Valuentum Exclusive Analysis for the Discerning Investor

Symbol Keyword

Jan 7, 2022

The Metaverse: Qualcomm Expands Partnership with Microsoft
Image Source: Qualcomm Inc – November 2021 Investor Day Presentation. A lot of attention has been directed towards the idea of a metaverse, which in short is an expansive digital universe where users can interact with one another via digital avatars of themselves (or whatever avatar the user prefers). This universe could, in theory, combine the functionality of computers and smartphones with almost every digital platform and application in existence. Users could perform both productivity-related activities (collaborating on work projects, holding team meetings, working with clients) and leisure-related activities (playing games with friends and family, meeting up with distant relatives, watching concerts, other live events, TV shows, and movies) in a seamless fashion. The user would not need to jump from digital platform to platform to access different applications. What the metaverse actually ends up looking like, assuming this concept materializes into something more tangible, remains to be seen. However, what is abundantly clear today is that tech companies are investing heavily to make this vision a reality. Meta Platforms, Qualcomm and Microsoft remain key players.

Dec 26, 2021

VIDEO/TRANSCRIPT: 2021 Valuentum Exclusive Call: Inflation Is Good
Valuentum's President Brian Michael Nelson, CFA, explains why investors should not fear inflation, why government agencies such as the Fed and Treasury are prioritizing something other than price discovery, why the 10-year Treasury rate is a must-watch metric, and why Valuentum prefers the moaty constituents in large cap growth due to their net cash rich balance sheets, tremendous free cash flow generating potential, and secular growth tailwinds.

Dec 21, 2021

Adobe Signals Near Term Growth Rate Slowing Down, Longer Term Outlook Still Quite Bright
Image Source: Adobe Inc – December 2021 Financial Analysts Meeting IR Presentation. On December 16, Adobe reported fourth quarter earnings for fiscal 2021 (period ended December 3, 2021) that modestly beat consensus top- and bottom-line estimates. However, shares of ADBE plummeted in the wake of its latest earnings report as management signaled that the firm’s near term growth rate would slow down in fiscal 2022 versus levels seen in fiscal 2021. Investors were apparently hoping for more, though in our view, Adobe’s longer term growth outlook is still quite bright. Our fair value estimate sits at $576 per share of Adobe.

Dec 7, 2021

Dividend Growth Stocks Soar!
Image: Every stock in the Dividend Growth Newsletter portfolio is in the green today, with a little less than an hour left in the trading session! Image Source: Seeking Alpha. What a day for dividend growth stocks!

Dec 3, 2021

Valuentum Weekly: Nothing Surprising, Well-Positioned!
Image source: Cathie Wood's flagship ETF, the ARK Innovation ETF (ARKK) has fallen more than 40% from its 52-week high. This is nothing short of a complete and utter bloodbath for such an actively-managed fund, in our view. We note this for context. We're not just talking about one or two or five stocks that are down 40% from 52-week highs, but the *entire fund.* Investors have to keep things in perspective. It's perfectly reasonable within the context of a portfolio to have a few stocks off 10%, 20%, or maybe even 50% from all-time highs. However, if your entire portfolio is down 40%+ from 52-week highs, you're doing something wrong.We're finally getting a shake out of the substantial excesses in the market. Entities such as DocuSign are down more than 40% during the trading session December 3, 2021. All-star funds such as the ARK Innovation ETF with well-known fund managers are down over 40% from all-time highs. It's a bloodbath out there if you're not positioned correctly. I can only imagine the sheer panic that's going on right now. It's laughable, but we sometimes get flak if we have one or two or five companies in a couple portfolios of 20-40 stocks that trail the index. My goodness, what must these investors then be saying to fund managers who are down 40%+ from 52-week highs, and whose funds are down 20%-30% on the year when the S&P 500 is up over 20%. It's clear that Valuentum customers demand a lot more from us than even the best, highest-profile managers out there, and we appreciate that. Thank you. A lot of the traditional IBD and Motley Fool stocks look to be stumbling as well. But we're sitting pretty at Valuentum, and here's why.

Dec 1, 2021

Large Cap Growth Dominates, MLPs Have Suffered
Image: Sign up to our new options commentary. $1,000/year. 4 ideas per month and more! Image: Win = The options contract was closed as a win. Closed = the options contract was closed at a loss. Expired = The options contract expired worthless. Pie chart above does not consider ideas still open. Data through October 26, 2021. Results are hypothetical. No trading is taking place. Past performance is not indicative of future performance.On behalf of our team at Valuentum, we hope you had a wonderful Thanksgiving holiday weekend, and we wish you the very best this holiday season. We're hoping for a nice Santa Claus rally! Godspeed, and thank you for your membership and attention these past many years!

Nov 17, 2021

Asset Allocators Fail, Advisors Should Pick Stocks, Save Investors $34 Billion Annually
Image: Most asset allocators can’t even keep pace with the underperforming 60/40 stock/bond portfolio. Highlight added by author. Image Source: Wealth Management. Let’s get this industry back on track. This isn’t about going all-in on cryptoassets or being reckless with one’s capital the past 10 years, but merely picking stocks as a risk/wealth management strategy that approximated the S&P 500 for the past 10 years, and how that has crushed not only the best that quant has had to offer in small cap value but also indexing and asset allocation. One hundred and seventy percentage points of difference relative to the 60/40 stock/bond portfolio, which itself beat many of the “best” asset allocators out there!!! This isn’t about taking on more risk, but rather that active stock selection should be viewed in the same vein as asset allocation. Why do we continue to publish the obviously-biased research in favor of indexing and asset allocation when stock selection could have delivered so much more for investors while saving them billions in annual fees from ETFs, etc. Today, the SEC has a lot on its plate regarding SPACs, cryptocurrency, new issues, ETF approvals and beyond, but in our view, the SEC shouldn’t necessarily be prioritizing 2 and 20 fees more than the index-fund fee chain, and it shouldn’t necessarily be trying to eliminate payment for order flow (PFOF) any more than it should seek to eliminate low-cost index funds. Let us not kid ourselves: It's clear why index funds and passive is winning -- the fees are tremendous! All things considered, if investors want to believe risk is volatility and suffer with indexing and asset allocators, that is their prerogative, but what worked in the past (deviations from equity selection as in the 60/40 stock/bond portfolio) bolstered by high interest rates in the 1980s is far from relevant today (and making up alternative assets isn't going to help). We don’t need more indexing and asset allocation books these days. We need more common sense. Stop selling index funds and start trying to help investors.

Nov 12, 2021

Hard Work and the Trust That Binds
Image: Terry Johnson. It’s easy to forget how much we’ve been through the past two years. Often, we forget how helpful the warning that markets were going to crash was the weekend before they did on February 22, 2020, “Is a Stock Market Crash Coming? – Coronavirus Update and P/E Ratios,” how we thought dollar-cost-averaging made sense at the bottom in March 2020, and how we went “all-in” in April 29, 2020, “ALERT: Going to “Fully Invested” – The Fed and Treasury Have Your Back,” when we saw the writing was on the wall for this blow off top. If nothing else, these three moves alone during the past couple years have paid for a lifetime of subscriptions.

Nov 3, 2021

Large Cap Growth Has More Room To Run
“The stylistic area of large cap growth has been one of our favorite areas because of the strong net cash rich, free cash flow generating, secular growth powerhouses that make up much of the space. The image is a rundown of the key Valuentum statistics for the top 15 holdings of the Schwab U.S. Large Cap Growth ETF (SCHG). We believe where large cap growth goes, so does the broader market, considering the hefty weightings of some of these stocks in other broad-based indices. Based on the high end of our fair value estimate range for this group of bellwethers, the broader U.S. markets still have room to run, to the tune of 7%+, despite the many highs already reached during 2021. Though traditional valuation multiples may seem stretched by most measures, many market bellwethers have huge net cash positions and tremendous free cash flow growth potential. We expect the equity markets to continue to be led by large cap growth.” – Brian Nelson, CFA

Oct 28, 2021

Microsoft: Net Cash Rich, Free Cash Flow Generating, Dividend Growth Powerhouse
Image: Microsoft remains one of the most attractive technology companies. Its outlook for the second quarter of fiscal 2022 came in better than expected. Image Source: Microsoft. Microsoft has long been a favorite of ours. The technology giant continued its dominance into the first quarter of its fiscal 2022 (ends September) and guided the current calendar quarter revenue above consensus forecasts. Its free cash flow generation remains top notch, and its balance sheet is flush with net cash. Microsoft remains an idea in both the Best Ideas Newsletter portfolio and Dividend Growth Newsletter portfolio. Shares have a dividend yield of ~0.8% at the time of this writing. The high end of our fair value estimate range of Microsoft stands at $360 per share.