Valuentum Exclusive Analysis for the Discerning Investor

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Feb 27, 2024

Berkshire Hathaway Caps Off Strong Year of Operating Earnings Growth
Image: Berkshire’s operating earnings experienced a strong advance during 2023 from last year’s levels. On February 24, Berkshire Hathaway reported strong fourth-quarter results that capped off a year where operating earnings advanced 21% on a year-over-year basis. Warren Buffett tipped his hat to his long-time partner Charlie Munger, who passed away in November of last year, crediting him as the architect of Berkshire and himself merely in charge of the “construction crew.” There weren’t many surprises in the annual report, and Buffett made several references to areas that he has long talked about in the past, including pointing investors to operating earnings, as opposed to net income, which includes unrealized capital gains that can make reported results seem more volatile. All things considered, we liked Berkshire’s update, and we continue to like the firm as an idea in the Best Ideas Newsletter portfolio.

Feb 25, 2024

We Remain Bullish; Is This 1995 – The Beginning of a Huge Stock Market Run?
Image: Large cap growth stocks have trounced the performance of the S&P 500, REITs, and bonds since the beginning of 2023. We expect continued outperformance in this area of the market. We’re now roughly four years past the depths of the COVID-19 meltdown, where equities collapsed in February and March of 2020. As the markets began to recover through 2020, our long-term conviction in equities only grew stronger. We think the biggest risk for long-term investors remains staying out of the market on the basis of what could be considered stretched valuation multiples. As we outlined heavily in the book Value Trap, valuation multiples hardly tell the complete story about a company and often omit key long-term earnings growth, cash flow dynamics, and balance sheet health considerations. We remain bullish on equities for the long haul, and we think the next couple years will be incredibly strong. Our best ideas can be found in the Best Ideas Newsletter portfolio, Dividend Growth Newsletter portfolio, High Yield Dividend Newsletter portfolio, ESG Newsletter portfolio, and via the Exclusive publication as well as options idea generation.

Jan 8, 2024

Thinking Slow: 3 Research Blind Spots That Changed the Investment World
Image Source: EpicTop10.com. We have to be on high alert about how our minds work. PBS recently delivered a four-part series examining how easily our minds are being hacked, and why it is so important to "think slow." When it comes to the active versus passive debate, does the analysis suffer from parameter risk? With respect to empirical, evidence-based analysis, does the analysis have the entire construct wrong? When it comes to short-cut multiples, are we falling into the behavioral trap of thinking on autopilot?

Dec 23, 2023

12 Reasons to Stay Aggressive in 2024
From outperforming simulated newsletter portfolios to fantastic success rates in the Exclusive publication to option ideas and great income-oriented ideas and beyond, we continue to deliver across our simulated newsletter suite as our latest video outlines. It’s hard to know exactly what 2024 will bring in terms of a market return, but the internals of the stock market and the U.S. economy look great to us. The new bull market we’re in could last for years, and as a result, we are staying aggressive with many of our new ideas as we look to benefit from these favorable trends.

Sep 20, 2023

ICYMI: Questions for Valuentum’s Brian Nelson
Valuentum's President Brian Nelson, CFA, answers your questions.

May 30, 2023

Paper: Value and Momentum Within Stocks, Too
Abstract: This paper strives to advance the field of finance in four ways: 1) it extends the theory of the “The Arithmetic of Active Management” to the investor level; 2) it addresses certain data problems of factor-based methods, namely with respect to value and book-to-market ratios, while introducing price-to-fair-value ratios in a factor-based approach; 3) it may lay the foundation for academic literature regarding the Valuentum, the value-timing, and ultra-momentum factors; and 4) it walks through the potential relative outperformance that may be harvested at the intersection of relevant, unique and compensated factors within individual stocks.

Mar 14, 2023

Norfolk Southern’s Environmental and Safety Troubles Plague Stock
Image: Norfolk Southern’s environmental troubles have sent its stock back to pre-pandemic levels. The company is yet another example of why companies cannot take for granted how their operations can negatively impact the environment. Image Source: TradingView. Neglecting the environment and employee and consumer/resident safety is a sure way for companies to end up in hot water. Norfolk Southern is under special investigation by the National Transportation Safety Board (NTSB) for a series of accidents during the past couple years, punctuated by the derailment and chemical spill occurring in East Palestine, Ohio, in early February. Though the firm’s costs associated with the high-profile train derailment may be capped at $75 million, its reputation may be irreparably harmed. Norfolk Southern is a prime example of why ESG investing has an important role in the marketplace, as the company simply dropped the ball when it came to ‘Environmental’ and ‘Social’ considerations within the ESG construct.

Mar 6, 2023

Markets Bounce Off Technical Support But Not Out of the Woods
Image: The market-cap weighted S&P 500 (SPY) bounced off technical support last week, both the 200-day moving average as well as the breakout of the downtrend line, but while this may push off any leg down in the near term, we won’t hesitate to “raise cash” on a few newsletter portfolio names if a breakthrough of support to the downside happens. Image Source: TradingView. The 200-day moving average remains a key technical level for the market-cap weighted S&P 500. The risks that the market may break through both the 200-day moving average and the breakout of the technical downtrend line remain elevated, but the past week showed a successful test of technical support levels, in our view, and that means to us markets may avoid any substantial leg down for the time being. We continue to be cautious on the equity markets in the near term, and we won’t hesitate to “raise cash” across the newsletter portfolios if the S&P 500 breaks through its 200-day moving average and the breakout of the technical downtrend line.

Jan 27, 2023

Dividend Increases/Decreases for the Week of January 27
Let's take a look at firms raising/lowering their dividends this week.

Dec 27, 2022

Exclusive Call: What To Expect From Valuentum in 2023
Video: 2022 was a successful year by almost every measure from the simulated Best Ideas Newsletter portfolio and simulated Dividend Growth Newsletter portfolio to the simulated High Yield Dividend Newsletter portfolio and Exclusive publication and beyond. There were some disappointments in 2022, of course, but the year showed the value of a Valuentum membership. Join President of Investment Research Brian Nelson on this year's Exclusive conference call to learn what to expect from Valuentum in 2023. Cheers!