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Fundamental data is updated weekly, as of the prior weekend. Please download the Full Report and Dividend Report for any changes.
Apr 10, 2023
Best Ideas Newsletter Portfolio Idea Republic Services Continues to Execute Well
Image: Republic Services has been executing nicely, growing its adjusted free cash flow at a 14% compound annual growth rate the past three years. Image Source: Republic Services. Shares of Republic are trading about in line with our fair value estimate ($130-$135) but have valuation upside on the basis of the high end of our fair value estimate range ($158 per share), in our view. The company boasts an investment-grade credit rating and has liquidity of ~$1.7 billion, while most of its debt doesn’t come due until after 2029. Republic Services’ equity is currently yielding ~1.5% at the moment, and we think it is a great fit for the newsletter portfolios. The garbage hauler continues to deliver in both good times and bad, and we have no reason to believe that it won’t continue to do so. Trash is cash when it comes to the waste-management business.
Mar 16, 2023
The Transaction Log of the Best Ideas Portfolio
Image Source: GotCredit. View the transaction log of the portfolio of the Best Ideas Newsletter in this article. The Best Ideas Newsletter portfolio and Dividend Growth Newsletter portfolio are not real money portfolios. Results are hypothetical and do not represent actual trading.
Feb 17, 2023
Dividend Increases/Decreases for the Week of February 17
Let's take a look at firms raising/lowering their dividends this week.
Feb 2, 2023
Meta’s Free Cash Flow Generation Has Returned, But TikTok Has Permanently Changed the Competitive Landscape
Image: Meta Platforms’ free cash flow has bounced back a bit, but the firm’s top-line growth remains challenged as it transitions away from a secular growth powerhouse into a cyclical story with encroaching competition. Image Source: Meta Platforms. We’re loving this nice move higher in the stylistic area of large cap growth, and for those investors seeking broad-based exposure, we think this area is the place to be in the long run. Tesla’s strong financial performance coupled with Meta Platforms’ return to financial discipline are propelling large cap growth higher, but risks to the broader equity markets and economy remain. In any case, with inflation likely peaking in June 2022, fourth-quarter 2022 earnings season coming in better-than-feared, and technical breakouts of key indices across the board from the equal-weighted and market-cap weighted S&P 500 to the NASDAQ-100, equity investors have a lot to cheer about.
Jan 19, 2023
Consumers Feeling the Pinch; S&P 500 Bounces Off Technical Resistance; Elasticities Breaking Down for Staples Stocks
Image: The S&P 500 has bounced right off its technical resistance and will likely test 3,400, in our view. Image Source: TradingView. Things continue to deteriorate across the broader U.S. economy, but it's worth reiterating that the economy is not the stock market. The labor markets remain strong, but we continue to hear of layoffs across Silicon Valley, consumers are working through their excess savings built up during the pandemic, while net charge offs are expected to double in 2023 as credit quality deteriorates. Consumer staples names may be struggling to make elasticities work of late in light of the weakness in operating income in P&G’s calendar fourth-quarter 2022 results. Consumers are finding ways to trade down to private-label products. The S&P 500 has bounced right off its technical resistance, and we could test 3,400 during the year on the index. We remain bullish on stocks in the long run, however.
Jan 13, 2023
Dividend Increases/Decreases for the Week of January 13
Let's take a look at firms raising/lowering their dividends this week.
Jan 11, 2023
We’re Glad Microsoft Sees Promise in ChatGPT
Image Source: Mike Mozart. We’re going to be hearing a lot more about artificial intelligence chatbot technologies in the coming years, and our initial interaction with ChatGPT a month ago indicates to us that it will be a gamechanger for a lot of industries. Microsoft’s continued backing in OpenAI, the owner of ChatGPT, will likely accelerate the technology’s development, and we expect it to eventually augment Microsoft’s own search technology and ad-driven revenue opportunities. Alphabet may have a few AI tricks up its own sleeve in its ‘Other Bets’ segment, so we’re not ruling out a highly competitive environment in this area in the coming years. We like that we include both Microsoft and Alphabet in the simulated newsletter portfolios and that we’re not forced to make a decision on whether a new upstart is worthy of inclusion. Our fair value estimate for both Microsoft and Alphabet remain unchanged at this time.
Jan 9, 2023
Exact Sciences: Fast-Growing Molecular Diagnostic Company But Huge Risks
Image Source: Exact Sciences. Though Exact Sciences is experiencing strong top-line momentum in its business at the moment given its recent upward guidance revision for 2022, its net losses remain huge while its net debt position remains large. We also can’t forget that Exact Sciences recently lowered its full-year 2022 guidance in August, so visibility behind its operations is also somewhat limited, in our view. That said, Exact Sciences’ stool-based Cologuard test has a massive long-term market opportunity, but competition from procedure-based detection technologies and other potential new entrants looking to develop their own stool-based colorectal cancer tests means its long-run outlook is just too murky for us to get excited about shares. Regardless, Exact Sciences' equity has soared more than 20% to start 2023, and we’ve taken notice of the speculative pop.
Dec 16, 2022
Waste Management’s Free Cash Flow Facing Pressure from Sustainability Initiatives
Image Source: Waste Management’s 2022 Sustainability Report. 2023 will mark the 20th consecutive year that Waste Management has increased its dividend payout. Though free cash flow is facing pressure due to its sustainability growth initiatives that are driving total capital expenditures higher, the company’s valuable disposal capacity and pricing power across its municipal solid waste operations are a couple qualities that we like. Shares are trading about in line with our fair value estimate at the moment, as they boast a ~1.6% forward estimated annual dividend yield.
Dec 13, 2022
Oracle Puts Up Huge Revenue Growth Number in Second Quarter Fiscal 2023 Results
Image: Trailing four-quarter free cash flow trends at Oracle are strong but lumpy. Image Source: Oracle. On December 12, Oracle Corporation reported better than expected second quarter fiscal 2023 results for the three months ended November 30. Total revenue advanced 18% in the quarter on a year-over-year basis, leaping 25% in constant currency, thanks in part to strong performance at its infrastructure and application cloud businesses. Non-GAAP operating income increased 5%--and 12% in constant currency--and its non-GAAP operating margin was 41% in the period. Fiscal second-quarter non-GAAP earnings per share of $1.21 beat the consensus estimate, despite foreign currency headwinds. We liked that we saw in the quarterly results, and we’ll be sticking with the company as one of our best ideas.


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