Valuentum Exclusive Analysis for the Discerning Investor

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Feb 4, 2022

Undervalued PINS, SNAP Rallying; FB Incredibly Mispriced, and Refreshed Consumer Discretionary Reports
Image: Valuentum's Periodic Screener, February 4. Two of the most undervalued stocks in our coverage Pinterest, Inc. and Snap Inc. are indicated to rally hard February 4 after issuing positive earnings reports, providing further evidence of the importance of the discounted cash flow process and the magnet that intrinsic value estimates are to stock prices.

Jan 22, 2022

Don’t Throw the Baby Out with the Bathwater
Image: Erica Nicol. Junk tech should continue to collapse, but the stylistic area of large cap growth and big cap tech should remain resilient. Moderately elevated levels of inflation coupled with interest rates hovering at all-time lows isn’t a terrible combination. In fact, it’s not bad at all. The markets are digesting the huge gains of the past few years so far in 2022, and the excesses in ARKK funds, crypto, SPACs, and meme stocks are being rid from the system. Our best ideas are “outperforming” the very benchmarks that are outperforming everyone else. The BIN portfolio is down 6.4% and the DGN portfolio is down 3.2% year to date. The SPY is down 7.8%, while the average investor may be doing much worse. Our timing to exit some very speculative ideas in the Exclusive publication has been impeccable. Beware of “best-fitted” backtest data regarding sequence of return risks. Research is to help you navigate the future, not the past. We remain bullish on stocks for the long haul and grow more and more excited as our simulated newsletter portfolios continue to hold up very well. Don’t throw the baby out with the bath water. Stick with the largest, strongest growth names. We still like large cap growth and big cap tech, though we are tactical overweight in the largest energy stocks (e.g. XOM, CVX, XLE). The latest short idea in the Exclusive publication has collapsed aggressively since highlight January 9, and we remain encouraged by the resilience of ideas in the High Yield Dividend Newsletter portfolio and ESG Newsletter portfolio. Our options idea generation remains ongoing.

Dec 28, 2021

General Mills Managing Inflationary Headwinds; Scaling Up Pets Business
Image Source: General Mills Inc – Second Quarter of Fiscal 2022 IR Earnings Presentation. On December 21, General Mills, the firm behind the Cheerios, Pillsbury, and Nature Valley brands (among various others), reported second quarter earnings for fiscal 2022 (period ended November 28, 2021) that beat consensus top-line estimates but missed consensus bottom-line estimates. The consumer staples giant also raised its full year guidance for fiscal 2022 in conjunction with its latest earnings report. In the face of major input cost inflationary pressures and supply chain constraints, brought on in part by the coronavirus (‘COVID-19’) pandemic and the fiscal/monetary policies enacted to offset the economic damage caused by the public health crisis, General Mills has done a solid job navigating the ever-changing landscape, all things considered.

Dec 26, 2021

VIDEO/TRANSCRIPT: 2021 Valuentum Exclusive Call: Inflation Is Good
Valuentum's President Brian Michael Nelson, CFA, explains why investors should not fear inflation, why government agencies such as the Fed and Treasury are prioritizing something other than price discovery, why the 10-year Treasury rate is a must-watch metric, and why Valuentum prefers the moaty constituents in large cap growth due to their net cash rich balance sheets, tremendous free cash flow generating potential, and secular growth tailwinds.

Dec 14, 2021

Kroger Beats Estimates and Once Again Raises Guidance
Image Source: Kroger Co - Third Quarter of Fiscal 2021 IR Earnings Presentation. Kroger Co recently reported third quarter earnings for fiscal 2021 (period ended November 6, 2021) that beat both consensus top- and bottom-line estimates, and the retailer also once again boosted its full-year guidance for fiscal 2021. Kroger’s operations include retail store brands such as City Market, Food 4 Less, Fred Meyers, Metro Market, and more, along with its private label brands of consumer staples offerings. Shares of KR have shifted meaningful higher since its latest earnings update as of this writing.

Dec 10, 2021

What Really Is the ”S” in ESG Investing
Image: The Valuentum Environmental, Social and Governance (ESG) Scoring System shows how “Social” considerations are analyzed. Social considerations tend to ebb and flow and reflect the values of society. Renewed interest in diversity, inclusion, and equity, for example, have made these areas a greater focus for companies and investors. As we have evolved as a society over decades and generations, the types of social considerations that may have primacy will change over time, so it’s important to make sure social considerations are just one part of your research. In addition to looking at how a company scores on the Valuentum ESG rating system and how it aligns with your own values, be sure to also look at whether such an idea is in the simulated newsletter portfolios, how it rates on the Valuentum Buying Index (VBI), its Dividend Cushion ratio for dividend-paying stocks, and much more. It’s extremely important to reward those companies doing the social good, but equity prices and returns will always be driven in part by a company’s cash-based sources of intrinsic value: net cash on the balance sheet and future expected free cash flow.

Nov 22, 2021

Tyson’s Pricing Strength Enables Margin Expansion During Turbulent Time
Image Shown: Tyson Foods Inc put up stellar results for fiscal 2021. Image Source: Tyson Foods Inc – Fourth Quarter of Fiscal 2021 IR Earnings Presentation. On November 15, Tyson Foods reported fourth quarter earnings for fiscal 2021 (period ended October 2, 2021) that beat both consensus top- and bottom-line estimates largely due to the firm’s impressive pricing strength, the focus of this article. The company is facing major headwinds from the coronavirus (‘COVID-19’) pandemic, from labor shortages to supply chain bottlenecks to rising input costs, though Tyson has adeptly navigated this turbulence while bolstering both its revenues and its margins.

Nov 12, 2021

Hard Work and the Trust That Binds
Image: Terry Johnson. It’s easy to forget how much we’ve been through the past two years. Often, we forget how helpful the warning that markets were going to crash was the weekend before they did on February 22, 2020, “Is a Stock Market Crash Coming? – Coronavirus Update and P/E Ratios,” how we thought dollar-cost-averaging made sense at the bottom in March 2020, and how we went “all-in” in April 29, 2020, “ALERT: Going to “Fully Invested” – The Fed and Treasury Have Your Back,” when we saw the writing was on the wall for this blow off top. If nothing else, these three moves alone during the past couple years have paid for a lifetime of subscriptions.

Jun 22, 2021

Kroger Raises Guidance After Solid Earnings Report
Image Source: Kroger Co – First Quarter of Fiscal 2021 IR Earnings Presentation. Grocers are facing tough year-over-year comparisons due to the pantry stockpiling dynamic seen in 2020 in the wake of the coronavirus (‘COVID-19’) pandemic, though demand for consumer staples products remains healthy. On June 17, Kroger Co reported first quarter earnings for fiscal 2021 (period ended May 22, 2021) that beat both consensus top- and bottom-line estimates. Kroger’s management team also noted how the grocer views the current inflationary landscape, which we will cover in this note.

Jun 11, 2021

Dividend Increases/Decreases for the Week June 11
Let's take a look at companies that raised/lowered their dividend this week.