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Jul 29, 2018
AbbVie’s Outlook Remains Blurred
Image Source: Global Panorama. We remain bearish on the outlook for AbbVie as we do not believe the clinical pipeline will be able to adequately offset the loss of revenue when key product Humira loses patent protection beginning in October as a biosimilar enters the European market.
Jul 13, 2018
What Are the Downside Risks of Gilead Sciences?
We think the risk-reward at Gilead remains positively skewed in investors’ favor, but let’s examine the downside case for Gilead Sciences so there are no surprises. It’s always a good approach to evaluate where an investor may go wrong with an investment idea, and assessing upside and downside cases, as in a fair value range, remains par for the course.
May 14, 2018
Top 5 Burning Questions on Gilead Sciences
Image Source: Gilead Lab. We felt answers to a few burning questions pertaining to the abysmal first-quarter 2018 earnings release by Gilead Sciences would be of value to our readers. We are not in the least bit impressed by the earnings print, but we feel patience may be well rewarded. The Questions: 1. When will the decline in the Hepatitis C franchise abate? 2. Which new product will drive future revenue growth? 3. Will Cytokine Release Syndrome sink the potential of Yescarta? 4. How durable is Gilead's HIV franchise? 5. What else is in Gilead's pipeline?
May 3, 2018
Gilead Sciences at the Crossroads; HIV and Oncology Franchises Promising
Image Source: Gilead Sciences' first-quarter 2018 results. The loss of a key revenue-generating molecule is a tough, yet oftentimes manageable, portion of a pharma entity’s overall life cycle. Gilead Sciences is in the midst of a key turnaround as the loss of revenue from its Hepatitis C franchise is beginning to abate, while new novel treatments embark on the early stages of their respective revenue cycles. That said, we'd like to see traction in its HIV and oncology franchises, and perhaps the addition of a new franchise to the portfolio, or we will sour on the stock long-term.
May 3, 2018
Growth Continues at Bristol-Myers; Eliquis Fantastic
Image Source: Bristol-Myers. Bristol Myers Squibb continues to put up nice revenue growth as demand for Eliquis is coming in better than expectations. The company’s hopes to win first-line therapy in combination therapy for non-small cell lung cancer with Opdivo have been dealt a severe blow, however. We haven’t liked Bristol-Myers' share-price performance of late and remain on the sidelines. However, we are watching its equity closely for addition to the simulated newsletter portfolios.
Apr 30, 2018
Portfolio Diversification Begins at Alexion; Shares Cheap
Image Source: Alexion. We view the acquisition of differentiated, late-stage molecules at an attractive rate as the optimal use of free cash flow for many in the biotech industry. The finite commercial life of a patented drug forces continued innovation as near-total revenue erosion is a certainty once patent protection has lapsed. Let’s review some of the recent events at Alexion to gain a further understanding of the underlying trends affecting the business.
Apr 23, 2018
Incyte’s Ongoing Disappointments and Ultragenyx’s Exciting Development
Image shown: Ultragenyx's promising pipeline of opportunities. Ultragenyx March 2018 Presentation. The pharma/biotech sector, unlike other mainline industries, is driven by the clinical data readouts on the next-gen molecules in the clinical pipeline. We have witnessed many exaggerated moves with an often-binary outcome on the smaller single molecule entities, but we also have witnessed a negligible impact on the broader, more-diverse industry behemoths. We wanted to touch on a few recent data readouts to illustrate the volatile, risky yet potentially lucrative nature of the industry.
Feb 18, 2018
A Key Inflection Point for Gilead Sciences
Image Source: Gilead. We have closely followed events at Gilead Sciences for signs of an inflection point as we have long felt the market is myopically focused on the Hepatitis C franchise instead of cash flows. Our decision to add the idea to the simulated Dividend Growth Newsletter portfolio and simulated Best Ideas Newsletter portfolio has played out very well as the share price remains locked in an uptrend. We are updating our thesis following the recent conference call.
Jan 28, 2018
Our Overview on Merck in Light of Recent Clinical Events
Image Source: Merck. Clinical data reads can have an outsize impact on the fortunes of the research-based pharma industry, irrespective of the size of the organization. We came away very impressed with the recent release from Merck and felt a timely overview of the various pharmaceutical products developed by the company would be of value to readers.
Jan 28, 2018
Update on Global Blood Therapeutics
Image Source: Sergei Golyshev. As the calendar flips over, the new year has seemed to have reignited investors' passion for the biotech sector. Bioverativ has been acquired, and we’re happy about that, but a timely update on the fortunes of Global Blood Therapeutics is now in order, too.
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