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Latest Valuentum Commentary
Jan 8, 2020
Resetting Your Mental Model
Image Source: affen ajlfe. Having the right mental model and using the right information can be the reason why you win or lose in investing.
Jan 8, 2020
Update: US and Iran Now De-escalating Tensions
On January 7, Iran retaliated against the US for the killing of Iranian major general Qasem Soleimani (leader of a group that the US has deemed a terror threat under the Trump administration) less than a week earlier by firing missiles from Iranian soil at bases in Iraq that contain US, Iraqi, and coalition troops. The Iranian government aggressively publicized the attack by providing Iranian media outlets with footage of missiles leaving Iran that were targeted towards Iraq. Fortunately, no US, Iraqi, or coalition casualties were reported. We are very thankful that nobody was hurt as a result of the Iranian missile strike.
Jan 7, 2020
Middle East Tensions on the Rise
Early Friday (Arabian Standard Time) on January 3 (the strike was carried out late Thursday evening Eastern Standard Time), under the orders of President Trump, the US took out major general Qasem Soleimani who was the leader of Iran’s Quds military group within the Islamic Revolutionary Guard Corps (‘IRGC’). Please note the US designated the IRGC as a Foreign Terrorist Organization in April 2019, and that the justification for the strike was due to there being an immediate threat to US lives (namely soldiers and contractors stationed in the Middle East), according to the Pentagon. It’s important to note that the strike occurred on Iraqi soil. The Quds force is known to be Iran’s extraterritorial military outfit, an elite group thought to be deeply involved in ongoing wars in Syria (undergoing a civil war), Yemen (undergoing a civil war), and Iraq (ostensibly fighting the remnants of the ISIS terror group). Qasem Soleimani was in Iraq when the US took him out with an airstrike, along with others such as Abu Mahdi al-Muhandis, who was the deputy chief of the Popular Mobilization Units (‘PMF’) which is an umbrella group for various militias active in Iraq that have extensive ties with Iran. Abu Mahdi al-Muhandis was thought to be an adviser of Qasem Soleimani.
Jan 4, 2020
Valuentum Exclusive Success Rates Trump Even the Best Quant Hedge Funds
Image: President of Investment Research Brian Nelson, CFA. A new book, “The Man Who Solved the Market,” hit bookshelves last year, and thus far it has been a hit. The text goes into the story of quant hedge fund Renaissance Technologies and its hedge fund, the Medallion Fund, which has put up mammoth returns since inception.
Jan 2, 2020
FLIR Systems Repositions Itself
Image Source: FLIR Systems Inc – November 2019 IR Presentation. US equity indexes continue to march upwards, and as of this writing, are at or near all-time highs. We couldn’t be more pleased with the performance of our Best Ideas Newsletter and Dividend Growth Newsletter portfolios. Our team continues to sift through Valuentum’s coverage universe to find top quality investment opportunities, and we are taking a deeper look at the defense industry in light of its counter-cyclical and (somewhat) recession-resistant qualities.
Dec 25, 2019
5 Things We Learned in 2019
Image: The Smoky Mountains of Tennessee. "The further a society drifts from the truth, the more it will hate those that speak it." -- George Orwell
Nov 27, 2019
ICYMI: Watch Valuentum's Presentation on 'Value Trap' Now!
YOU WILL LEARN --- * The pitfalls of valuation multiple analysis and the risks of extrapolating some empirical quantitative conclusions. * A critical framework to view and interpret stock price movements and stock valuation. * The universal nature of enterprise valuation to all things finance from competitive advantage analysis to dividend-growth investing and beyond.
Nov 20, 2019
Economic Commentary: Marks, Dalio, and the Discount Rate
Image Source: Mike Cohen. We sat down with the Valuentum team to discuss their latest thoughts on recent economic developments. To kick off the conversation, let’s start with the team’s views on the latest memo from Oaktree’s Howard Marks: Mysterious. For those that don’t know Howard, he is the Director and Co-Chairman of Oaktree, which managed about $122 billion in AUM, as of September 2019. The memo goes into depth on the reasons for negative interest rates, the impact of negative interest rates, and opines on whether the US will ever see negative interest rates. Then, we’ll go from there!
Oct 25, 2019
Our Reports on Stocks in the Prime Aerospace & Defense Industry
Image Source: Robert Sullivan. Our reports on stocks in the prime aerospace and defense industry can be found in this article. Reports include BA, FLIR, GD, LMT, NOC, RTN.
Oct 17, 2019
Honeywell’s Aerospace Division Its Crown Jewel
Image Source: 3Q 2019 Earnings Release. We’re huge fans of Honeywell. The company’s Aero operations are its crown jewel, and while Boeing is facing some troubles these days, we don’t expect much impact on Honeywell at all. In fact, we expect commercial aerospace to remain strong, even in the face of broader industrial weakness. The risks to the company’s HBT business could be starting to mount given some concerns in commercial real estate, but management isn’t really seeing any signs of yet, pointing to only moderating growth in 2020. The SPS division, while a headwind, probably won’t be a factor next year, but it could bounce back as inventories are cleared from the channel.
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The High Yield Dividend Newsletter, Best Ideas Newsletter, Dividend Growth Newsletter, Nelson Exclusive publication, and any reports, articles and content found on this website are for information purposes only and should not be considered a solicitation to buy or sell any security. The sources of the data used on this website are believed by Valuentum to be reliable, but the data’s accuracy, completeness or interpretation cannot be guaranteed. Valuentum is not responsible for any errors or omissions or for results obtained from the use of its newsletters, reports, commentary, or publications and accepts no liability for how readers may choose to utilize the content. Valuentum is not a money manager, is not a registered investment advisor and does not offer brokerage or investment banking services. Valuentum, its employees, and affiliates may have long, short or derivative positions in the stock or stocks mentioned on this site.