Valuentum Exclusive Analysis for the Discerning Investor

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Jan 23, 2020

Resetting Your Mental Model
Image Source: affen ajlfe. Having the right mental model and using the right information can be the reason why you win or lose in investing.

Jan 4, 2020

Valuentum Exclusive Success Rates Trump Even the Best Quant Hedge Funds
Image: President of Investment Research Brian Nelson, CFA. A new book, “The Man Who Solved the Market,” hit bookshelves last year, and thus far it has been a hit. The text goes into the story of quant hedge fund Renaissance Technologies and its hedge fund, the Medallion Fund, which has put up mammoth returns since inception.

Nov 3, 2019

Our Reports on Stocks in the Internet Content and Catalog Retail Industry
Image Source: Robert Scoble. We've optimized our technology coverage.

Oct 25, 2019

Amazon Contends with Rising Operating Expenses and Shrinking Gross Margins
Image Shown: Shares of Amazon Inc have stumbled so far in 2019 as the headwinds from rising tariffs, largely a product of the US-China trade war, combined with a competitive cloud computing landscape put downward pressure on its profitability levels. Amazon reported third quarter 2019 earnings after the market close on Thursday October 24 that underwhelmed investor expectations and saw shares plummet after-hours. However, shares of AMZN recovered somewhat throughout the trading session on Friday October 25. We don’t include Amazon in our Best Ideas Newsletter portfolio due in part to its high levels of operating leverage. Small changes in one’s valuation assumptions generally cause large swings in the intrinsic value estimates of a company like Amazon. We like Amazon’s long-term free cash flow generating potential, and our fair value estimate stands at $2,000 per share, but we are still staying away from the company for now. Amazon would have to be heavily discounted relative to the low end of our fair value estimate range (which stands at $1,500 per share as of this writing) before we could get interested in the name as a potential newsletter portfolio addition.

Oct 24, 2019

Shares Up +9%; Best Ideas Newsletter Portfolio Holding PayPal Posts a Blowout Quarter
Image Source: PayPal Holdings Inc – Third quarter 2019 earnings press release.  We think PayPal should continue to perform very well going forward as secular growth tailwinds combined with strong operational performance (with an eye towards its rising ‘Merchant Services’ and Venmo total payment volumes) support the company’s free cash flow growth trajectory. The company does not pay out a common dividend at this time but could given its pristine balance sheet and quality free cash flow profile. Our fair value estimate for PYPL stands at $125 per share at the time of this writing.

Oct 17, 2019

An Update on Facebook’s Libra as Roughly Two Dozen Members Sign On
Image Shown: Facebook has room to run higher, with or without Libra. While several large financial technology and payment processing firms have recently made it clear they no longer want to be a part of the nascent Libra Association, that didn’t stop roughly two dozen members from signing the group’s charter in Geneva, Switzerland, on October 15. We really must stress that our discounted free cash flow models for Facebook don’t take in account the upside its proposed asset-back cryptocurrency Libra might generate. This opportunity represents pure upside to our forecasts, and we continue to like Facebook as a top holding in our Best Ideas Newsletter portfolio.

Oct 12, 2019

ICYMI: Interview with Valuentum's President Brian M. Nelson, CFA
Catch up with Valuentum's President Brian M. Nelson, CFA in a recent interview with dividend growth investor Arne Magnus Lorentzen Ulland of the blog stockles.

Sep 25, 2019

Best Ideas Newsletter Portfolio Holding PayPal Can Thrive in a Post-eBay World
Image Source: PayPal Holdings Inc -- IR Presentation. We continue to like Best Ideas Newsletter portfolio holding PayPal Holdings as a way to gain exposure to the very attractive payment processing and financial technology industry, complementing our top-weighted Visa holding. PayPal can do more than just survive in a post-eBay world, it can thrive.

Aug 19, 2019

No Recession At Walmart; Estee Lauder Not Cheap
Image Source: Mike Mozart. Walmart’s results were quite reassuring regarding the health of the economy. There are also pockets of significant strength, with prestige beauty being catapulted by a “selfie generation.”

Jul 25, 2019

Google, Intel -- Yes!
Let's talk Google and Intel, remind you that we've removed Chipotle, Xilinx, and Boeing from the newsletter portfolios some time ago. I'll talk a little about PayPal's run higher and address some other themes, including contingent liabilities with J&J and 3M.