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Valuentum Commentary
Aug 14, 2020
Unicredit Struggles to Demonstrate Earnings Power
Image Shown: Summary of Unicredit’s 2Q2020 Results: Image Source: Unicredit 2Q2020 Earnings Presentation. When one looks at individual bank interests and also the national champion nature of many banks that are closely tied to their home countries, it becomes difficult to picture how the overtraded European banking landscape will resolve itself. One scenario is perhaps by smaller banks coming together, though that might not really move the needle that much. We generally dislike the banking industry due to the arbitrary nature of its cash flows, weak economic returns, and highly-regulated nature, and we think Unicredit may be one to avoid, in particular. Aug 14, 2020
BNP Paribas is One of the Stronger Banks in an Overtraded European Landscape
Image Shown: BNP Paribas’s second quarter results held up better than many global bank peers. Image Source: BNP Paribas 2Q2020 Earnings Presentation. While some of the stronger global banks like BNP Paribas are showing that they can take the economic fallout from COVID-19 on the chin while maintaining some degree of earnings power and protecting strong capital levels, other banks with lesser earnings power and balance sheets are falling prey to this cycle with losses and lower capital levels. From our perspective, it is simply easier to find non-bank operating companies with strong moats, sound balance sheets, and visible free cash flow growth into the future. Be careful investing in banks! May 13, 2020
Unicredit Is Best Worth Avoiding
Image Source: Unicredit 1Q2020 Earnings Presentation. The combination of revenue pressure from lower rates, a difficult operating environment, weakening efficiency metrics, one-off losses, and arguable low provisions for credit losses make for an ugly picture emerging at Unicredit at this time. We’re paying close attention to the key banking players in Europe to assess the likelihood of a global financial contagion that may accompany the global pandemic that has become COVID-19. May 28, 2018
Uncertainty of Italy’s Political Future Weighing on Global Investors' Minds
Image shown: Duomo di Milano. Italy holds ~$2.7 trillion in public debt, and global investors are worried that a new government could implement policies that would weaken the country’s credit status. Though a sovereign debt crisis does not seem probable at this point, bond markets are suggesting that risks are rising. Latest News and Media The High Yield Dividend Newsletter, Best Ideas
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