Valuentum Exclusive Analysis for the Discerning Investor

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Jan 28, 2024

What Causes Fair Value Estimates to Change?
Image: A screenshot of the discounted cash-flow learning tool for individual investors. So you noticed a fair value estimate changed, and you weren’t sure why? This article is for you.

Oct 26, 2023

Albemarle and ASML Holding Remain Key ESG-Focused Ideas
Two of the companies included in the simulated ESG Newsletter portfolio are Albemarle and ASML Holding. Recently, concerns over the supply/demand dynamics for lithium have hurt Albemarle’s stock, but we’re being patient with this ESG-focused idea. On October 18, ASML Holding reported decent third-quarter results. We think ASML is one of the most competitively advantaged players in the semiconductor space, and we won’t be removing it from the ESG Newsletter portfolio anytime soon.

Oct 23, 2023

2 Stocks to Watch: Tesla and Chevron
Image: Tesla. Tesla’s third-quarter report could have been a lot better, and Elon Musk’s comments that they “have dug (their) own grave with the Cybertruck” weren’t reassuring. Nonetheless, the company continues to generate free cash flow, and its balance sheet remains pristine with a very nice net cash position. We won’t be adding shares of Tesla to any newsletter portfolio, but given the price drop in its equity during the past week, we think most of the bad news is already embedded in the stock. As for Chevron, the company was once a darling stock in the newsletter portfolios, but we’ve moved beyond this big winner in both the Best Ideas Newsletter portfolio and Dividend Growth Newsletter portfolio after the huge “gains” the past 12-18 months. Shares still yield an attractive 3.6%, however, and we'll have more to say about its tie-up with Hess as more details come to light.

Aug 3, 2023

Albemarle Is One of the Best Growth Stories on the Market Today
Image: Albemarle is a low-cost producer of lithium derivatives, an end market that is expected to experience tremendous demand in the coming years. On August 2, Albemarle Corp. reported excellent second-quarter 2023 results that showed net sales advancing 60% and adjusted diluted earnings per share more than doubling in the quarter. For the full-year 2023, net sales are now expected to be between $10.4-$11.5 billion (was $9.8-$11.5 billion) thanks in part to continued strength in electric vehicle (EV) demand. Our fair value estimate for Albemarle stands at $257 per share, well above where shares are currently trading. We think the market is underestimating not only its growth potential but also mid-cycle levels of profitability.

Jul 24, 2023

Tesla Is A Net-Cash-Rich, Free-Cash-Flow Generating, Secular-Growth Powerhouse
Image: Tesla’s Cybertruck showcasing its versatility. The truck is on track to begin production at Gigafactory in Texas in the coming months. Image Source: Tesla's second-quarter press release. The cash-based sources of intrinsic value (and the trajectory of growth in them) are the most important considerations when it comes to assessing the attractiveness of an equity. Two of the most important cash-based sources of intrinsic value are net cash on the balance sheet and future expected free cash flows, and in these two areas, Tesla excels. Though we won’t be adding Tesla to any of the newsletter portfolios anytime soon, we like it within a diversified basket of large-cap growth equities, of which the Best Ideas Newsletter in some ways approximates.

Jul 4, 2023

Tesla Registers Record Total Deliveries in Second Quarter 2023
Source: Tesla. We’ve liked Tesla’s share-price strength so far this year, and record total deliveries during the second quarter of 2023 help to continue to support its impressive share-price move. The high end of our fair value estimate range of Tesla stands at $335 per share, meaning shares of Tesla still have more room to run. The company remains one of the most speculative ways to play U.S. equities.

May 23, 2023

Call Me Unconcerned
Image: Large cap growth has dominated returns the past five years. The Best Ideas Newsletter portfolio continues to have significant exposure to this area. We’re taking it slow this time of year. With the area of large cap growth nearly doubling since the beginning of 2018, trouncing the return of the broader market, dividend growth strategies, the area of small cap value and general REIT indices, it’s just hard to find much wrong with staying pat. The proliferation of artificial intelligence will likely propel big cap tech and large cap growth to new highs, while small cap value may continue to be weighed down by the banks--and dividend-oriented strategies may face continued pressure from rising interest rates and tired real estate markets. Things were a bit murky during 2022, but thanks for keeping the faith.

May 22, 2023

Nice! -- NASDAQ-100 Follows Through on Breakout
Image: NASDAQ-100 breaks through August 2022 resistance.

Feb 12, 2023

Albemarle Outlines Strong Lithium Demand Outlook
Image Source: Albemarle. Albemarle released a very promising outlook in late January, one that implies a tremendous pace of top-line expansion, profitability growth, and free cash flow generation. We’re huge fans of the outlook and believe lithium demand will continue to be robust, even as new supply comes to market. The company has called its next five years a period of “transformational growth,” where expected net sales are targeted at 2.5x 2022 levels and adjusted EBITDA is targeted to more than double. Electric vehicle demand remains robust, and Albemarle has opportunities across the end markets of mobility, energy, connectivity, and health, too. We think Albemarle remains one of the best growth stories on the market today, and we like shares.

Aug 28, 2022

We've Suspended Coverage of Stocks in the Disruptive Innovation Industry
Image Source: Virgin Galactic. --- We've suspended coverage of stocks in the 'Disruptive Innovation' industry. Order the Exclusive publication to gain access to idea generation that covers some of the most innovative stocks. As a member to the Exclusive publication, you'll receive one income idea, one capital appreciation idea, and one short idea consideration each month! --- The ‘Disruptive Innovation’ industry is unique in almost every way. The companies included don’t necessarily share a similar traditional industry or sector make-up, but they do share one big thing in common: They continue to disrupt the traditional way of doing things. Carvana is changing how consumers buy used cars, Roku is leading the streaming charge against linear TV, Teradyne's industrial robotics technology is fascinating, Beyond Meat is working to alter the substance of the meat products industry, Virgin Galactic wants to make spaceflight accessible for private individuals, Uber is changing how we think about getting from point A to point B through ridesharing, Penn National is aggressively expanding into sports betting with its investment in Barstool Sports, CRISPR Therapeutics' revolutionary gene-editing technology may offer a path to curative solutions for the worst diseases, Wayfair is disrupting how we buy home goods, ETSY is carving out a niche online marketplace in craft items, while Zoom Video has come of age during the outbreak of COVID-19. Others included in this list of stock reports have been around for a while, but are still innovating to meet customer needs. Monster Beverage continues to reinvent the energy drink market, Boston Beer has found new life with its portfolio of new brands, and even GameStop is seeking to find its place after the meme-stock frenzy. There are other companies in this industry and sure to be many more added in the future.