ICYMI: How Big Is Your "Too Hard" Bucket?
publication date: Oct 2, 2020
author/source: Brian Nelson, CFA
I recently wrote a note about the role of luck in investing, and luck is certainly not to be underestimated when it comes to the long-term success of a company. Even minor changes in the history of the path of successful companies would have relegated them to mere footnotes in the annals of time. Amazon (AMZN), as probably the best example, may not have made it past the dot-com bust without some timely financing just before the dot-com crash in 2000, while other companies may have looked a whole lot different today had just a few things not gone their way, from Apple (AAPL) to Facebook (FB) to Alphabet (GOOG, GOOGL) and beyond.
In investing, it's okay to admit that there are some things that investors can't know. It's not a poor reflection of one's analytical ability or a possible shortcoming of one's experience, but rather quite the contrary: Understanding and accepting that some things are "unknowable" is a sign of the quality of one's judgment. Quite simply, certain critical components of the equity evaluation process are more "unknowable" than others. The intelligent investor recognizes the variance (fair value estimate ranges) and the magnitude of the "unknowable" between companies and generally tries to identify entities that have the least "unknowable" characteristics as possible or situations where the "unknowable" might actually be weighted in their favor (an asymmetric fair value distribution).---
For example, trying to predict a turnaround at General Electric (GE) is a fool's errand, in our view (it's an entirely different company than what it was even 10 years ago), while assessing what may happen with healthcare laws in 2020, let alone 2025, makes many entities in the healthcare space largely "uninvestable." What may happen to the yield curve and loan loss reserves through the course of this recession almost precludes banking (KBE, KRE) ideas for consideration. The huge leverage on the books at MLPs (AMLP) coupled with their meager free cash flow generation almost certainly makes them an "avoid," in our assessment.---
How well General Motors (GM) will compete against Tesla (TSLA) in the next 20 years is at best a coin toss, while the path of the price of crude oil (USO) or gold (GLD) prices--not to mention cryptocurrency--is nearly impossible to predict with any sort of precision. There are some things that can influence commodity prices one way or another, and for every investor that thinks crude oil will be over $40 in 2025, another investor might believe it will be under it. No matter what a mining entity's cost structure, their economic profit is going to be impacted by the price of the rocks and minerals they pull out of the ground.---
How should you think about these types of companies? Warren Buffett and Charlie Munger put stocks that fall into this "unknowable" category in the "Too Hard" pile or "Too Hard" bucket. It is extremely important for you to have your own "Too Hard" bucket, too, and it should be large. Jason Zweig writes in Your Money and Your Brain:---
...your investing workspace should have a small "In" box with a handful of ideas to consider, a little "Out" box holding another few ideas you've already approved or rejected--and an enormous "Too Hard" pile for everything else.---
I'm not talking about a "Too Hard" pile of 50% of companies you've looked at; I'm talking 90%, or perhaps maybe 99%!---
In my opinion, there are probably 150 stocks in our coverage of hundreds and hundreds of stocks that meet the qualifications to be in your "In" box. The rest may fall into a "Too Hard" pile. In our "Too Hard" pile, for example, we put most of the energy sector--including metals, mining and chemical companies--as well as banks and financials (including insurance), and a large number of "old economy" names, including General Motors and General Electric, as examples. We're not going to pretend that we know what will happen to healthcare laws in 2025, and for certain situations like this, we like broad-based exposure to healthcare as in the Health Select Sector SPDR (XLV). We may stretch into the "Too Hard" pile for yield and income at times, but we're knowledgeable of the many incremental risks of doing so. You should be aware of them, too.---
We think most of the market agrees with our assessment regarding many of the "Too Hard" sectors. Energy (XLE) and financials (XLF) continue to be among the worst performing sectors, "old economy" names such as General Electric and General Motors remain out of favor, and the market continues to prefer ideas in the Best Ideas Newsletter portfolio and Dividend Growth Newsletter portfolio--and for good reason. The names in our newsletter portfolios are rather easy to understand, have strong balance sheets, considerable future free cash flow potential, excellent visibility into their growth prospects (recurring revenue models) and competitively advantaged operations.---
The riskiest types of companies should be in your "Too Hard" pile, and you might find these are companies that have those "tricky" low earnings multiples--and all the makings of value traps. These companies aren't cheap; they're just riskier with more "unknowable" aspects to their business models. For every Facebook or Alphabet in your "In" box, there should be 20-30, or more, in your "Too Hard" pile. Our brains on autopilot might try to lure us into the low P/Es across some of these "Too Hard" sectors, but our experience, judgment, and "slow thinking" might instead point to big cap tech and large cap growth as where the true long-term bargains might be had. These areas, to little surprise, have heavily outperformed.---
There are "unknowable" aspects to many names in our "In" box, too, but we try to keep the degree of the "unknowable" as small as possible, and we weigh the upside of the "unknowable" with the potential downside. For example, we might fully accept the "unknowable" aspect of whether Facebook might be broken up due to antitrust measures because this could potentially be another catalyst for upside (as the market is forced to value the company on a sum of the parts basis). On the other hand, the upside for many "zombie" companies in the energy space may not be much, and the "unknowable" in this case might be more heavily weighted to the downside (if energy resource prices continue to tumble). Where possible, we prefer the "unknowable" to be weighted to the upside.---
The role of luck will always play an important role in any investment outcome, but in my view, when it comes to stocks in your "In" box, they should be ones with strong net cash positions, solid expected future free cash flows, impressive competitively-advantaged business models with strong visibility into future growth (and dividend/income potential, where applicable). As in the nature of fat pitch investing, you don't have to swing at every pitch, or concern yourself with companies in the "Too Hard" pile. If something has a huge net debt position or doesn't generate sufficient free cash flow to comfortably cover its dividend, put it in the "Too Hard" bucket and move on. Treat your "In" box to companies in our newsletter portfolios for consideration.
Your "Too Hard" bucket should nonetheless be enormous!---
Brian Nelson, CFA
President, Investment Research
Valuentum Securities, Inc.
The Second Edition of Value Trap! Order today!
Related: DVA, EHC, HCA, UHS, UNH, ABC, CAH, HSIC, MCK, PDCO
Valuentum members have access to our 16-page stock reports, Valuentum Buying Index ratings, Dividend Cushion ratios, fair value estimates and ranges, dividend reports and more. Not a member? Subscribe today. The first 14 days are free.
Brian Nelson owns shares in SPY, SCHG, DIA, QQQ, and VOT. Some of the other securities written about in this article may be included in Valuentum's simulated newsletter portfolios. Contact Valuentum for more information about its editorial policies.
1 Comments Posted Leave a comment