Valuentum Exclusive Analysis for the Discerning Investor

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Nov 8, 2022

Berkshire Continues to Be a Staple in the Best Ideas Newsletter Portfolio
Image Source: Fortune Live Media. Warren Buffett has made some missteps over the years. For every Occidental Petroleum, there is a Kraft Heinz that hasn’t worked out. For every Apple, there is an IBM that has failed to live up to expectations. We hope our readers view our work in a holistic way, much like they view Buffett’s. In the Best Ideas Newsletter portfolio, for example, where Meta Platforms, PayPal, and Disney haven’t lived up to expectations, other Best Ideas Newsletter portfolio “holdings” such as Exxon Mobil, Chevron, and Vertex Pharma are up 79%, 56%, and 40% so far this year, respectively. We don’t think investors judge Warren Buffett solely on his missteps in Kraft Heinz and IBM (during a bull market no less!), no more than we hope readers won’t judge our work solely on Meta, PayPal, or Disney (during a punishing bear market!), particularly when other ideas are soaring--and the simulated Best Ideas Newsletter portfolio is outdistancing the SPY so far this year. Within any investment portfolio, there will be winners and there will be losers. It’s all part of investing. Buffett understands this. Valuentum understands this. We hope you understand this, too!

Oct 31, 2022

Recent Fair Value Estimate Changes
Let's have a look at recent fair value estimate changes across our coverage universe.

Oct 30, 2022

Something New!
Hi everyone: To stay true to our mission, you'll find something new regarding our methodology. In the coming weeks, you'll see this table in our work going forward.

Oct 27, 2022

VBI Ratings Not as Impressive As We Would Have Liked in 2022
Image: How the VBI rating system has ranked equities so far this year. At Valuentum, we use the Valuentum Buying Index (VBI) to source ideas into diversified simulated newsletter portfolios, and the VBI may be most applicable to the simulated Best Ideas Newsletter portfolio, where we generally like to include ideas when they register a high VBI rating and remove them when they register a low VBI rating. We always use the VBI in a portfolio setting and never by itself. Let's talk more about the VBI rating system in this work.

Oct 20, 2022

Announcing Valuentum’s Customer Appreciation Day Winners!
Let's see who won an autographed copy of Value Trap and what they said about Valuentum's research! We applaud all of our members in their quest to preserve and generate long-term wealth. Keep going strong!

Oct 20, 2022

PepsiCo May Be A Rare Winner in This Inflationary Environment
Image Source: PepsiCo Inc – Third Quarter of Fiscal 2022 Earnings Press Release. PepsiCo is leaning heavily on net pricing increases to offset cost input and foreign currency headwinds, and its strategy is paying off. The consumer staples giant remains a nice free cash flow generator and management is incredibly shareholder friendly, though in our view, we think it would be wise for PepsiCo to pare down its net debt load. We recently added PepsiCo to the simulated Best Ideas Newsletter portfolio on October 18, 2022.

Oct 19, 2022

New Payment Option! Valuentum Research Update!
We're excited to say that we're adding additional payment flexibility at Valuentum. Many members have expressed interest in paying via other providers, and we have added Square to the mix. You can use credit or debit card or bank (ACH) to pay via invoice. With all of the goings-on in the financial technology and payments space, we wanted to continue to provide members options to pay their memberships how they want and through who they want. You can always reach out to us at info@valuentum.com.

Sep 21, 2022

Fed Raises 75 Basis Points; Food Price Inflation Continues to Wreak Havoc on Consumer Budgets
Image Source: Federal Reserve. The Fed upped its key benchmark rate to the range of 3%-3.25% on September 21, but it may not be enough to stem the rise in inflation. We think the market has further room to fall.

Sep 19, 2022

The Success Equation Book Review: Is the Skill Paradox a Myth in Investing? We Think So
Image: The game of baseball has changed during the past 100 years. While many point to a declining standard deviation and coefficient of variation in batting averages for evidence of a paradox of skill in baseball, it's more likely the game has changed. Players are hitting more homeruns, sacrificing batting average as a result. Note the red part of the line is when the game of baseball expanded to the current number of 30 teams. Data from the COVID-19 shortened 2020 season omitted. Source: Baseball Almanac. There's a lot of informational value in reading The Success Equation (and everyone should pick up a copy), but please be careful to come to your own conclusion. From where we stand, there is not a paradox of skill in investing (or baseball, for that matter). The games have simply changed based on new incentives. Some wise person may have written this before: Be careful not in what you read, but rather in the conclusions you draw from your reading. We wish Mauboussin could re-write The Success Equation considering some of the thoughts in this article. Maybe he will!

Sep 13, 2022

Nelson Nailed Food Price Inflation Risks; Markets Heading Lower
Image Source: Liz West. The August CPI report, released September 13, showed that consumer prices advanced 8.3% on a year-over-year basis and are still accelerating, increasing 0.1 percent from July, where the pace was unchanged. Milk was up 17%, poultry up 15.9%, while eggs were up 39.8% in the August CPI report. We don’t think the market was expecting this sizable food price increase, but we were – a view that accounted for one of the reasons for our move to a more bearish stance last month.