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Latest Valuentum Commentary
Sep 20, 2023
ICYMI: Questions for Valuentum’s Brian Nelson
Valuentum's President Brian Nelson, CFA, answers your questions.
Jun 26, 2023
Latest Report Updates Concentrated in Mining & Chemicals and Healthcare Industries
In our 16-page equity research reports, we offer a fair value estimate for each company based on a rigorous and transparent discounted cash flow process, assess the attractiveness of a stock based on a firm-specific margin of safety, and provide a relative valuation comparison in the context of the company’s industry and peers. Each report includes detailed pro forma financial statements, explicit fundamental forecasts, and scenario analysis. A cross section of the ValueCreation and ValueRisk ratings provides a financial assessment of a company’s business quality (competitive position), while the ValueTrend and Economic Castle ratings offer insight into the trajectory of a firm’s economic profit creation (ROIC versus WACC). Included in each 16-page report is a company's rating on the Valuentum Buying Index (VBI), a methodology that combines rigorous financial and valuation analysis with an evaluation of a firm's technicals and momentum indicators to derive a score between 1 and 10 for each company (10=best). We believe the VBI methodology helps identify the most attractive stocks at the best time to consider buying, helping to avoid value traps and lagging performance due to the opportunity cost of holding a stock with great potential but at an inopportune time. The Best Ideas Newsletter portfolio puts the VBI into practice. Read more about the Valuentum Buying Index rating system, "Value and Momentum Within Stocks, Too." Members can access our 16-page company research reports by using our 'Symbol' search box in our website header.
Jun 14, 2023
UnitedHealth Group’s Long-Term Story Intact
Image: UnitedHealth Group’s shares are facing pressure as the pace of medical procedures normalizes following COVID-19. We still like shares. On June 7, UnitedHealth Group raised its quarterly dividend nearly 14%, to $1.88 per share, which reflects a forward estimated dividend yield of 1.65%. The company remains a staple in the Dividend Growth Newsletter portfolio and is a new add in the Best Ideas Newsletter portfolio. Recent comments by UNH’s John Rex on June 14 regarding the firm’s healthcare costs during the second quarter have put shares under pressure during the trading session. Discretionary surgeries have picked back up following a lull during most of the COVID-19 pandemic as hospital capacity was largely constrained during that time. We’re viewing the expectations for higher medical costs in the near term for UNH as a reflection of pent-up demand (e.g. hip, knee replacements) and therefore largely a one-time step up that will weigh on is financials during 2023, but not in the longer run as premiums are eventually reset (repriced) to better cover the cost pressures. We think the market is overreacting to the news and likely reallocating to more aggressive areas within big cap tech as defensive stocks within healthcare weaken in 2023. UNH’s shares are now trading in the lower bound of our fair value estimate range, and we still like this large cap growth idea in the long run.
Jun 12, 2023
FDA Accepts License Application for Vertex Pharma’s and CRISPR Therapeutics’ Key Investigational Treatment
Image: Vertex's pipeline is impressive. We like its areas of focus and the progress it continues to make with key therapies in CRISPR and pain management. The combination of robust financials and a tremendous pipeline of game-changing therapeutics from exa-cel to VX-548 makes Vertex Pharma a no-brainer idea for the Best Ideas Newsletter portfolio, in our view. Vertex Pharma's shares are up nearly 18% so far in 2023, and we think its long term remains very bright. The company's dominance in CF gives it moaty economic characteristics, while the possible launch of as many as five new products in the next five years offers tremendous promise. Vertex Pharma's risk-reward situation continues to be skewed positively in investors' favor.
May 30, 2023
Paper: Value and Momentum Within Stocks, Too
Abstract: This paper strives to advance the field of finance in four ways: 1) it extends the theory of the “The Arithmetic of Active Management” to the investor level; 2) it addresses certain data problems of factor-based methods, namely with respect to value and book-to-market ratios, while introducing price-to-fair-value ratios in a factor-based approach; 3) it may lay the foundation for academic literature regarding the Valuentum, the value-timing, and ultra-momentum factors; and 4) it walks through the potential relative outperformance that may be harvested at the intersection of relevant, unique and compensated factors within individual stocks.
May 17, 2023
Our Reports on the Health Care Bellwethers Industry
Our reports on the Health Care Bellwethers industry can be found in this article. Reports include JNJ, CVS, ABT, ABBV, LLY, AMGN, MRK, PFE, VRTX, UNH, BMY, GILD, ISRG, MDT, WBA, ZTS.
Apr 14, 2023
UnitedHealth Group Raises Guidance for 2023
Image: We view valuation as a range of probable fair value outcomes. The high end of the fair value estimate range for UnitedHealth Group stands north of $600. Shares are currently trading at ~$520 each at the time of this writing. We’re huge fans of entities that generate strong free cash flow and boast a healthy net cash position on the books, and that includes UnitedHealth Group. During the first quarter of 2023, the company returned $3.5 billion to shareholders via dividends and buybacks. UnitedHealth remains one of our top dividend growth ideas, and while the company yields just ~1.3% at this time, we expect its future pace of dividend growth to be robust, especially in light of its strong potential earnings expansion that is backed by robust free cash flow generation and a net-cash-rich balance sheet. It’s simply hard not to like UnitedHealth Group.
Jan 20, 2023
Dividend Increases/Decreases for the Week of January 20
Let's take a look at firms raising/lowering their dividends this week.
Jan 13, 2023
UnitedHealth Is A Free Cash Flow Powerhouse; Shares Yield ~1.3%
Image Source: UnitedHealth Group. Very few firms have the type of free cash flow conversion as that of UnitedHealth Group, and the company’s free cash flow coverage of its cash dividends remains phenomenal, all the while its balance sheet remains as strong as ever. We expect the firm to continue to raise its 2023 guidance throughout the year as momentum behind its UnitedHealthcare and Optum divisions accelerate. The executive team remains confident that it will achieve its long-term goal of growing earnings per share in the range of 13%-16% per annum, and while that may seem aggressive, it is achievable, in our view. Healthcare spending remains a large part of U.S. GDP, and we expect overall spending on healthcare to continue to expand at a rapid clip in coming years. We continue to like UnitedHealth Group as a dividend growth idea, and its financials speak to tremendous payout support.
Jan 10, 2023
Dow Laggard Walgreens Boots Alliance Yields North of 5%; Has Raised Dividend for 47 Consecutive Years
Image: Walgreens Boots Alliance’s shares have been pummeled during 2022. Image Source: TradingView. Key metrics, including free cash flow and adjusted earnings per share, aren’t presently moving in the right direction at Walgreens Boots Alliance, but free cash flow generation remains in excess of cash dividends paid. The company, and its predecessor firm, Walgreen Co., have paid 360 straight quarters of dividends over the past 90 years, too, raising the payout in each of the past 47 years. It’s absolutely amazing for a company to have such a storied history and reliable dividend track record, but it’s also worth emphasizing Walgreens Alliance Boots is far from a simple story these days. Still, with a 5%+ forward estimated dividend yield, this component of the Dow Jones Industrial Average is worth a close look.
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The High Yield Dividend Newsletter, Best Ideas Newsletter, Dividend Growth Newsletter, Nelson Exclusive publication, and any reports, articles and content found on this website are for information purposes only and should not be considered a solicitation to buy or sell any security. The sources of the data used on this website are believed by Valuentum to be reliable, but the data’s accuracy, completeness or interpretation cannot be guaranteed. Valuentum is not responsible for any errors or omissions or for results obtained from the use of its newsletters, reports, commentary, or publications and accepts no liability for how readers may choose to utilize the content. Valuentum is not a money manager, is not a registered investment advisor and does not offer brokerage or investment banking services. Valuentum, its employees, and affiliates may have long, short or derivative positions in the stock or stocks mentioned on this site.