Valuentum Exclusive Analysis for the Discerning Investor

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Sep 7, 2021

Update on Best Idea Alphabet’s Self-Driving Taxi Upside
Image Shown: Shares of Alphabet Inc Class C have boomed higher year-to-date as of early-September 2021. We see ample room for additional upside. We are huge fans of Alphabet and include Alphabet Class C shares (ticker: GOOG) as a top-weighted holding in the Best Ideas Newsletter portfolio. Our fair value estimate for Alphabet Class C shares sits at $3,500 per share, well above where GOOG is trading at as of this writing. Should Waymo, the company's self-driving unit, one day get commercialized, that upside is purely incremental to our fair value estimate, highlighting why we are such huge fans of the digital advertising behemoth.

Sep 3, 2021

Best Idea PayPal Is a Tremendous Enterprise with Ample Capital Appreciation Upside
Image Source: PayPal Holdings Inc – 2021 Investor Day Presentation. PayPal is a stellar enterprise with rock-solid financials. The company is incredibly free cash flow positive and carries a pristine balance sheet while also sporting tremendous pricing power. We continue to be enormous fans of the fintech giant and expect to hear more great things from the company going forward. PayPal’s growth outlook is incredibly bright, and we forecast the company’s free cash flows will swell higher over the years and decades to come. Management noted during the firm’s 2021 Investor Day event that the goal is to allocate 30%-40% of PayPal’s future free cash flows towards share repurchases over the medium-term. We view PayPal’s capital appreciation upside quite favorably and continue to like the company as an idea in the Best Ideas Newsletter portfolio with a sizable 'weighting' in the portfolio.

Aug 19, 2021

Cisco Systems Continues to Recover; Growth Outlook Quite Promising
Image Source: Cisco Systems Inc – Fourth Quarter of Fiscal 2021 IR Presentation. On August 18, Cisco Systems reported fourth quarter earnings for fiscal 2021 (period ended July 31, 2021) that beat consensus top- and bottom-line estimates. Cisco Systems also offered guidance for both the first quarter of fiscal 2022 along with full-year guidance for fiscal 2022, breaking with tradition (usually the company does not offer full fiscal year forecasts). Cisco Systems is included as an idea in both the Best Ideas Newsletter and Dividend Growth Newsletter portfolios. We continue to be huge fans of Cisco Systems, and shares of CSCO initially moved significantly higher during the morning trading hours on August 19.

Aug 12, 2021

Dividend Growth Idea Qualcomm Enters Bidding War to Bolster Automotive Growth Runway
Image Source: Qualcomm Inc – March 2021 Annual Meeting of Stockholders Presentation. One of our favorite semiconductor plays is Qualcomm. For those just getting familiar with the name, the company is about much more than just supplying components used in smartphones. While the rollout of 5G-capable smartphones will provide Qualcomm’s medium-term financial performance a large boost due to its Snapdragon mobile platform offerings, another key aspect of Qualcomm’s promising growth story is its exposure to the automotive industry.

Aug 7, 2021

Valuentum Weekly
Image: Bitcoin, technology and large cap growth have led the pack the past 5 years while pipeline MLPs, crude oil and energy stocks have fallen way behind. Large cap growth > small cap value. Bonds, non-US stocks continue to lag. The Valuentum Weekly is a brand-new weekly market commentary from Valuentum Securities, released each weekend in digital form. The Valuentum Weekly offers members a weekly synopsis of the markets and major events. It will be straight and to-the-point. Our goal is to deliver to you the latest information and insights. We welcome your feedback on how we can make the Valuentum Weekly as useful and as relevant for you as ever!

Jul 30, 2021

Amazon Leads Market Lower, Free Cash Flow Disappoints
Image: Amazon's free cash flow performance was hugely disappointing during its second quarter of 2021. We were disappointed in Amazon’s mixed second-quarter report released after the bell July 29. The e-commerce and web services giant missed revenue expectations, while the company’s bottom-line earnings-per-share number of $15.12 came in better than the consensus figure. We find it highly ironical that Amazon's shares are selling off on a hugely profitable quarter when years ago the Street was complaining about it bleeding red ink. Shares of Amazon are trading down to about our fair value estimate of ~$3,343 at the time of this writing; the sell-off may be deserved.

Jul 29, 2021

Facebook, PayPal, Apple Earnings Reports and More!
Image shown: Qualcomm’s chart is looking mighty attractive. Thus far, second-quarter earnings season has been solid. Investors may be looking to take some profits, but we believe they’ll likely be buying back their favorite ideas toward the back half of the year. The market continues to be a bit cautious on tech in light of growing regulatory concerns in China, and inflationary pressures may temporarily hurt some within the consumer staples arena, but we’re not reading too much into either of these concerns. We maintain our very bullish take on the markets, and we believe that the newsletter portfolios are very well positioned for the ongoing bull market.

Jul 29, 2021

Microsoft’s Dividend Is Rock Solid But Why?
Image Shown: Valuentum’s Dividend Report on Microsoft. The Dividend Cushion Ratio Deconstruction reveals the numerator and denominator of the Dividend Cushion ratio for Microsoft. At the core, the larger the numerator, or the healthier a company's balance sheet and future free cash flow generation, relative to the denominator, or a company's cash dividend obligations, the more durable the dividend. In the context of the Dividend Cushion ratio, Microsoft's numerator is larger than its denominator suggesting strong dividend coverage in the future. The Dividend Cushion Ratio Deconstruction image puts sources of free cash in the context of financial obligations next to expected cash dividend payments over the next 5 years on a side-by-side comparison. Because the Dividend Cushion ratio and many of its components are forward-looking, our dividend evaluation may change upon subsequent updates as future forecasts are altered to reflect new information. We estimate the efficacy of the Dividend Cushion ratio in warning against dividend cuts at about 90%. We measure this efficacy by looking at the Dividend Cushion ratios of companies that have cut their payouts in our coverage. If the company had a Dividend Cushion ratio below 1, we’d view the Dividend Cushion ratio as doing its job. Not all companies with high Dividend Cushion ratios are insulated from dividend cuts, and not all companies with low Dividend Cushion ratios will cut their dividend, but the Dividend Cushion ratio is yet another Valuentum-driven tool for your investor tool kit.

Jul 28, 2021

The Valuentum Buying Index’s Flow Chart
Image: The Valuentum Buying Index flow chart. Each stock in our general operating coverage receives a systematically-applied rating. The Valuentum Buying Index is a powerful tool to use in conjunction with a variety of other investment considerations from the Economic Castle, the Dividend Cushion ratio, the fair value estimate and range to forward-looking relative valuation assessments, the dividend yield, dividend growth prospects and beyond. We hope you continue to enjoy your membership, and please let us know if you have any questions.

Jul 27, 2021

The Valuentum Buying Index as a Differentiating Factor
Image: The Valuentum Buying Index explanatory stock market return model. For illustratiive and educational purposes only. The Valuentum Buying Index should not be used by itself. No other research provider has approached mapping the market in this manner, making Valuentum’s research a differentiating factor behind your practice and a must-have for any investor. No system is perfect, but we continue to be impressed with how well 9- and 10-rated equities have performed, including the most recent 10, Facebook. We hope to continue to help you in all your equity research needs, but please be sure to always do your own due diligence. We can never provide you with buy/sell advice.