Valuentum Exclusive Analysis for the Discerning Investor

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Apr 25, 2024

Altria Reaffirms Full Year 2024 Earnings Outlook
Image: Shares of Altria have faced pressure during the past couple years, but its dividend yield is too hard to pass up, in our view. On April 25, Altria reported mixed first-quarter results. Though Altria won’t win any awards for ESG, the company’s ~9.1% dividend yield is too hard to pass up, in our view.

Mar 21, 2024

Latest Report Updates
Check out the latest report updates on the website.

Mar 15, 2024

Altria Selling Portion of ABI Stake, Raises 2024 Guidance
Image: Altria’s shares reacted positively to news that it would sell a portion of its stake in Anheuser-Busch Inbev. On March 14, Altria Group announced that it would be selling in a secondary offering 35 million of its ~197 million shares of Anheuser-Busch Inbev it owns to unlock value for shareholders. The cigarette maker noted that it would use the proceeds of the sale for accelerated share buybacks to the tune of a $2.4 billion increase to its existing $1 billion repurchase program, a move that we like quite a bit as it helps to reduce total dividend obligations paid to shareholders given Altria’s outsized dividend yield. The cigarette maker also raised its earnings guidance because of the sale, and we continue to like Altria as a high yield dividend income idea.

Mar 1, 2024

Dividend Increases/Decreases for the Week of March 1
Let's take a look at firms raising/lowering their dividends this week.

Dec 20, 2023

Latest Report Updates
Check out the latest report updates on the website.

Nov 10, 2023

Use Both the Dividend Cushion Ratio (Probability of a Dividend Cut) and the Qualitative Dividend Ratings in Your Assessment of the Payout
The Dividend Cushion ratio ranks companies on the probability of a dividend cut in the longer run, while the qualitative ratings in part assess the outlook for the health of the payout in the near term in the context of management’s willingness to preserve and raise the payout. Since the systematic application of the Dividend Cushion ratio across our coverage in 2012, the Dividend Cushion ratio has forewarned readers of approximately 50 dividend cuts. We estimate its efficacy at ~90% at identifying the risks of a dividend cut in advance of the event.

Oct 25, 2023

We Will Be Removing CubeSmart and Adding Altria to the High Yield Dividend Newsletter Portfolio
Image: Entities with large net cash positions and substantial free cash flow generation have outperformed not only the broader stock market, but also key high yield areas, including REITs, mortgage REITs and master limited partnerships during the past 10 years. We’re going to continue to lessen our exposure to the equity REIT space, removing CubeSmart from the High Yield Dividend Newsletter portfolio on November 1 and replacing it with Altria. We’re going to keep CUBE-rival Public Storage in the High Yield Dividend Newsletter portfolio for now, but the self-storage space has come under some pressure as consumers may be balking at storage prices as they reassess their spending habits amid higher inflation. Altria doesn’t have a great balance sheet, but the firm does comfortably cover cash dividends paid with free cash flow generation, and the firm does have sizable stakes in Anheuser-Busch-Inbev and Cronos that offer it considerable financial flexibility. Shares of Altria look cheap, too. The swap out of CubeSmart and swap in of Altria within the High Yield Dividend Newsletter portfolio will be effective upon the release of the November edition of the High Yield Dividend Newsletter on November 1.

Sep 6, 2023

Latest Report Updates Reveal Tremendous Dividend Strength at Walmart
Our latest report updates showcased one very big observation, and that was the tremendous dividend strength of Walmart. The big box retailer’s Dividend Cushion ratio is rock-solid, and improved inventory management has worked wonders on operating cash flow this year, driving it to $18.2 billion during the six months ended July 31 from $9.24 billion in the same period a year ago, all the while organized retail theft remains a huge industry-wide problem. Though shares of Walmart are widely followed and are fairly valued on the basis of our discounted cash-flow process, we stand in awe of the company’s resurgence in free cash flow generation and believe that the firm offers a nice foundation to the markets. Walmart is on a short list of entities that we’d be looking to add to the Dividend Growth Newsletter portfolio at the right price, near the lower end of our updated fair value estimate range.

Jun 13, 2023

ESG Facing Opposition But Still an Indispensable Component of Investing
Image: Shares of Anheuser-Busch Inbev and Target have fallen 16%+ and 22%+, respectively, since the beginning of April. ESG investing is facing numerous challenges during 2023 as investors look to reallocate funds to other areas, including higher-yielding bonds and AI-levered big cap tech. Social dynamics have also become increasingly more difficult to navigate as companies seek to extend their brands, and the missteps at BUD and TGT mean that C-suites have to pay more attention to how they incorporate social issues into their messaging than ever before. Regardless of the weak fund flows at ESG-focused financial instruments during 2023, the concepts embedded within ESG remain absolutely critical to an investor’s success.

May 30, 2023

Paper: Value and Momentum Within Stocks, Too
Abstract: This paper strives to advance the field of finance in four ways: 1) it extends the theory of the “The Arithmetic of Active Management” to the investor level; 2) it addresses certain data problems of factor-based methods, namely with respect to value and book-to-market ratios, while introducing price-to-fair-value ratios in a factor-based approach; 3) it may lay the foundation for academic literature regarding the Valuentum, the value-timing, and ultra-momentum factors; and 4) it walks through the potential relative outperformance that may be harvested at the intersection of relevant, unique and compensated factors within individual stocks.