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Latest Valuentum Commentary
Nov 19, 2020
Boeing’s Financials Are Absolutely Frightening
The reality is that Boeing’s financials are still pretty scary. During the first nine months of 2020, the company burned through an incredible $15.4 billion in free cash flow, even as it cut capital spending by a few hundred million. As of the end of the third quarter of 2020, its total consolidated debt now stands at $61 billion, with total cash and marketable securities of $27.1 billion. This compares to total consolidated debt of $24.7 billion and total cash and marketable securities of $10.9 billion, as of the end of the third quarter of 2019. The grounding of the 737 MAX and the outbreak of COVID-19 have combined to be an absolute wrecking ball to Boeing’s financials, and it may take a very, very long time before things start looking better on the books. S&P, Moody’s and Fitch still give the company investment-grade credit ratings (BBB-/Baa2/BBB-), but we’re not sure the aerospace giant deserves them. Here’s what Fitch noted October 2020: “…many of the company's quantitative rating factors will be inconsistent with the 'BBB' category for three years (2019-2021) and into 2022.” It’s probably fair to say that Boeing’s debt should be rated junk, but that would cause some severe reverberations in the credit markets, in our view.
Oct 9, 2019
Fair Value Estimates Matter – Case Study: Boeing
Image Source: Boeing’s share price converged to our estimate of intrinsic value in the summer of 2019. The plane maker continues to navigate tumultuous skies with its 737 MAX. In early 2019, we thought shares of Boeing were severely overpriced, and they aggressively converged to our fair value estimate by summer, only to bounce a bit since then. We’re still huge fans of the company but working through the 737 MAX issues will take some time to get “right.” We expect more headline risk as it relates to contingent liabilities associated with the disasters, but nothing so punitive to shake the plane maker to the core. Boeing is an investment-grade credit with a huge backlog, and while we expect shares to be range-bound in the near-term, investors get to collect a nice juicy dividend as they wait for Boeing to sort things out. Shares yield 2.2% at the time of this writing.
Jul 25, 2018
Boeing’s Massive Backlog Still Growing, Near-Term Margin Concerns Crop Up
Image Source: Robert Sullivan. Commercial aerospace giant Boeing continues to ride a wave of strong demand as its massive backlog continues to grow, but a write down related to the troubled KC-46 tanker appears to have investors thinking twice about its near-term margin performance.
May 14, 2018
Boeing’s Long-Term Strength Intact; Embraer Deal Nearing?
Image Source: Robert Sullivan. Boeing’s first-quarter report was highlighted by stable top-line growth, impressive bottom-line expansion, and increased full-year guidance. The long-term health of its business is supported by its massive backlog of unfulfilled deliveries.
Jan 6, 2018
Markets Update: January 5, 2018
Image shown: The Dow Jones Industrial Average has performed incredibly since the news of the election of Donald Trump. We’re off to a great start in the New Year. Let’s see how a few newsletter portfolio ideas are performing.
Dec 22, 2017
Boeing’s Big Dividend Hike; Potential Deal with Embraer
Image Source: Boeing. We love Boeing. The company has been one of our favorites for years, but its performance during 2017 has simply been amazing. The dividend growth giant upped its payout in a big way recently, too, even as it is reportedly pursuing merger discussions with Embraer.
May 18, 2017
Brazil: Sorry For Your Losses
The Brazilian equity markets are in free fall.
Jan 26, 2017
Boeing’s Lift Off, Lockheed’s Caution, and United Tech’s Outlook
Image Source: Rob Buhlman. Just how healthy is the commercial aerospace market? Very -- if the size of Boeing’s backlog is any indication. Let’s have a look.
Aug 3, 2016
Boeing Declares Victory But Farnborough Disappoints
Image Source: Boeing. The commercial aerospace market has been one of our favorites for years. We continue to expect global plane deliveries to advance through the end of this decade, but anecdotal datapoints suggest that a more watchful eye is in order.
Apr 12, 2016
Alcoa Continues Swoon, Revises Aerospace 2016 Outlook to 6%-8% Expansion
Image Source: Alcoa. The lack of an investment case in Alcoa remains, but there are other ideas in the commercial aerospace supply chain to consider, even as the current upswing in deliveries tires.
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