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Valuentum Commentary
Oct 28, 2025
Thinking Slow: 3 Research Blind Spots That Changed the Investment World
Image Source: EpicTop10.com. We have to be on high alert about how our minds work. PBS recently delivered a four-part series examining how easily our minds are being hacked, and why it is so important to "think slow." When it comes to the active versus passive debate, does the analysis suffer from parameter risk? With respect to empirical, evidence-based analysis, does the analysis have the entire construct wrong? When it comes to short-cut multiples, are we falling into the behavioral trap of thinking on autopilot? Aug 19, 2025
Home Depot’s Comps Turn Positive in Second Quarter
Image Source: TradingView. At the end of the second quarter, Home Depot had $2.8 billion in cash and cash equivalents, while total debt stood at $52.3 billion. For the six months ended August 3, net cash provided by operating activities was $9 billion, down from $10.9 billion in the year-ago period. Looking to guidance for 2025, management expects total sales growth of approximately 2.8%, with comparable sales growth of roughly 1% for the comparable 52-week period. It expects to add approximately 13 new stores. Home Depot’s guidance for 2025 calls for a gross margin of 33.4%, with an adjusted operating margin of roughly 13.4%. Adjusted diluted earnings per share is expected to decline 2% from $15.24 in fiscal 2024. Though Home Depot’s second quarter wasn’t blockbuster, it was good to see comparable store sales inflect. Shares yield 2.3% at the time of this writing. Jun 5, 2025
Home Depot Expects Modest Sales Growth in 2025
Image: Home Depot’s shares have been choppy the past few years. Looking to fiscal 2025, Home Depot expects total sales growth of approximately 2.8%, with comparable store sales growth of roughly 1% compared to the same 52-week period last year. Gross margin is targeted at 33.4%, while its adjusted operating margin is expected to be 13.4% for the year. Diluted earnings per share is expected to decline approximately 3%, while adjusted diluted earnings per share is targeted to fall approximately 2%. Capital expenditures are budgeted at 2.5% of total sales. Shares yield 2.5% at the time of this writing. May 19, 2025
3 Undervalued Stocks to Consider Buying Now
All told, we think these three names are ripe for the picking. UnitedHealth Group has clearly plummeted on bad headline news, while the market is not giving Nvidia enough credit for the sustainability of its technology. Alphabet is being weighed down by antitrust issues and the concern that artificial intelligence will permanently alter its business model, which we believe will not happen anytime soon, if at all. All three ideas are included in the Best Ideas Newsletter portfolio, where we include a diversified portfolio of ideas for members to consider. Happy investing! May 6, 2025
Magnificent 7 Earnings Reports Not Bad Thus Far
Shortly after Trump's Liberation Day, where the President unveiled lofty tariffs on numerous countries, we released our wait-and-see outlook for the equity markets, which thus far has proven to be the right move, with the markets largely recovering from the depths reached in April. The S&P 500, for example, is down just 3.3% year-to-date, excluding dividends. A lot has happened since Liberation Day, including easing of tariffs to a 10% baseline for most, if not all, countries, with the key exception of China, where tariffs remain extremely elevated and prohibitive. Many countries are now reportedly negotiating trade agreements with the White House, and we expect China to be added to that list soon, even if a full US/China trade agreement won't be completed in the near term, as full-scale trade deals take time to mold. Thus far, we have been impressed by earnings this season, particularly by the Magnificent 7. Apr 4, 2025
Trump Tariffs Higher than Expected; What We're Doing
The Trump tariff increases came in larger than what we were expecting, and it remains to be seen how they will flow through the global economy, as we monitor potential retaliatory tariffs from other countries. As it relates to the equity markets, we’re taking a wait and see approach at the moment as we monitor new policy changes related to trade, immigration, fiscal (tax), and regulations. In short, we’re not overreacting to the sell off as we won’t have a great handle on the tariff impact to companies for a few quarters when they report results post-tariff increases. That said, we’re expecting continued market volatility, with meaningful risk to the downside, before trade uncertainty alleviates in the coming months. Mar 3, 2025
Home Depot Impacted By Higher Interest Rate Environment, Raises Dividend
Image: Home Depot’s shares have done well since the beginning of 2023. Home Depot expects total sales growth of roughly 2.8% for fiscal 2025, which has one less week than fiscal 2024. For fiscal 2025, comparable sales growth is targeted at approximately 1% for the comparable 52-week period. Management expects to open 13 new stores, while diluted earnings per share is expected to decline approximately 3% from $14.91 in fiscal 2024. Adjusted diluted earnings per share is targeted to decline roughly 2% from $15.24 in fiscal 2024. Home Depot announced it approved a 2.2% increase in its quarterly dividend to $2.30 per share, which equates to an annual dividend of $9.20 per share and marks the 152nd consecutive quarter the company has paid a dividend. Shares yield 2.3% at the time of this writing and remain an idea in the Dividend Growth Newsletter portfolio. Feb 28, 2025
Dividend Increases/Decreases for the Week of February 28
Let's take a look at firms raising/lowering their dividends this week. Jan 14, 2025
KB Home’s Outlook for 2025 Better Than Expected
Image: KB Home’s shares have done well since the beginning of 2023. Looking to fiscal 2025, KB Home's housing revenue is expected in the range of $7.00-$7.5 billion, compared to the consensus forecast of $6.89 billion, with the average selling price in the range of $488,000-$498,000. Homebuilding operating income as a percentage of revenues is targeted at roughly 10.7%, which assumes no inventory-related charges. For the year, housing gross profit margin is targeted in the range of 20.0%-21.0% and assumes no inventory-related charges. Selling, general, and administrative expenses as a percentage of housing revenues is expected in the range of 9.6%-10.0%. We liked KB Home’s fourth quarter results and outlook for fiscal 2025 and what they imply with respect to the health of the housing market. KB Home doesn’t make the cut for any newsletter portfolio, however. Latest News and Media The High Yield Dividend Newsletter, Best Ideas
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Image Source: TradingView. Home Depot updated its guidance for fiscal 2025 to reflect third quarter performance, continued pressure in the fourth quarter from the lack of storm activity, and ongoing consumer uncertainty and housing pressure. Total sales growth for the year is targeted to be approximately 3.0% (was 2.8%), while comparable sales growth is expected to be slightly positive for the 52-week period (was 1%). The home improvement retailer is targeting a gross margin of 33.2% and an adjusted operating margin of approximately 13% for the year. Adjusted diluted earnings per share is expected to decline roughly 5% from $15.24 in fiscal 2024 (was a decline of 2%). It plans to open 12 new stores for the year, with capital expenditures expected at approximately 2.5% of total sales. Though 2025 earnings guidance missed the mark, we continue to like Home Depot as a dividend growth idea. Shares yield 2.6% at the time of this writing.