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Latest Valuentum Commentary
Aug 7, 2021
Image: Bitcoin, technology and large cap growth have led the pack the past 5 years while pipeline MLPs, crude oil and energy stocks have fallen way behind. Large cap growth > small cap value. Bonds, non-US stocks continue to lag. The Valuentum Weekly is a brand-new weekly market commentary from Valuentum Securities, released each weekend in digital form. The Valuentum Weekly offers members a weekly synopsis of the markets and major events. It will be straight and to-the-point. Our goal is to deliver to you the latest information and insights. We welcome your feedback on how we can make the Valuentum Weekly as useful and as relevant for you as ever!
Jun 7, 2021
Favorite Miner Newmont Shines Bright
Image Source: Newmont Corporation – June 2021 IR Presentation. On January 13, 2020, we added shares of Newmont Corp as an idea to the Dividend Growth Newsletter portfolio. The gold miner has a top-notch asset base located in favorable mining jurisdictions with ample reserves to maintain and potentially grow its production base over the coming years. Other than gold, Newmont also produces silver, lead, copper, and zinc. We continue to view Newmont as one of the best positioned miners out there and see the company as a way to hedge against growing inflationary pressures. Shares of NEM yield ~3.1% on a forward-looking basis.
May 10, 2021
Inflation! How to Think About Value Duration
Image Shown: Longer-duration free cash flow stocks are more impacted by changes in inflationary expectations and interest rates (up or down) than stable and/or stable and growing free cash flow generators. This example shows the impact of falling interest rates (10%-->5%) on stable versus longer-duration hypothetical future free cash flow streams, all else equal (the opposite would directionally be applicable in a rising interest rate environment). There's nothing 'all else equal' in the real world though. In the event of rising inflationary expectations, we would still expect speculative technology stocks to take the biggest hit. On the other hand, we would expect strong and growing free cash flow powerhouses that can price ahead of inflation such as big cap tech to handle the environment well. Though banks, energy, and the metals and mining sectors may lead the market for some time, we still like large cap growth and big cap tech for the long run. What many may be overlooking is that, for those with pricing power, higher inflationary expectations translate into higher product and service prices, too. Big cap tech (and their pricing power) is well-positioned to handle such an environment. We’re not overreacting in any respect, and we’re not going to chase commodity prices or commodity producers higher. Commodity prices are simply too difficult to predict in almost all cases, and banking entities are far too susceptible to boom-and-bust shocks for us to get comfortable with their long-term investment profiles. All in, we’re sticking with companies with strong net cash positions and future expected free cash flows (and solid dividend health, where applicable). Some of the strongest companies that have these characteristics can be found in large cap growth and big cap tech. Facebook remains our top idea for long-term capital appreciation potential. In the meantime, we’re comfortable watching the market chase a rotation into more speculative areas.
Mar 12, 2021
Newmont Doubles Down on the “Golden Triangle”
Image Shown: Newmont Corporation has an impressive project pipeline that will help ensure the gold miner’s production levels stay healthy over the decades to come, underpinning its promising long-term cash flow trajectory. We continue to like Newmont as an idea in our Dividend Growth Newsletter portfolio. Image Source: Newmont Corporation – March 2021 IR Presentation. We include gold miner Newmont Corp as an idea in the Dividend Growth Newsletter portfolio. Though gold prices have shifted somewhat lower over the past few months, they remain at levels where Newmont’s free cash flow growth outlook is incredibly bright. Shares of NEM yield ~3.8% on a forward-looking basis as of this writing after the company approved a large dividend increase in February 2021. In this article, we cover Newmont’s recent acquisition, which will add another long-term development opportunity to its global portfolio in a region that was already home to one of Newmont’s promising development opportunities.
Feb 18, 2021
Newmont Approves Another Massive Dividend Increase
Image Shown: An overview of Newmont Corporation’s resource base, which is heavily weighted towards gold with its producing mines primarily located in the Americas and Australia. The company also has some exposure to copper and silver along with other raw materials. Image Source: Newmont Corporation – Fourth Quarter of 2020 IR Earnings Presentation. On February 18, gold miner Newmont Corp reported fourth quarter earnings for 2020 that beat consensus bottom-line estimates but missed consensus top-line estimates. We appreciated the major improvements in Newmont’s balance sheet last year (i.e., sharp reductions in its net debt load), the resilience of its operations in the face of the coronavirus (‘COVID-19’) pandemic, and the company’s ability to continue churning out sizable free cash flows in almost any environment. On February 17, Newmont increased its dividend by ~38% on a sequential basis, which we will cover later in this article. We continue to like exposure to Newmont in the Dividend Growth Newsletter portfolio.
Jan 12, 2021
ALERT: We’re Still Bullish! Some Portfolio Tweaks
Trust you’re doing great, and hope you are enjoying your membership to Valuentum! We’ve received a number of questions from members during the past several weeks, and we’d like to address them briefly in this note. We will write a follow-up note in the coming days that goes into our broader outlook for 2021 and beyond. However, we want to get these takeaways to you as soon as possible, as our inboxes have been overflowing. If you haven’t read our market/analysis recap for the year 2020, please do so.
Oct 30, 2020
Newmont Posts a Stellar Earnings Report, Raises Dividend
Image Shown: An overview of Newmont Corporation’s recent accomplishments. Image Source: Newmont Corporation – Third Quarter of 2020 IR Earnings Presentation. Shares of Newmont Corp are included in the Dividend Growth Newsletter portfolio because we view its long-term dividend growth trajectory quite favorably, and the gold miner has not disappointed. At the start of 2020, Newmont significantly increased its quarterly dividend. Due to a combination of its enlarged dividend, very promising growth outlook, sizable expected synergies from its 2019 acquisition of Goldcorp, and its stellar cash flow profile, we added shares of NEM as a holding to our Dividend Growth Newsletter portfolio on January 13, 2020.
Oct 2, 2020
ICYMI: How Big Is Your "Too Hard" Bucket?
Image Source: Christian Schnettelker. In investing, it's okay to admit that there are some things that investors can't know. It's not a poor reflection of one's analytical ability or a possible shortcoming of one's experience, but rather quite the contrary: Understanding and accepting that some things are "unknowable" is a sign of the quality of one's judgment. Quite simply, certain critical components of the equity evaluation process are more "unknowable" than others. The intelligent investor recognizes the variance (fair value estimate ranges) and the magnitude of the "unknowable" between companies and generally tries to identify entities that have the least "unknowable" characteristics as possible or situations where the "unknowable" might actually be weighted in their favor (an asymmetric fair value distribution).
Sep 11, 2020
Our Thoughts on Newmont’s Bright Outlook
Image Shown: Newmont Corporation’s gold reserves are extensive and should support the gold miner’s ability to generate meaningful cash flows over the years and decades to come. Image Source: Newmont Corporation – August 2020 IR Presentation. As of this writing, shares of NEM yield ~1.5% on a forward-looking basis, and we view its forward-looking dividend coverage as rock-solid given Newmont has a Dividend Cushion ratio of 3.2, earning the firm an “EXCELLENT” Dividend Safety rating. In our view, Newmont offers investors a combination of income growth and capital appreciation upside, and we continue to like Newmont as a holding with a modest weighting in our Dividend Growth Newsletter portfolio. Our Dividend Cushion ratio and Dividend Safety rating factors in our expectations that Newmont will steadily grow its per share dividend over the coming years.
Sep 9, 2020
This Stock Market Doesn't Scare Me
Image Source: EpicTop10.com. Markets are forward looking, and it's very likely we'll see a nice bounce back to north of $200 in S&P 500 earnings per share in 2022 or 2023 (pre-COVID-19 numbers were an achievable $196 per share for 2021), meaning that after the next few months, with political risk now behind us at that time, too, come January 2021, the markets, today, imply they are trading at 16-17x forward earnings, a very reasonable multiple given the Fed/Treasury "put" and the implicit "backing" via equity purchases coupled with the prospect for inflation. Frankly, I'm just not understanding the bears. Right now, the market is experiencing some profit taking, some hedging, some rotation, but not much more than this.
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The High Yield Dividend Newsletter, Best Ideas Newsletter, Dividend Growth Newsletter, Nelson Exclusive publication, and any reports, articles and content found on this website are for information purposes only and should not be considered a solicitation to buy or sell any security. The sources of the data used on this website are believed by Valuentum to be reliable, but the data’s accuracy, completeness or interpretation cannot be guaranteed. Valuentum is not responsible for any errors or omissions or for results obtained from the use of its newsletters, reports, commentary, or publications and accepts no liability for how readers may choose to utilize the content. Valuentum is not a money manager, is not a registered investment advisor and does not offer brokerage or investment banking services. Valuentum, its employees, and affiliates may have long, short or derivative positions in the stock or stocks mentioned on this site.