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Fundamental data is updated weekly, as of the prior weekend. Please download the Full Report and Dividend Report for any changes.
Mar 20, 2018
Market Overreacts to Oracle’s Cloud Outlook
Image Shown: The performance of Oracle since the March 2009 bottom. Oracle reported in-line fiscal third-quarter results March 19, but its outlook for cloud revenues came in just a bit short relative to consensus expectations. The market seems to be overreacting.
Mar 15, 2018
Cigna, Express, and the Unwinding of the PBM Market
Image Source: Cigna. Given its track record of creative destruction, when Amazon plans to enter a particular line of business, it presents an ominous threat to incumbents. What is often overlooked, too, is that Amazon is more than willing to try new verticals—if they prove promising, additional assets will be devoted to the new line of business, often with fawning media coverage. If Amazon is unsuccessful in its endeavor, however, then it seems as though it will “fail fast” and shut down the project and move on. We found the recent announcement of a joint venture to tackle the healthcare industry as particularly noteworthy.
Mar 9, 2018
Toys ‘R’ Us Liquidation News Transient to Toy Makers
Image Source: Hasbro. Another icon from past decades announced that it may have to liquidate. Though we expect the toy makers to experience a transient impact, we don’t expect it to be lasting. Digital entertainment and licensing remains a faster-growing, higher-margin business for them than physical toy sales, and we expect the focus for many toy makers going forward will be on the former, particularly given Disney’s Frozen success.
Feb 20, 2018
The Future for Independent Advisors and Planners Is…Stock Selection? What?
Image Source: 401K Calculator. "The annual fee of 0.04% to invest in an index ETF, for example, on a portfolio of $250,000 might run about $100/year. Over 25 years, assuming no compounding, that’s $2,500. Setting up a diversified portfolio of 40-50 or so blue-chip, moaty, dividend-paying stocks might cost $200-$300 in total over 25 years, assuming little-to-no turnover, set up through a discount broker. Spread out over dozens of clients, you’re talking real savings for clients."
Feb 15, 2018
Cisco Rallies Big Time!
Image shown: Performance of the S&P 500 (SPY) since August 2017. As US equities continue their newly-found volatility, let’s take a look at some recent earnings reports and other developments around the markets. Cisco, the workhorse of both simulated newsletter portfolios, put up a fantastic report and upped its dividend. Berkshire continues to love Apple, and we maintain the view that the 10-year Treasury rate may be the greatest determinant of how well stocks perform in the coming decades. Airlines, garbage stocks, the “gas tax,” and more.
Feb 9, 2018
Systemic Risk
Image Source: Maximo Santana. We believe the next crisis will not be a banking crisis, but one of a breakdown in market structure.
Feb 8, 2018
Rising Risk Free Rates Threatening Market, Removing CVS and Hanesbrands
The most important variable to keep your eye on, the 10-year Treasury, is rising, and the long-term implications on equity values could be considerable. We don’t think the moves thus far have been too disruptive, but continued concerns over US tax receipts and infrastructure/defense spending could send sovereign yields roaring higher. As fourth-quarter earnings season marches on, let’s take a look at some meaningful recent quarterly reports. We’re also shedding two companies from the simulated newsletter portfolios.
Feb 7, 2018
Hasbro, Boeing Pop as Market Bounces Back
Image Source: US Missile Defense Agency. June 22, 2014 - The Missile Defense Agency's Flight Test 06b Ground-Based Interceptor launches from Vandenberg Air Force Base, Calif. on June 22, 2014. The markets have finally been getting the volatility that we’ve all been waiting for, and we don’t like the idea that the market is now trading more like a cryptocurrency. Granted, it’s important to stay focused over a long-term time horizon, which irons out the ups and downs, but there’s just something about 1,000+ daily swings on the Dow Jones Industrial Average that really doesn’t sit well with us, regardless of what that implies with respect to the percentage change. Can you imagine -- All of this over just a couple basis point increase in the 10-year and one very, very small ETF losing most of its value? What if something truly material happens? This market is fragile.
Jan 31, 2018
Boeing!
Image shown: Boeing's shares have been rocketing higher of late! We couldn’t be more pleased with how one of our best ideas for consideration has performed: Boeing!
Jan 28, 2018
The US Dollar, GDP Expansion, and Earnings
Investors wouldn’t think news flow is that robust given that stock market volatility in recent months has been practically nil, but news is coming in fast. Let’s check up on the performance of the US dollar, the rate of GDP growth as well as key companies reporting fourth-quarter earnings. Intel’s quarterly report was fantastic, for one!


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