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Latest Valuentum Commentary

Apr 27, 2021
Tesla Scaling Up Nicely
Image Shown: Tesla is steadily working towards bringing another manufacturing facility online in the US, this time near Austin, Texas. Image Source: Tesla Inc – Shareholder Letter Covering the First Quarter of 2021. Electric vehicle (‘EV’) giant Tesla continues to impress as it smashed past consensus top- and bottom-line estimates when it reported first quarter 2021 earnings on April 26. The company delivered 184,800 vehicles (182,780 Model 3/Y variants and 2,020 Model S/X variants) and produced 180,338 vehicles in the first quarter of this year, though we note that Tesla only produced Model 3/Y variants last quarter and Model S/X vehicle deliveries were met via its inventory. In the first quarter of 2021, Tesla’s ‘automotive revenues’ of $9.0 billion were up 75% year-over-year, its GAAP revenues of $10.4 billion were up 74% year-over-year, and its GAAP net income came in north of $0.4 billion (up sharply from year-ago levels).
Jan 8, 2021
Dividend Increases/Decreases for the Week January 8
Let's take a look at companies that raised/lowered their dividend this week.
Jan 5, 2021
The Electric Vehicle (EV) Market Is Hot and Getting Hotter
Image Shown: A look at Tesla Inc’s new Gigafactory factory (Model Y body shop) in Shanghai, China. Image Source: Tesla Inc – Third Quarter of 2020 IR Earnings Presentation. The electric vehicle (‘EV’) market is hot and getting hotter. Aided by a combination of supportive government policies such as subsides for EVs (purchase tax credits, manufacturing tax credits), plans to ban the sale of automobiles powered by internal combustion engines (‘ICE’) in the coming years, and shifting consumer preferences (households preferring to appear “green”), the long-term outlook for EV sales is quite bright. Tesla is the posterchild of the EV boom given its first-mover advantage, though competitive headwinds are rising. Legacy auto manufacturers are looking to bulk up their EV offerings while new market entrants such as Lordstown Motors and privately-held Rivian, are set to further disrupt the industry. Ford Motor invested in Rivian back in 2019 to bulk up its presence in the EV market. By the middle of 2021, Rivian aims to begin deliveries of its EV pickup truck in the US, the R1T. Lordstown Motors also aims to bring an EV pickup truck to market, named the Endurance, with deliveries set to begin in early-2021. However, as global EV sales appear set to grow immensely, there is room for a number of winners in this space. Back in July 2020, privately-held Deloitte estimated that global EV sales will grow from an estimated 2.5 million in 2020 to 11.2 million in 2025 and then to 31.1 million by 2030, good for annual compound growth of about 29% in the coming decade, according to the research firm. EV sales in China are expected to represent about half of global EV sales in 2030, according to Deloitte, followed by the European market representing just over one quarter of global EV sales in 2030.
Nov 5, 2020
General Motors Playing Catch Up
Image: Hummer EV. According to General Motors’ website, the Hummer EV will be a “zero emissions, zero limits all-electric supertruck.” Today’s GM is in much better shape than it was during the Great Financial Crisis when it succumbed to legacy issues as evidenced by its resilience during the COVID-19 meltdown, but the reality is that operationally-leveraged cyclicals with sticky costs, messy financials, and encroaching rivals don’t tend to command a large multiple. Throw in the opaqueness of its financing arm, which adds $88.9 billion in long-term debt to the balance sheet as of the end of last year, and GM becomes too difficult a stock to own, in our view. At $36 each, GM’s shares may have bounced back a bit too much based on our fair value estimate.
May 15, 2020
Dividend Increases/Decreases for the Week Ending May 15
Let's take a look at companies that raised/lowered their dividend this week.
Oct 7, 2019
General Motors and the Union Strike!
Image Source: General Motors Company – IR Presentation. A holding in both our Best Ideas Newsletter and Dividend Growth Newsletter portfolios, shares of General Motors have come under pressure over the past month from the ongoing strike that involves roughly 46,000-48,000 of its workers (primarily in the US). Our fair value estimate for shares of General Motors stands at $48 per share, well above where GM is trading at as of this writing. We continue to like the name and will be monitoring ongoing UAW-GM talks very closely going forward. Shares of GM yield 4.4% as of this writing.
Jul 25, 2018
General Motors Cuts Guidance on Higher Input Costs
Image Source: GM earnings release. Simulated newsletter portfolio idea General Motors cut its full-year guidance due to higher than expected commodity cost increases and devaluation of key currencies in South America. Peers Ford and Fiat Chrysler also lowered 2018 guidance measures following a tough second quarter for the group.
May 28, 2018
Uncertainty of Italy’s Political Future Weighing on Global Investors' Minds
Image shown: Duomo di Milano. Italy holds ~$2.7 trillion in public debt, and global investors are worried that a new government could implement policies that would weaken the country’s credit status. Though a sovereign debt crisis does not seem probable at this point, bond markets are suggesting that risks are rising.
Sep 7, 2017
Why Won’t GM Break Out Already?
What is it going to take for General Motors to catapult to new heights?
Aug 5, 2016
Major Automakers: Fundamental Uncertainty But Potential Investment Opportunity…Soon
Image Source: Ford. The fates of major US automakers General Motors and Ford remain as tethered as ever, but we remain in awe at how punitive “this” frothy market is on their respective valuations. For one, GM is trading at 5 times forward adjusted earnings and boasts a near-5% dividend yield!

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