Valuentum Exclusive Analysis for the Discerning Investor

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Mar 5, 2021

Our Thoughts on Berkshire Hathaway’s Latest Annual Report
Image Shown: Shares of Berkshire Hathaway Inc Class B stock have been on an upward climb since June 2020 with room for additional capital appreciation upside. The top end of our fair value estimate range for BRK.B sits at $275 per share. We continue to like exposure to Berkshire Class B stock in our Best Ideas Newsletter portfolio. The top end of our fair value estimate range sits at $275 per share of BRK.B, indicating the company has room for additional capital appreciation upside as of this writing even after moving higher over the past several months. Just like any investor, Mr. Buffett will not always get it right, but we appreciate his candor when he gets something wrong. Bigger picture, the outlook for the US economy appears strong as public health authorities are utilizing COVID-19 vaccine distribution efforts to help bring an end to the crisis. Mr. Buffett, in his letter, was very upbeat about the US economy. We will end with this comment from the Oracle of Omaha: “Our unwavering conclusion: Never bet against America.”

Feb 8, 2021

Stock Market Outlook for 2021
2020 was one from the history books and a year that will live on in infamy. That said, we are excited for the future as global health authorities are steadily putting an end to the public health crisis created by COVID-19, aided by the quick discovery of safe and viable vaccines. Tech, fintech, and payment processing firms were all big winners in 2020, and we expect that to continue being the case in 2021. Digital advertising, cloud-computing, and e-commerce activities are set to continue dominating their respective fields. Cybersecurity demand is moving higher and the constant threats posed by both governments (usually nations that are hostile to Western interests) and non-state actors highlights how crucial these services are. Retailers with omni-channel selling capabilities are well-positioned to ride the global economic recovery upwards. Green energy firms will continue to grow at a brisk pace in 2021, though the oil & gas industry appears ready for a comeback. The adoption of 5G wireless technologies and smartphones will create immense growth opportunities for smartphone makers, semiconductor players and telecommunications giants. Video streaming services have become ubiquitous over the past decade with room to continue growing as households “cut the cord” and instead opt for several video streaming packages. We’re not too big of fans of old industrial names given their capital-intensive nature relative to capital-light technology or fintech, but there are select names that have appeal. Cryptocurrencies have taken the market by storm as we turn the calendar into 2021, but the traditional banking system remains healthy enough to withstand another shock should it be on the horizon. Our fair value estimate of the S&P 500 remains $3,530-$3,920, but we may still be on a roller coaster ride for the year. Here’s to a great 2021!

Jan 28, 2021

Earnings Roundup of Three High-Yielding Firms: MMM, RTX, VZ
Image Source: 3M Company – Fourth Quarter of 2020 Earnings IR Presentation. The coronavirus (‘COVID-19’) pandemic generated substantial headwinds for the global economy in 2020 and for most businesses large and small, save for many firms operating in the IT sector. However, several large industrial and telecommunications companies are reporting that the outlook for 2021 looks quite bright, relatively speaking, as ongoing vaccine distribution efforts indicate the pandemic will be brought to an end sooner than expected. In this article, let's examine the recent earnings reports from 3M, Raytheon Technologies, and Verizon Communications. Our fair value estimate on S&P 500 stands at 3,530-3,920.

Jan 27, 2021

ALERT: Raising Cash in the Newsletter Portfolios
Our research has been absolutely fantastic for a long time, but 2020 may have been our best year yet. With the S&P 500 trading within our fair value estimate range of 3,530-3,920 (and the markets rolling over while showing signs of abnormal behavior), we're raising the cash position in the Best Ideas Newsletter portfolio and Dividend Growth Newsletter portfolio to 10%-20%. For more conservative investors, the high end of this range may even be larger, especially considering the vast "gains" from the March 2020 bottom and the increased systemic risks arising from price-agnostic trading (read Value Trap). The individual holdings will be reduced in proportion to arrive at the new targeted cash weighting in the respective simulated newsletter portfolios. The High Yield Dividend Newsletter and Dividend Growth Newsletter are scheduled for release February 1. We'll have more to say soon.

Dec 25, 2020

All I Want for Christmas Are Dividend Aristocrats
Image Source: 5 Furlongs. It may not be as catchy as Mariah Carey's Christmas hit, "All I Want For Christmas Is You," but if you ask a dividend growth investor what they might want for Christmas as it relates to an investment, they might start singing about a long list of Dividend Aristocrats--a list of companies that have increased their dividends in each of the past 20-25+ years. Therefore, we wanted to do something special this Christmas for members. We've aggregated a list of every non-financial Dividend Aristocrat in our 16-page stock report coverage universe and made a list conveniently available, including some key data and links directly to their 16-page stock reports (pdf). To access the 16-page stock report of any company on this list, just click on its name, and you'll be prompted to download that particular company's 16-page stock report pdf file. Remember, we provide separate Dividend Reports for stocks, too. For example, the 16-page stock report pdf file that is linked to a company's name in this article is only a portion of the research, commentary, ratings and data on that particular company. Let's take Emerson Electric as an example. Not only does it have a 16-page Stock Report and additional Valuentum commentary via articles and notes, but it also has a Dividend Report. Both pdf reports can be downloaded on its stock web page (the pdf icons are to the right of the stock chart). We hope you enjoy the vast amount of research connected to the download links on this list. Each company's fair value estimate, Dividend Cushion ratio, Economic Castle rating and much more is backed by our three-stage discounted cash flow process with fully populated financial statements, available by request from Gold and Platinum members. Please download away! What's your favorite Dividend Aristocrat? Comments welcome.

Dec 15, 2020

Honeywell Is a Tremendously Resilient Enterprise and a Rock-Solid Dividend Payer
Image Shown: Honeywell International Inc expects its financial performance will post a significant rebound in 2021. Please note this guidance assumed a safe and viable COVID-19 vaccine would get distributed by early-2021, though distribution activities started before then in December 2020, which supports Honeywell’s near-term outlook. Image Source: Honeywell International Inc – Third Quarter of 2020 IR Earnings Presentation. We added one of our favorite industrial stocks Honeywell to the Dividend Growth Newsletter portfolio on November 27 as the firm’s operational and financial performance has proven to be incredibly resilient in the face of the ongoing coronavirus (‘COVID-19’) pandemic. As global health authorities begin to put an end to the pandemic, aided by recent COVID-19 vaccine developments, Honeywell is well-positioned to capitalize on a global economic recovery. Shares of HON yield ~1.8% as of this writing and its Dividend Cushion ratio sits at 2.3, earning the firm a “GOOD” Dividend Safety rating. Please note that the forward-looking Dividend Cushion ratio and Dividend Safety rating incorporates our forecast that Honeywell will push through meaningful dividend increases in the coming years, too, so Honeywell's foundation of dividend health is quite strong even considering future growth in the payout.

Dec 1, 2020

Walking Through the Calculation of the Dividend Cushion Ratio
Image shown: An image found on page 2 of Valuentum's Dividend Report on Kimberly-Clark. The 'Dividend Cushion Ratio Deconstruction,' shown in the image, reveals the numerator and denominator of the Dividend Cushion ratio. At the core, the larger the numerator (or the healthier a company's balance sheet and future free cash flow generation) relative to the denominator (or a company's future expected cash dividend obligations), the more durable the dividend. In the context of the Dividend Cushion ratio, KimberlyClark's numerator is larger than its denominator suggesting strong dividend coverage in the future. The 'Dividend Cushion Ratio Deconstruction' image puts sources of free cash flow in the context of financial obligations next to expected cash dividend payments over the next 5 years on a side-by-side comparison. Because the Dividend Cushion ratio and many of its components are forward-looking, our dividend evaluation may change upon subsequent updates as future forecasts are altered to reflect new information.We believe the Dividend Cushion ratio is one of the most helpful tools an income or dividend growth investor can use in conjunction with qualitative dividend analysis. The ratio is one-of-a-kind in that it is both free-cash-flow based, considers balance sheet health, and is forward looking. Since its development in 2012, we estimate its efficacy at ~90% in helping to forewarn readers of impending dividend cuts. For companies where Valuentum reports are available, the Dividend Cushion ratio can be found in a stock's Dividend Report or in the table on the company's stock landing page. We use Kimberly-Clark as an example of how we calculate the Dividend Cushion ratio and how useful it is for investors of all types.

Nov 4, 2020

We Expect to Raise Our Fair Value Estimate of Honeywell
Image: Honeywell’s Third Quarter 2020 Earnings Release Slide Deck. We may have been a bit too conservative with our latest fair value estimate change of Honeywell in light of our expectations of the impact of COVID-19 on its business. Heading into the COVID-19 crash, our fair value estimate for Honeywell had been north of $150, and we expect to revise it modestly higher than that mark upon the next update of our valuation model. In light of COVID-19, we plan to apply a wider fair value estimate range, too, and that should put shares as fairly valued. Honeywell is our favorite industrial idea, but it remains on the bench in favor of better-positioned net-cash-rich powerhouses currently in the newsletter portfolios.

Nov 2, 2020

ICYMI -- Dividend Growth Strategies Struggle
Image: A large cap growth ETF (orange) has significantly outperformed an ETF tied to a dividend growth strategy, the SPDR S&P Dividend ETF (SDY), which mirrors the total return performance of the S&P High Yield Dividend Aristocrats Index. To no surprise to many members, several dividend growth strategies have faced tremendous pressure during 2020. The Journal recently wrote a piece on the topic, but from our perspective, the problem with many dividend growth strategies is that they tend to be balance-sheet agnostic and pay little attention to traditional free cash flow expectations, focusing only on the yield itself, sometimes dismissing future fundamentals in favor of historical growth trends and the inferior EPS-based dividend payout ratio. In many dividend-targeted ETFs, for example, it may not matter to the index creator whether a firm has $10 billion in net debt or $10 billion in net cash; as long as management has a track record of raising the dividend in the past, it is included. To us, however, there is a world of difference between a company that has a huge net cash position and a huge net debt position. The more excess cash on the balance sheet a dividend payer has, for example, the more secure its payout. In some cases, entities held in high-yielding ETFs don't even cover their dividends or distributions with traditional free cash flow generation, despite having ominous net debt loads. A look at the high-yielding ALPS Alerian MLP ETF, for example, shows a number of entities that are buried under a mountain of debt and are generating meager free cash flow relative to expected distributions. The lofty yield on that ETF should therefore be viewed with a very cautious eye. If the yield weren't at risk for a big cut, the market would bid up the stock, and down the yield would go. In no way should you believe that you can sleep well at night holding stocks yielding north of 10% when the current 10-year Treasury is well below 1%. The market is just not that inefficient. A dividend growth strategy can never be a passive one either. Only through constant attention to the balance sheet (net cash) and future free cash flow expectations can investors truly sleep well at night. At Valuentum, we do the balance sheet and cash flow work and summarize it succinctly in a key ratio called the Dividend Cushion ratio.

Oct 21, 2020

Lockheed Martin Beats Expectations and Raises Guidance Yet Again
Image Shown: Lockheed Martin continued to grow its revenues and segment operating profit in the third quarter of fiscal 2020. Image Source: Lockheed Martin Corporation – Third Quarter of Fiscal 2020 IR Earnings Presentation. On October 20, Lockheed Martin Corp reported third quarter earnings for fiscal 2020 (period ended September 27, 2020) that beat consensus top- and bottom-line estimates. Lockheed Martin’s GAAP sales rose by 9% year-over-year, hitting $16.5 billion, in part due to the company increasing its F-35 aircraft deliveries to 31 in the fiscal third quarter from 28 in the same quarter last fiscal year. Additionally, all four of Lockheed Martin’s core business segments (‘Aeronautics,’ ‘Missiles and Fire Control,’ ‘Rotary and Mission Systems’ and ‘Space’) reported year-over-year sales growth. Lockheed Martin’s diluted EPS from continuing operations rose by over 10% year-over-year last fiscal quarter, though its GAAP diluted EPS was held down (still grew by 7% year-over-year) by a loss from its discounted operations relating to the resolution of a tax dispute stemming from a 2016 divestment.