Valuentum Exclusive Analysis for the Discerning Investor

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Dec 11, 2023

Oracle’s “Business Is Good and Getting Better”
Image Source: Peter Kaminski. On December 11, Oracle reported mixed second-quarter results for its fiscal 2024 that showed total revenue advancing 5% on a year-over-year basis (4% in constant currency), slightly lower than expectations, and non-GAAP earnings per share of $1.34 that came in slightly ahead of what the market was looking for. The company’s non-GAAP operating margin of 43% in the quarter helped to drive non-GAAP net income 14% higher than the same period a year ago (11% in constant currency). We’re not letting the slight miss on the top line sway us from our constructive stance on shares. Our fair value estimate stands at $108 per share, about in-line with where shares are currently trading.

Dec 10, 2023

First Gene-Editing Therapy Coming to Market; Reiterating Our Positive Stance on Vertex Pharma
Credit: Darryl Leja, NHGRI. On December 8, 2023, the U.S. Food and Drug Administration announced that it had approved Vertex Pharma’s and CRISPR Therapeutics’ novel gene-editing therapy (“Casgevy” – exa-cel) for sickle cell disease [SCD] in patients that are 12 years of age or older. This is the first such approval of its kind in U.S. history and will likely open the door for more gene-editing therapies for other rare diseases in the future. Estimates indicate that roughly 16,000 people will be eligible for the treatment at an estimated cost of around $2.2 million each, according to Reuters. The one-time market size of roughly $35.2 billion is a needle-mover, but the pace and timing of adoption of the therapy among the eligible population is difficult to estimate at this time. Note also that the therapy is of one-time application, meaning the therapy is a functional cure and will not be a source of recurring revenue from each patient. Nevertheless, it is an exciting development for medical science.

Nov 27, 2023

Can Things Really Stay This Good?
"Large cap growth is booming. Small cap value is trailing. Dividend payers are stagnating. The markets are making a lot of sense again. But I do have my worries. When things are going this well, some market choppiness is probably in the cards. The S&P 500 is now bumping up against the high end of its downtrend, so the remainder of this year will likely see some increased volatility. On the back of Nvidia’s momentum and the great promise of artificial intelligence, however, I wonder if the first half of 2024 will be awesome followed by a very difficult back half of 2024 as some of my concerns finally catch up to the markets. But that just might be at the time the Fed starts cutting rates." -- Brian Nelson, CFA

Oct 25, 2023

Visa’s High Margin Business Reveals Consumer Spending Remains Resilient
Image: Visa has been a strong performer thus far in 2023. On October 24, Best Ideas Newsletter portfolio holding Visa reported excellent fourth-quarter results for its fiscal 2023. Net revenues advanced 11% on a year-over-year basis, while non-GAAP net income and non-GAAP earnings per share leapt 18% and 21% year-over-year, respectively, in the period. For the fiscal year, Visa generated an impressive 64.4% operating margin. Payments volume increased 9% and cross-border volume advanced 16%, showcasing that the consumer remains very healthy thanks in part to low unemployment rates, despite concerns over higher mortgage costs, student loan repayments, and general economic uncertainty as savings accrued during the COVID-19 pandemic wane. We continue to be big fans of Visa as our top payments-related idea.

Jul 27, 2023

“Bought” Low and “Sold” Low with Meta
Image: Shares of Meta Platforms have been on a wild ride the past few years. We didn’t do well with the stock, unfortunately. Let the good times roll in big cap tech and large cap growth! What a fantastic year 2023 is turning out to be and thank you for sticking with us. If Meta serves as any example for you, it should be that you shouldn’t expect us to get everything "right," but it should be very, very clear that we’ve gotten far more things “right” than we’ve gotten “wrong” over the years. Cheers!

Jan 10, 2023

Dow Laggard Walgreens Boots Alliance Yields North of 5%; Has Raised Dividend for 47 Consecutive Years
Image: Walgreens Boots Alliance’s shares have been pummeled during 2022. Image Source: TradingView. Key metrics, including free cash flow and adjusted earnings per share, aren’t presently moving in the right direction at Walgreens Boots Alliance, but free cash flow generation remains in excess of cash dividends paid. The company, and its predecessor firm, Walgreen Co., have paid 360 straight quarters of dividends over the past 90 years, too, raising the payout in each of the past 47 years. It’s absolutely amazing for a company to have such a storied history and reliable dividend track record, but it’s also worth emphasizing Walgreens Alliance Boots is far from a simple story these days. Still, with a 5%+ forward estimated dividend yield, this component of the Dow Jones Industrial Average is worth a close look.

Feb 5, 2022

Our Thoughts on Big Pharma’s Calendar Fourth Quarter Earnings Reports
Image Source: Merck & Company Inc – Fourth Quarter of 2021 IR Earnings Presentation. We include the Health Care Select Sector SPDR Fund ETF in the Best Ideas Newsletter and Dividend Growth Newsletter portfolios to gain broad exposure to the health care sector. Instead of betting on one entity's pipeline (which could be hit or miss), we like the exposure to lots and lots of "shots on goal" when it comes to the vast collective pipeline in the XLV ETF. We wrote up the calendar fourth-quarter results of the top two weightings in the XLV ETF, United Health and Johnson & Johnson recently. We continue to like UNH a lot, but JNJ's story has become a lot more complicated for dividend growth investors in recent months. Let's have a look at some of the other key holdings in the XLV ETF, however. We'll cover the calendar fourth-quarter earnings reports from four heavyweights in the pharmaceutical arena (ABBV, GILD, LLY, and MRK). Additionally, we'll cover the performance of some of their top-selling treatments that have already received regulatory approval from the U.S. Food and Drug Administration (‘FDA’) and key clinical trials that could produce new commercial growth opportunities. The coronavirus (‘COVID-19’) pandemic has become more manageable during the past year or so after several vaccines and therapeutics for the virus were discovered in record time. While headwinds from the pandemic remain, the health care sector is steadily recovering and this space is home to plenty of attractive opportunities for capital appreciation and income seeking investors. XLV, UNH, JNJ, and VRTX are a few that we like a lot.

Sep 24, 2018

Update on 5 Top Energy Stocks: KMI, ETP, EPD, MMP, XOM
We generally like the diversification provided in the Energy Select SPDR ETF (XLE) as one way to consider exposure to the energy resource arena, but let's get the highlights on some of the most-viewed energy-related ideas on our website: Kinder Morgan, Energy Transfer Partners/Equity, Enterprise Product Partners, Magellan Midstream, and Exxon Mobil.

Sep 18, 2018

Midstreams Going C-Corp, Should SEC Disallow the Measure Distributable Cash Flow?
It’s important to differentiate the concept of enterprise free cash flow valuation and the idea of capital-market dependence. The uncertainty of the MLP business model remains, as it is clear operators are shunning the MLP business model preferring C-Corps instead. According to work from Global X Funds, now 40% of the energy infrastructure market cap consists of C-Corps, up considerably from just 15% at the end of 2014. Though many simplifications have come with implied distribution cuts, the primary reason for the rise in C-Corps across the midstream space has been the rationalizing of excess MLP valuations to enterprise free cash flow assessments. We encourage the SEC to consider disallowing the use of distributable cash flow, as it is confusing to investors.

Sep 14, 2018

Dividend Growth: Capital Preservation Remains Key
Image Shown: Since mid-June 2015, the performance of an ETF tracking the midstream MLP industry (AMLP) has collapsed while the performance of an ETF tracking the S&P 500 (SPY) industry has surged.The Valuentum dividend methodology continues to identify weeds that may overrun a beautiful garden of stocks forming your portfolio. Part of the Valuentum dividend methodology is helping to identify in advance those companies at risk of a dividend cut, as once the payment is slashed, not only is the income stream reduced but capital may be permanently impaired.