Valuentum Exclusive Analysis for the Discerning Investor

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Mar 12, 2018

The "Luck" and "Randomness" of Index Funds
If the year-to-year performance of active funds relative to index funds can be considered “random,” so then is the year-to-year performance of index funds relative to active funds, regardless of fees and expenses. Image shown: page 1 of 14.

Feb 23, 2018

In the News: General Mills, Realty Income, Energy Transfer
General Mills makes a big deal, Realty Income delivers, while Energy Transfer tries to battle back to even.

Jan 14, 2018

2018 Starts Out with a Bang!
Image Shown: An ETF that measures momentum (MTUM) has done considerably better than the S&P 500 since the beginning of 2017. Among its top 5 holdings are Microsoft (MSFT), Apple (AAPL), Boeing (BA)—newsletter holdings that have had excellent value characteristics along the way. Visa (V) is also included in its top 10 holdings. Even some the most bullish and optimistic investors have been surprised by the resiliency of today’s market environment. Why does it seem appropriate to remind members that the stock market doesn’t always go straight up with almost no volatility?

Jan 10, 2018

The New Theorem of the Stock Market
Image Source: Value and Momentum Within Stocks, Too (Valuentum). Learn about the new theorem of the stock market.

Jan 9, 2018

Microsoft: A Dividend Growth Giant
Image Source: Microsoft. Microsoft is no longer a tech dinosaur. Estimates suggest it is beating Amazon at its own game. We’re huge fans of Microsoft’s free cash flow generation and balance-sheet health and what that means for the dividend. There’s not a lot to dislike about Microsoft, and while the risks are many, few company’s have a stronger business model.

Jan 8, 2018

Mutual Fund Tragedy, ROE, and the Time Horizon
Comparisons between growth versus value stocks may never go away, but President of Investment Research Brian Nelson explains why you should know better than to think stocks can easily be divided up as such. He talks about this, as well as the pitfalls of ROE (return on equity) and how to think about the time horizon. Running time: ~10 minutes.

Dec 19, 2017

Video: Quants! You're NOT Measuring VALUE and Nelson's Theory of Universal Value
President of Investment Research Brian Nelson defines the concept of universal value and shows how quantitative statistical methods are inextricably linked to those of fundamental, financial, business-model related analysis. Value does not exist in respective process vacuums! Value is universal. Find out why. Running time: ~10 minutes.

Nov 26, 2017

How to Think About Corporate Tax Reform
Image Source: DonkeyHotey. Donald Trump and team are working hard to “Make America Great Again,” and lowering tax rates on corporations is a key initiative. Nobody knows for sure whether such efforts will come to fruition, but knowing how to use our research and understanding the fair value estimate range puts you ahead of the crowd, if it hasn’t already.

Nov 21, 2017

A “Terrible” Negative Alpha-Generating “Trade” and More
Let’s walk through some of the news before the Thanksgiving holiday, and one of the bigger missteps we made during 2017.

Nov 19, 2017

Nelson on Bogle, Part I
Image shown: An example illustrating how the dividend is a component of capital appreciation that otherwise would have been achieved had the dividend not been paid. Such a situation applies to both regular and special dividends. "The kind of commentary that makes broad generalizations about expectations of future returns is exactly why people are so eager to get into passive investment strategies. Since the 1920s, it seems as though the individual investor has assumed the stock market was rigged or impossible for average Joes to figure out, but instead of the "I'll get it next time" mentality that was present leading to the crash of '29, individual investors have "evolved" to the point that now the idea is if you can't beat the market, just buy the whole thing. Leaders like Bogle continue to take tremendous shortcuts in explaining forecasts, leaving the average investor like a student trying to copy math homework off a peer that didn't show his/her work. When the test comes around, and the problem is a bit different, the copier is up a creek." -- The Valuentum Team