Fundamental data is updated weekly, as of the prior weekend. Please download the Full Report and Dividend Report for any changes.
Latest Valuentum Commentary
Oct 22, 2020
News Brief: Stay at Home Stocks, REITs, Housing, Oracle, and AT&T
Image: Number of COVID-19 cases reported weekly by WHO Region, and global deaths, 30 December 2019 through 18 October 2020. Source: WHO. The COVID-19 pandemic continues to rage on, though the healthcare community has become more adept at reducing the incidence of death given the many treatments now available to battle the disease. We continue to stay the course with the newsletter portfolios. Many of our favorites include Apple, Microsoft, Facebook, Alphabet, and PayPal, among other moaty, net-cash-rich, free-cash-flow generating powerhouses tied to secular growth trends. Our focus remains on the long haul. The business models of many stay-at-home stocks are solid as they continue to reap the rewards of the accelerated trends of home office use and e-commerce proliferation. Housing-related names are also benefiting as consumers adjust their lifestyles to accommodate a post-COVID-19 world. Many pockets of the economy still remain ill, and the slow fading of the attractiveness of commercial / office / apartment space may rear its ugly head as this new decade continues. As was the case with the department stores, they may hang around for years (decades) with myriad fits and starts, but it will be an uphill battle for REITs operating in these areas. We see little reason to bottom fish in airlines, cruise lines, or fickle mall-based retail, for example, but there may be select opportunities in the restaurant arena with Chipotle and Domino’s. The financials and energy sectors are two areas we continue to avoid, more generally, and they have continued to underperform.
Oct 22, 2020
Image: The performance of ideas in the Best Ideas Newsletter portfolio during the trading session October 21. Many of the higher-weighted ideas in the newsletter portfolio are propelling the portfolio to relative outperformance. The Best Ideas Newsletter portfolio comprises a portfolio constructed of Valuentum's best ideas. These are companies that have scored favorably on the Valuentum Buying Index (VBI) and have been included in the newsletter portfolio with consideration of sector diversification and market/economic risk. The Best Ideas Newsletter portfolio is found in the Best Ideas Newsletter, which is released on the 15th of each month. Source: Seeking Alpha.
Oct 13, 2020
Great Day in the Markets!
Image: The Invesco QQQ Trust, an exchange-traded fund based on the NASDAQ 100 index, had a great day during the trading session October 12, as it leads all major indexes on the year. The trading session October 12 was a sight to see. The Dow Jones Industrial Average advanced 0.88%, the S&P 500 jumped 1.64%, while the NASDAQ powered ahead an incredible 2.56%. As many of our members know, the Best Ideas Newsletter portfolio and Dividend Growth Newsletter portfolio are very heavily weighted in large cap growth, big cap tech, and the NASDAQ.
Oct 9, 2020
The Resilience of the US Digital Advertising Market and Alphabet
Image Shown: Shares of Alphabet Inc Class C shares, a top-weighted holding in our Best Ideas Newsletter portfolio, have performed very well over the past year. Going forward, we see room for significant capital appreciation upside as the digital advertising market has proven to be very resilient of late. To ride out the ongoing coronavirus (‘COVID-19’) pandemic, we continue to prefer large-cap tech companies with pristine balance sheets, strong cash flow profiles, and promising long-term growth outlooks. Ideally, we are searching for companies with outlooks that are supported by secular growth tailwinds, allowing for several winners in their respective end markets. Digital advertising is a prime example of a resilient high-quality market that is supported by secular growth tailwinds. Alphabet perfectly bits the bill given its ~$117.1 billion net cash position at the end of June 2020 (not including ~$13.0 billion in non-current non-marketable securities, and with no short-term debt on the books), and considering it generated over $14.0 billion in free cash flow during the first half of 2020 alone. We include Alphabet Class C shares as a top-weighted holding in our Best Ideas Newsletter portfolio, and the top end of our fair value estimate range sits at $1,795 per share of GOOG.
Oct 2, 2020
ICYMI: How Big Is Your "Too Hard" Bucket?
Image Source: Christian Schnettelker. In investing, it's okay to admit that there are some things that investors can't know. It's not a poor reflection of one's analytical ability or a possible shortcoming of one's experience, but rather quite the contrary: Understanding and accepting that some things are "unknowable" is a sign of the quality of one's judgment. Quite simply, certain critical components of the equity evaluation process are more "unknowable" than others. The intelligent investor recognizes the variance (fair value estimate ranges) and the magnitude of the "unknowable" between companies and generally tries to identify entities that have the least "unknowable" characteristics as possible or situations where the "unknowable" might actually be weighted in their favor (an asymmetric fair value distribution).
Sep 29, 2020
Facebook’s Promising Growth Outlook
Image Shown: Top-weighted Best Ideas Newsletter portfolio holding Facebook Inc has seen its stock price surge higher over the past year and we see room for considerably more capital appreciation upside. Facebook’s growth trajectory will depend in large part on how effective the firm is at generating more revenue per active user, especially in markets outside of the US & Canada. The emergence of a large global middle class should assist in these endeavors. We view Facebook’s growth outlook quite favorably and continue to be big fans of the social media giant. Facebook continues to be one of our favorite companies out there. Shares of Facebook are included as a top-weighted holding in our Best Ideas Newsletter portfolio. Our fair value estimate for FB sits at $284 per share, though should the firm outperform our “base case” assumptions, Facebook could carry a fair value estimate as high as $355 per share. We are enormous fans of Facebook’s net cash balance (~$58.2 billion in net cash at the end of June 2020), high quality cash flow profile (relatively modest capital expenditures are required to maintain a certain level of revenue), and incredibly promising long-term outlook that is supported by secular growth tailwinds.
Sep 22, 2020
Update on TikTok Saga
Image Shown: Shares of Oracle Corporation, a holding in our Dividend Growth Newsletter portfolio, have performed well recently as excitement grows over the company’s improving long-term growth outlook. Oracle may soon become a strategic shareholder in the rising social media star TikTok, alongside Walmart Inc and various US-based venture capital firms. Some big news emerged this past weekend involving TikTok that we wanted to bring to our members attention. We covered this story in detail in late-August and mid-September, and encourage our members to check out those articles for additional background information. In brief, TikTok is currently owned by Beijing-based ByteDance, a company that has been accused of being an extension of China’s central government (meaning a security threat to Western interests) which in turn prompted the White House to push for a sale of TikTok’s US operations or an outright shutdown/ban of the app in the US. This past weekend, President Trump stated he approved of a proposed deal that would involve Oracle Corp and Walmart taking a strategic equity stakes in a newly created firm called TikTok Global, which will likely be based in the US.
Sep 18, 2020
Your Role as a Choice Architect
Image: Impact Hub Global Network. Richard Thaler in his groundbreaking book Nudge, co-written with Cass Sunstein, talked about the role of the choice architect. A choice architect is basically someone or some organization that has the responsibility for organizing the context and content in which people make decisions. At Valuentum, we can never provide personalized buy/sell advice, but in providing publishing services, we've opted for the healthy option for members, and that sometimes means you won't find a large selection of dessert options. This isn't a shortcoming of our service (i.e. we know desserts are tempting), but rather a key positive attribute. As we've shown time and time again, you don't need to look far to beat the market return (or, by comparison, to have a healthy diet). If something is not on the menu at Valuentum, it means the chef has something better cooking in the kitchen. Here's to your long-term financial health!
Sep 16, 2020
Brain Teaser - Reflexive versus Reflective
Image: Amy Leonard. Valuation multiples tend to trigger the reflexive side of our brain, and we process the multiples through anchoring, in most cases. On the other hand, enterprise valuation, or the process required to answer the second set of questions in this article correctly, shows that our reflexive process can be quite incorrect at times. In fact, cognitive biases such as anchoring can completely trip us up into missing out on truly undervalued companies while baiting us into value traps.
Sep 15, 2020
Oracle Appears to Be Front-Runner for TikTok’s US Assets, Though There Are Caveats
Image Shown: Shares of Dividend Growth Newsletter holding Oracle Corporation jumped higher on September 14 as the tech giant is reportedly getting closer to acquiring TikTok’s operations in the US and potentially elsewhere, though there are a lot of unknowns at this point. Reportedly, Oracle Corp has submitted a proposal to become the “trusted technology partner” of the popular yet controversial social media app TikTok, particularly at TikTok’s US operations (and possibility some other countries as well). TikTok is currently owned by Beijing-based ByteDance. We will likely know more about a potential deal sooner rather than later, though there are a lot of unknowns at this point as it does not appear Oracle’s proposal is a straightforward acquisition.
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The High Yield Dividend Newsletter, Best Ideas Newsletter, Dividend Growth Newsletter, Nelson Exclusive publication, and any reports, articles and content found on this website are for information purposes only and should not be considered a solicitation to buy or sell any security. The sources of the data used on this website are believed by Valuentum to be reliable, but the data’s accuracy, completeness or interpretation cannot be guaranteed. Valuentum is not responsible for any errors or omissions or for results obtained from the use of its newsletters, reports, commentary, or publications and accepts no liability for how readers may choose to utilize the content. Valuentum is not a money manager, is not a registered investment advisor and does not offer brokerage or investment banking services. Valuentum, its employees, and affiliates may have long, short or derivative positions in the stock or stocks mentioned on this site.