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Fundamental data is updated weekly, as of the prior weekend. Please download the Full Report and Dividend Report for any changes.
Latest Valuentum Commentary

Jan 14, 2025
KB Home’s Outlook for 2025 Better Than Expected
Image: KB Home’s shares have done well since the beginning of 2023. Looking to fiscal 2025, KB Home's housing revenue is expected in the range of $7.00-$7.5 billion, compared to the consensus forecast of $6.89 billion, with the average selling price in the range of $488,000-$498,000. Homebuilding operating income as a percentage of revenues is targeted at roughly 10.7%, which assumes no inventory-related charges. For the year, housing gross profit margin is targeted in the range of 20.0%-21.0% and assumes no inventory-related charges. Selling, general, and administrative expenses as a percentage of housing revenues is expected in the range of 9.6%-10.0%. We liked KB Home’s fourth quarter results and outlook for fiscal 2025 and what they imply with respect to the health of the housing market. KB Home doesn’t make the cut for any newsletter portfolio, however.
Jan 8, 2025
Lowe’s Experiences Softness in Bigger Ticket Discretionary Demand
Image: Lowe’s shares have rallied nicely since the beginning of 2023. Buoyed in part by anticipated modest storm-related demand in the fourth quarter, management expects total sales for the full year 2024 of $83.0-$83.5 billion (was $82.7-$83.2 billion)—consensus was $82.99 billion--and comparable sales to be between -3.0% to -3.5% (was -3.5% to -4.0%). Its adjusted operating margin for the year is now targeted in the range of 12.3%-12.4% (was 12.4%-12.5%), while adjusted diluted earnings per share is expected in the range of $11.80-$11.90 (was $11.70-$11.90), the midpoint above consensus of $11.81. Our fair value estimate of $242 for Lowe’s shares is roughly in-line with where the firm’s equity is trading, and while its recently raised guidance was well-received, we remain on the sidelines with respect to the company in the newsletter portfolios. Shares yield 1.9%.
Dec 11, 2024
Toll Brothers Ends Strongest Year Ever
Image Source: Toll Brothers. Looking to fiscal 2025, Toll Brothers' deliveries are expected in the range of 11,200-11,600 units with an average delivered price per home of $945,000-$965,000 and adjusted home sales gross margin expected at 27.25%. The company’s pace of deliveries is expected to be strong, but the company’s gross margin isn’t as strong as we would like, facing pressure from last year’s adjusted mark. SG&A, as a percentage of home sales revenue is expected in the range of 9.4%-9.5%, up from last year’s measure of 9.3%. Toll Brothers ended its fiscal fourth quarter with $1.3 billion in cash and cash equivalents and $2.7 billion in loans payable and senior notes. The company continues to return cash to shareholders in the form of buybacks and dividends. Though we don’t include Toll Brothers in any newsletter portfolio, the bellwether’s fiscal fourth quarter report indicates the housing market remains healthy.
Nov 13, 2024
Home Depot Navigating Macroeconomic Uncertainty Well
Image: Home Depot’s shares are flirting with all-time highs. Looking to fiscal 2024 guidance, Home Depot expects total sales to increase 4% including SRS Distribution and the 53rd week, up from the prior forecast of 2.5%-3.5%. The 53rd week is expected to add $2.3 billion to total sales, while its SRS acquisition is expected to contribute roughly $6.4 billion in incremental sales. Comparable sales are expected to decline roughly 2.5% for the 52-week period compared to fiscal 2023 and down 3%-4% previously. Adjusted diluted earnings per share is expected to decline roughly 1% from $15.25 in fiscal 2023, including the 53rd week and better than prior expectations calling for a 1%-3% decline. Shares yield 2.2% at the time of this writing.
Aug 27, 2024
Toll Brothers Expects Demand to Remain Solid Into 2025
Image: Toll Brothers stock has done quite well during the past couple years. For its fiscal year 2024 guidance, Toll Brothers expects deliveries of 10,650-10,750 units (was 10,400-10,800) with an average delivered price per home of $975,000. Its adjusted home sales gross margin is targeted at 28.3% for fiscal 2024 (was 28%), while SG&A as a percentage of home sales revenue is expected at 9.4% for the year. Toll Brothers ended its fiscal third quarter with $893.4 million of cash and cash equivalents and $2.8 billion in total debt. Its net debt-to-capital ratio stood at 19.6% at the end of the fiscal third quarter. Though Toll Brothers’ backlog faced declines in its fiscal third quarter, we liked the increased guidance across its key homebuilding metrics.
Aug 14, 2024
Home Depot’s Results Show Weaker Spending on Home Improvement Projects
Image: Home Depot’s shares have been choppy the past few years. Looking to fiscal 2024 guidance, which includes 53 weeks of operating results, Home Depot expects sales to advance 2.5%-3.5% on the year, and comparable sales to decline 3%-4% for the 52-week period compared to 2023. Adjusted operating margin rate is targeted between 13.8%-13.9%, while diluted earnings per share for the 53-week period is targeted to decline 2%-4%. Though Home Depot is navigating a weaker home-improvement spending environment, we like its dividend quite a bit, and the firm remains a key holding in the Dividend Growth Newsletter portfolio. Shares yield 2.6% at the time of this writing.
Aug 9, 2024
Paper: Value and Momentum Within Stocks, Too
Abstract: This paper strives to advance the field of finance in four ways: 1) it extends the theory of the “The Arithmetic of Active Management” to the investor level; 2) it addresses certain data problems of factor-based methods, namely with respect to value and book-to-market ratios, while introducing price-to-fair-value ratios in a factor-based approach; 3) it may lay the foundation for academic literature regarding the Valuentum, the value-timing, and ultra-momentum factors; and 4) it walks through the potential relative outperformance that may be harvested at the intersection of relevant, unique and compensated factors within individual stocks.
Jun 25, 2024
Latest Report Updates
Check out the latest report updates on the website.
Jun 18, 2024
Lennar Navigating Fluctuating Interest Rate Environment Well
Image: Lennar has been a strong performer since the beginning of 2023. We liked the quarterly update from Lennar, and while we won’t be adding this homebuilder to any newsletter portfolio, we’re interpreting its performance as another positive data point regarding the macroeconomic environment.
Jun 10, 2024
Update: Frequently Asked Questions About Valuentum Securities, Inc.
Valuentum (val∙u∙n∙tum) [val-yoo-en-tuh-m] Securities Inc. is an independent investment research publisher, offering premium equity reports and dividend reports, as well as commentary across all sectors/companies, a Best Ideas Newsletter (spanning market caps, asset classes), a Dividend Growth Newsletter, modeling tools/products, and more. Independence and integrity remain our core, and we strive to be a champion of the investor. Valuentum is based in the Chicagoland area. Valuentum is not a money manager, broker, or financial advisor. Valuentum is a publisher of financial information. We address a number of questions from both subscribers and visitors to our site.


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The High Yield Dividend Newsletter, Best Ideas Newsletter, Dividend Growth Newsletter, Nelson Exclusive publication, and any reports, articles and content found on this website are for information purposes only and should not be considered a solicitation to buy or sell any security. The sources of the data used on this website are believed by Valuentum to be reliable, but the data’s accuracy, completeness or interpretation cannot be guaranteed. Valuentum is not responsible for any errors or omissions or for results obtained from the use of its newsletters, reports, commentary, or publications and accepts no liability for how readers may choose to utilize the content. Valuentum is not a money manager, is not a registered investment advisor and does not offer brokerage or investment banking services. Valuentum, its employees, and affiliates may have long, short or derivative positions in the stock or stocks mentioned on this site.