Fundamental data is updated weekly, as of the prior weekend. Please download the Full Report and Dividend Report for any changes.
Latest Valuentum Commentary
Jan 15, 2023
Is It Time To Turn Bullish? Inflation Tamed?
The link to download the January 2023 edition of the Best Ideas Newsletter is in this article!
Dec 20, 2022
Stock Market Locked in Technical Downtrend; Millionaires Expect More Pain in 2023
Image: The stock market has been locked in a downtrend through all of 2022, and the latest bull trap has spoiled the Santa Claus rally. 2023 may be an equally rough year. This market just doesn’t want to go higher in the near term, and the latest bull trap wasn’t encouraging at all. We think long term investors should stay the course, but it is looking more and more like we won’t see a stock market bottom until sometime in 2023. Santa brought coal this year.
Sep 21, 2022
Fed Raises 75 Basis Points; Food Price Inflation Continues to Wreak Havoc on Consumer Budgets
Image Source: Federal Reserve. The Fed upped its key benchmark rate to the range of 3%-3.25% on September 21, but it may not be enough to stem the rise in inflation. We think the market has further room to fall.
Aug 14, 2022
Stocks Surge: Strong S&P 500 Earnings Growth Expected, Headline Scares With Inflation Tamed, Interest Rates Still Low
Image Source: BLS. The pace of inflation looks like it may slow down considerably in 2023 as sequential monthly increases pause their advance. Everybody seems to be looking to compare this market to another market sometime in the past, but regardless of which analog you read about, there is one thing that every pullback, crises, or calamity has had in common: The markets eventually returned to all-time highs. That’s what we’re betting on. Some say we could see new highs by the end of the year, but for us, we’re okay if it takes some time longer than that. The past few years have simply been awesome for equity returns, to say the least! Regardless, those higher nominal input prices that everyone is talking about today will eventually act as a launchpad for nominal earnings and nominal equity prices in the future, pushing them ever higher, in our view. What more can we say, we continue to like stocks for the long haul!
Jun 14, 2022
Stocks Up 70%+ Since COVID-19 Pandemic Bottom, Best Ideas Outperforming So Far in 2022
Image Source: Mike Cohen. Investors should be looking for opportunities today, while others around them are panicking, especially those that leveraged into crypto many months ago near the peak. We continue to be huge fans of the areas of large cap growth and big cap tech as these areas not only are flush with entities that have strong cash-based sources of intrinsic value but also have been beaten down unfairly in recent months, in our view. It may be hard to believe, but we’re staying the course. We like stocks for the long haul, and we don’t expect anything like what happened during the COVID-19 meltdown or the Great Financial Crisis. This is but a "normal" bear market in our view, and we still believe stocks could make a huge rebound in the near term.
Apr 26, 2022
Dividend Growth Idea Lockheed Martin Doing Its Best to Arm Western Allies
Image Shown: Dividend growth idea Lockheed Martin Corporation is very shareholder friendly. The defense contractor is doing its best to arm Ukraine and other Western allies during these difficult times. Image Source: Lockheed Martin Corporation – First Quarter of Fiscal 2022 IR Earnings Presentation. The Russian invasion of Ukraine in February 2022 and simmering geopolitical tensions in East Asia between Western aligned nations and China over Taiwan and other issues have created a backdrop that is conducive to significant increases in national defense spending. Though we hope peace prevails soon, the realities on the ground in Ukraine and elsewhere call for North Atlantic Treaty Organization (‘NATO’) member nations and other Western aligned nations to ramp up their military budgets to deter future threats and to prepare for worst case scenarios.
Nov 16, 2020
Value Is Not Static and the Qualitative Overlay Is Vital to Our Process
With prudence and care, the Valuentum Buying Index process and its components are carried out. Our analyst team spends most of its time thinking about the intrinsic value of companies within the context of a discounted cash-flow model and evaluating the risk profile of a company's revenue model. We have checks and balances, too. First, we use a fair value range in our valuation approach as we embrace the very important concept that value is a range and not a point estimate. A relative value overlay as the second pillar helps to add conviction in the discounted cash-flow process, while a technical and momentum overlay seeks to provide confirmation in all of the valuation work. There's a lot happening behind the scenes even before a VBI rating is published, but it will always be just one factor to consider. Within any process, of course, we value the human, qualitative overlay, which captures a wealth of experience and common sense. We strive to surface our best ideas for members.
Sep 9, 2020
This Stock Market Doesn't Scare Me
Image Source: EpicTop10.com. Markets are forward looking, and it's very likely we'll see a nice bounce back to north of $200 in S&P 500 earnings per share in 2022 or 2023 (pre-COVID-19 numbers were an achievable $196 per share for 2021), meaning that after the next few months, with political risk now behind us at that time, too, come January 2021, the markets, today, imply they are trading at 16-17x forward earnings, a very reasonable multiple given the Fed/Treasury "put" and the implicit "backing" via equity purchases coupled with the prospect for inflation. Frankly, I'm just not understanding the bears. Right now, the market is experiencing some profit taking, some hedging, some rotation, but not much more than this.
Sep 8, 2020
Macy’s Is Treading Water for Now
Image Shown: Shares of Macy’s Inc have flatlined since crashing during the first three months of calendar year 2020 as investors await signs of the embattled retailer’s turnaround strategy taking hold. On September 2, embattled retailer Macy’s reported second quarter fiscal 2020 earnings (period ended August 1, 2020) that saw the firm’s comparable sales drop 34.7% year-over-year at stores owned by Macy’s due primarily to physical store closures brought on by the ongoing coronavirus (‘COVID-19’) pandemic. The year-over-year decline in comparable sales deepened to 35.1% when including stores owned and licensed by Macy’s. Digital sales offered some reprieve as those were up 53% year-over-year last fiscal quarter, with digital sales as a percentage of the retailer’s total sales at its owned stores coming in at 54%.
Sep 2, 2020
ALERT: Markets Now Fairly Valued
Image Source: Sam Valadi. Long-term investing is a great proposition. You have an incredible advantage over most professional investors that have to deliver on a quarterly or annual basis. The reason is due to something called time horizon arbitrage.
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The High Yield Dividend Newsletter, Best Ideas Newsletter, Dividend Growth Newsletter, Nelson Exclusive publication, and any reports, articles and content found on this website are for information purposes only and should not be considered a solicitation to buy or sell any security. The sources of the data used on this website are believed by Valuentum to be reliable, but the data’s accuracy, completeness or interpretation cannot be guaranteed. Valuentum is not responsible for any errors or omissions or for results obtained from the use of its newsletters, reports, commentary, or publications and accepts no liability for how readers may choose to utilize the content. Valuentum is not a money manager, is not a registered investment advisor and does not offer brokerage or investment banking services. Valuentum, its employees, and affiliates may have long, short or derivative positions in the stock or stocks mentioned on this site.