Valuentum Exclusive Analysis for the Discerning Investor

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Jun 24, 2020

Steel Dynamics Bets Big on North America’s Industrial Economy
Image Source: Steel Dynamics Inc – June 2020 IR Presentation. Investor sentiment towards the steel industry is rebounding as the medium- and long-term outlook for global industrial activity has improved markedly since March 2020. The ongoing coronavirus (‘COVID-19’) pandemic has significantly hampered near-term industrial activity, though major fiscal stimulus packages (made feasible through major monetary stimulus programs) launched in various developed nations could provide some relief. Shares of Steel Dynamics have recovered meaningfully since their March 2020 lows and are trading a tad below our fair value estimate as of this writing. Shares of STLD yield ~3.6% on an annualized forward-looking basis as of this writing and we give the steel maker a Dividend Cushion ratio of 1.3x providing for a “GOOD” Dividend Safety rating. The company has made great strides in improving its financial position over the past several years. We will first provide some background on the fiscal stimulus measures that have either been approved and or proposed in key economies across the world, before digging deeper into Steel Dynamics.

Jun 11, 2020

Data from Visa Indicates the Economic Outlook is Improving
Image Shown: Visa Inc reports that US processed transactions volumes across its payment processing network improved materially on a year-over-year basis in May, relatively speaking, versus the downturn seen in the second half of March and the first half of April. Image Source: Visa Inc – 8-K SEC Filing. One of our favorite secular growth industry tailwinds is happening the payment processing, payment solutions, and financial technology space. The world is shifting toward a “cashless” society and that has accelerated due to the ongoing coronavirus (‘COVID-19’) pandemic, in part due to the rise of e-commerce and in part due to the preference of many consumers to use contactless payment options when in physical stores. Visa has been a top-weighted holding in the Best Ideas Newsletter portfolio for some time, and shares of V are up 5% year-to-date while the S&P 500 is down 1% year-to-date as of this writing. The top end of our fair value estimate range for Visa sits at $214 per share indicating there is plenty of room for shares of V to climb higher; please note we like to let our winners run. Additionally, shares of V yield a modest ~0.6% as of this writing, offering incremental upside to its capital appreciation potential.

Jun 9, 2020

Nikola Corp Shares Skyrocket After Getting Listed
Image Shown: Shares of Nikola Corporation have skyrocketed since completing a business combination with a special purpose acquisition company in early-June 2020. Nikola Corp completed its business combination with VectoIQ Acquisition Corp (a special purpose acquisition company or ‘SPAC’) on June 3, 2020, and a day later shares started trading under the NKLA ticker (VectolQ Acquisition previously traded under the ticker VTIQ). Effectively, this allowed Nikola Corp to become publicly traded without undergoing a “conventional” initial public offering (‘IPO’) and furthermore, the combination raised over $700 million to fund Nikola Corp’s ambitions. VectolQ Acquisition was sponsored by VectoIQ Holdings LLC, P. Schoenfeld Asset Management LP, and Cowen. Nikola Corp is run by CEO Mark Russell and Executive Chairman and founder Trevor Milton. Stephen Girsky, Managing Partner of VectolIQ, joined Nikola Corp’s board of directors, bringing with him a ton of experience in the automotive space as he was formerly Vice Chairman of General Motors (GM) from November 2009 until July 2014.

Apr 29, 2020

Detroit Automakers on the Ropes, Tesla Continues to Dominate
Image Source: GM. We’re not sure the Detroit automakers will ever be the same after COVID-19. The global pandemic might be the knock-out blow that keeps them on the canvas for a long time, as the group continues to face changing consumer preferences and the rise and dominance of Tesla. Cash preservation is the name of the game at the moment, as they await a restart to some of their U.S. operations May 18.

Feb 6, 2020

What to Do with Tesla?
Image Shown: Tesla’s shares have surged during the past 7-8 months driven by a confluence of factors from fundamental improvements, a massive short squeeze, quantitative momentum traders and speculators anticipating its addition to larger indexes. We’re maintaining our view that shares of Tesla are overvalued, and investors need to be careful dabbling in these types of equities where price-agnostic trading is running wild.

May 15, 2019

Vodafone's Dividend Cut, Alibaba's Resilience, More Reports
In alphabetical order by company name: A, BABA, PLCE, GES, M, NSANY, RL, TLRY, VOD.

Oct 14, 2017

Euphoria Running Rampant: Investigating Some of the Hottest Names Around
Image Source: Tesla Roadster. As we march forward in what Morgan Stanley has dubbed a bull market of “epic proportions,” euphoria appears to be at levels perhaps not seen since the dot-com bust of the early 2000s. Let’s take a look at some of the “hottest” names on the market.

May 22, 2017

Investing Versus Speculating: Ford, GM, Tesla
Ford is making some changes at the top, but we still like General Motors. Tesla’s stock remains “uninvestable,” in our view.

Mar 30, 2017

Who’s Driving Who: The Future of the Automakers
Image Source: HimmelrichPR. Let’s dig into some recent developments surrounding the auto market, and how technological and strategic innovation could reshape the future of the space.

Mar 14, 2017

Intel Makes Strong Move into Autonomous Driving
Image Source: Intel. Newsletter portfolio holding Intel has agreed to acquire Mobileye, a leading provider for computer vision for Advanced Driver Assistance Systems (ADAS), for $15.3 billion in cash.