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Fundamental data is updated weekly, as of the prior weekend. Please download the Full Report and Dividend Report for any changes.
Latest Valuentum Commentary

Feb 24, 2020
ALERT: Adding Market Crash 'Protection,' Removing MSFT, BKNG
Image source: Centers for Disease Control and Prevention.  We're adding out-of-the-money put options to both the Dividend Growth Newsletter portfolio and Best Ideas Newsletter portfolio. We're removing Microsoft from the Dividend Growth Newsletter portfolio, and we're removing Booking Holdings from the Best Ideas Newsletter portfolio. We reiterate that, had the Dow Jones Industrial Average already swooned a couple thousand points on news of the COVID-19 outbreak, we might have considered some undervalued stocks with strong momentum potential "buying opportunities." However, to this point in time, the markets have largely ignored COVID-19, with major US indices still sitting near all-time highs. We could be in for a wild ride in the coming weeks and months, and an outright market crash is not out of question. For those looking for short-idea considerations, please consider the Exclusive publication here. We remain fully-invested in the High Yield Dividend Newsletter portfolio given its yield and income focus.
Feb 22, 2020
Is a Stock Market Crash Coming? -- Coronavirus Update and P/E Ratios
Image Source: World Health Organization, Coronavirus disease 2019 (COVID-19), Situation Report -- 32. We don’t think this is the environment to put new capital to work, and we remain highly cautious of what COVID-19 means for global economic growth not just in the first quarter of 2020 but for the rest of this year (maybe longer). Right now, the US markets are not really factoring in anything related to COVID-19, and perhaps may be adjusting to China’s stimulus in artificially propping up the markets as if the outbreak is somehow a “positive thing.” With the S&P 500 trading at 19.0 forward earnings estimates--estimates that are likely too high given the evidence we are seeing with respect to a slowdown due to COVID-19--and corporate debt levels more elevated than ever before (note, a high net debt level should depress the P/E in enterprise valuation--US corporate debt has advanced 50% over the past decade, to $10 trillion), it is our contention that the current market reflects a “situation-equivalent” forward P/E (i.e. rightsizing for new net debt relative to the dot-com peak and adjusting for lower forward earnings expectations compared with current forecasts) perhaps greater than 24.4, which was recorded at the peak of the dot-com bubble. Though interest rates are lower than they were at the time of the dot-com crash, suggesting a modest reasonable bump to normalized forward P/E ratios of ~15 times to reflect “fair valuations,” we could seriously be in for fundamental-driven crash soon, as both the earnings multiple and earnings estimates contract aggressively. Hypothetically, a contraction to a 16x forward multiple on earnings estimates just 10% lower than currently forecast implies an S&P 500 of 2,566, or a swoon of about 20%-30% from current levels--and that would just get us down to 16x still-respectable forward numbers. How quantitative-driven price-agnostic trading may impact this scenario is not known either, and all of this could be setting up for a wild ride in the coming weeks and months. Fasten your seatbelts. We’ll have a few newsletter portfolio alerts coming Monday.
Feb 11, 2020
PayPal Closes Out a Stellar 2019 and the Future Looks Bright
Image Shown: PayPal Holdings Inc has been a big winner in our Best Ideas Newsletter portfolio, and we expect that to continue being the case going forward. PayPal Holdings is one of our favorite companies out there in the payment processing/financial tech space, up there with top weighted Best Ideas Newsletter portfolio holding Visa, and back on January 13 we increased our weighting in shares of PYPL in the Best Ideas Newsletter portfolio. We like PayPal’s rock-solid balance sheet, quality cash flow profile, and most importantly, its growth outlook.
Jan 23, 2020
Resetting Your Mental Model
Image Source: affen ajlfe. Having the right mental model and using the right information can be the reason why you win or lose in investing.
Jan 15, 2020
Visa Enhances Its Long-Term Outlook
On January 13, top weighted Best Ideas Newsletter portfolio holding Visa announced it was buying financial tech company Plaid for $5.3 billion. Plaid primarily offers a network that allows consumers to connect financial accounts to apps securely and safely, meaning that when a consumer downloads a mobile financial-oriented app to their phone (for example), Plaid is the company that ensures a smooth connection between app and the relevant financial institution when it comes to transferring information and ultimately money. What’s important about this acquisition is that Visa, once again, is showcasing its ability to spot and capitalize on high quality opportunities within the financial services space.
Jan 4, 2020
Valuentum Exclusive Success Rates Trump Even the Best Quant Hedge Funds
Image: President of Investment Research Brian Nelson, CFA. A new book, “The Man Who Solved the Market,” hit bookshelves last year, and thus far it has been a hit. The text goes into the story of quant hedge fund Renaissance Technologies and its hedge fund, the Medallion Fund, which has put up mammoth returns since inception.
Nov 19, 2019
Improving Our Coverage
Valuentum continues to scour the stock market for new ideas. We’ll be following the set of companies in this list via commentary on our website and a data sheet updated periodically.
Oct 27, 2019
Our Reports on Stocks in the Financial Tech Services Industry
Image Source: frankieleon. Our reports on stocks in the Financial Tech Services industry can be found in this article. Reports include MA, MELI, PYPL, V, VRSK.
Oct 25, 2019
Portfolio Holdings Intel and Visa Hit It Out of the Park
Image Shown: Shares of Intel Corporation leapt higher on Friday October 25 as the market digested its solid earnings report and guidance for this quarter. We continue to really like Intel in our Dividend Growth Newsletter portfolio and Best Ideas Newsletter portfolio, and Visa in our Best Ideas Newsletter portfolio. The share price action seen in shares of INTC and V on Friday October 25 seem to indicate the market really appreciated each company’s latest earnings report, with shares of both companies marching higher as of this writing.
Oct 24, 2019
Shares Up +9%; Best Ideas Newsletter Portfolio Holding PayPal Posts a Blowout Quarter
Image Source: PayPal Holdings Inc – Third quarter 2019 earnings press release.  We think PayPal should continue to perform very well going forward as secular growth tailwinds combined with strong operational performance (with an eye towards its rising ‘Merchant Services’ and Venmo total payment volumes) support the company’s free cash flow growth trajectory. The company does not pay out a common dividend at this time but could given its pristine balance sheet and quality free cash flow profile. Our fair value estimate for PYPL stands at $125 per share at the time of this writing.


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The High Yield Dividend Newsletter, Best Ideas Newsletter, Dividend Growth Newsletter, Nelson Exclusive publication, and any reports, articles and content found on this website are for information purposes only and should not be considered a solicitation to buy or sell any security. The sources of the data used on this website are believed by Valuentum to be reliable, but the data’s accuracy, completeness or interpretation cannot be guaranteed. Valuentum is not responsible for any errors or omissions or for results obtained from the use of its newsletters, reports, commentary, or publications and accepts no liability for how readers may choose to utilize the content. Valuentum is not a money manager, is not a registered investment advisor and does not offer brokerage or investment banking services. Valuentum, its employees, and affiliates may have long, short or derivative positions in the stock or stocks mentioned on this site.