, in my opinion. With prudence and care, the VBI process is carried out.
In probably one of the most obvious cases, for example, an experienced investor knows when a price-to-earnings (P/E) ratio isn't informative (as in the case of negative or negligible earnings), but a quantitative rating system that uses a P/E ratio, which the VBI does, may not know any better. Of course the VBI has checks and balances to adjust for such instances, but I believe the human, qualitative overlay is still extremely important, especially when considering various business models and unique "un-modelable" risks (particularly with respect to the banks). In my opinion, a golf club is only as good as the player that uses it, and in a similar light, a financial model or a rating system is only as good as the user that applies it.
That said, we stake so much on the performance of the portfolios in the Best Ideas Newsletter and Dividend Growth Newsletter. They represent the outcome of all of the work we do on the website, rolled into one final assessment: our best ideas for each respective strategy. Sure we have other screens on the website, but those are just screens -- listings of companies with similar data and information. The ideas in the portfolios in the Best Ideas Newsletter and Dividend Growth Newsletter have undergone a painstaking process with our analyst team to ensure that we're delivering the very best to members within a portfolio setting. The thoughts behind the weighting of each idea and the portfolio management process revealed in full transparency on a month to month basis may be worth the cost of a membership alone, even if you're not using the portfolios!
Here's why. In a market environment where more than 90% of large-cap funds have trailed the S&P 500 in the 5-year period ending August 31, 2016, the Best Ideas Newsletter portfolio has exceeded the market return by 33 percentage points over a similar time period. Absolutely phenomenal. What's more, we didn't hide behind standard quarterly reviews and updates either, sending out pre-packaged information to members. We showcased this performance in full transparency, and we had to write every single day to capture interest! When patience is the secret to success in investing, do you know how much could have gone wrong when having to produce daily? Obviously, we're very disciplined, but we also credit the portfolio outperformance to the VBI methodology itself.
Let's talk about how the VBI helps to inform which ideas we include in the Best Ideas Newsletter portfolio (not the Dividend Growth Newsletter portfolio as additional criteria must be met, namely as it relates to yield and Dividend Cushion ratio). That's such an important word, "informs." Notice how we didn't say "dictate" in this reference. For starters, we've noticed via our statistical backtesting that the momentum factor behind our process tends to be much more pronounced (powerful) over longer periods of time. This was one of the interesting findings of our academic white paper study. We try to replicate this dynamic with the update cycle of our reports (and the time horizon for our ideas to work out). That's why our reports are updated regularly (generally on a quarterly basis) or after material events and not daily or weekly. Perhaps most practically though, we don't want to whipsaw our membership, nor do we think churn is the way to generate outperformance.
Though the time frame varies depending on each idea that we consider for the Best Ideas Newsletter portfolio, we expect our best ideas to generally work out over a 12-24 month time horizon (on average). Our holding period is targeted to be much, much longer for some ideas in the Dividend Growth Newsletter portfolio, however. Here is where the VBI rating system becomes somewhat more advanced than a simple 1, 2, 3. We tend to add stocks to the Best Ideas Newsletter portfolio when they register a 9 or 10 on the Valuentum Buying Index (VBI), hold them for some time depending on a number of variables (the VBI, market conditions, sector weightings within the portfolio itself), and then we tend to remove stocks from our Best Ideas Newsletter portfolio when they register a 1 or 2 on the VBI. You'll notice that we have a qualitative overlay for the Best Ideas Newsletter portfolio (and one for the Dividend Growth Newsletter portfolio, too, though it is based on dividend-related considerations).
Image shown above for educational purposes only.
But why don't we churn and burn by updating daily and trading a lot? Obviously, we don't think that's the secret to success. In quite the opposite approach, we like to maximize profits on every idea that we pursue, with the understanding that momentum does exist and that prices over and under shoot intrinsic value all of the time. For example, as shown in the image above, a value strategy (10 --> 5) truncates potential profits, while a momentum strategy (4 --> 1) ignores profits generated via value assessments. At Valuentum, we're after the entire profit potential of each idea. So, for example, if a firm is added to the Best Ideas Newsletter portfolio as a 10 and is removed as a 5, we would have truncated profit potential by not letting it run to lower ratings. Most of our highly-rated Valuentum Buying Index rated stocks have generated the vast outperformance of the Best Ideas portfolio, but these stocks' ratings declined over time as they were held (a good thing -- a declining VBI rating generally means the share price has advanced, assuming all else is well).
Image shown above for educational purposes only.
Critically, regarding the Valuentum process, as it is executed in the Best Ideas Newsletter portfolio, we do not add all firms that register a 9 or 10, nor do we add the ones we do immediately thereafter. For example, Google (GOOG, GOOGL), now Alphabet, a current Best Ideas Newsletter portfolio holding, registered a 10 on the Valuentum Buying Index, but we remained patient and didn't add the company to our portfolio until after it reported earnings at the time, providing us with an even better entry point (as new information came to light). There are more "structural/timing" instances like the one with Alphabet, for example, that are extremely difficult to capture in any model, and understandably aren't as obvious to those outside looking in.
But why not add every highly-rated stock to the Best Ideas Newsletter portfolio? Think of it as if you were to imagine a value investor not adding and holding every undervalued stock to his/her portfolio. He or she wants the very best ones -- obviously, that means having to leave some good ideas behind. And then, of course, there are always tactical and sector weighting considerations in any portfolio construction, yet another reason why the human touch remains a vital aspect of the Valuentum process. At the core of how we use the VBI in the Best Ideas Newsletter portfolio, however, is a qualitative portfolio management overlay. The VBI rating helps to inform the process, but the Valuentum team makes the allocation decisions of the newsletter portfolio on the basis of a number of other firm-specific and portfolio criteria. Sometimes, under certain market conditions, we may have to relax the VBI criteria entirely in order to achieve newsletter portfolio goals.
Okay, a couple examples. Take pre-split eBay (EBAY), which many years ago included PayPal (PYPL), as an example of our process in action. The stock initially flashed a rating of 10 in late September 2011, and we added it to the Best Ideas Newsletter portfolio. The VBI rating changed to a 6 in December 2011 and then back to a 10 in May 2012, but because the rating never breached a 1 or 2, we did not remove the position from the Best Ideas Newsletter portfolio. In the case of pre-split eBay, we sought to capture the entire pricing cycle and avoided truncating it as most pure value investors often do (and what we would had done, if we had removed the stock at that time). In many ways, pre-split eBay/PayPal has become one of the better examples to use for illustrating the prolonged outperformance driven by undervalued stocks that are beginning to generate good momentum. [We no longer include eBay in the newsletter portfolio, but its split-off PayPal is retained.]
There have been more straightforward opportunities in the Best Ideas Newsletter portfolio, too, especially in the case of EDAC Tech, which had tripled since it was added to the newsletter portfolio (never registering below a 9 along the way), and then of course, Apple (APPL), Visa (V) and Altria (MO), but it is usually through the nuances of the process that one truly comes to understand it. The VBI ratings on each stock's most recent 16-page report, downloadable directly from the website at www.valuentum.com, reflect our current opinion on the company. The VBI rating system, as with all methodologies, helps to inform the investment decision process, but in constructing the newsletter portfolio, a qualitative overlay is not only necessary, in my view, but helps to optimize performance. If the returns of the Best Ideas Newsletter portfolio during the past 5+ years are any measure of the VBI rating system, it is performing fantastically well.
Thank you so much for reading!