Fundamental data is updated weekly, as of the prior weekend. Please download the Full Report and Dividend Report for any changes.
Latest Valuentum Commentary
Nov 19, 2021
Cisco Systems Posts Solid Earnings Update; Supply Chain Hurdles Impacting Near Term Outlook
Image Source: Cisco Systems Inc – First Quarter of Fiscal 2022 IR Earnings Presentation. On November 17, Cisco Systems reported first quarter earnings for fiscal 2022 (period ended October 30, 2021) that missed consensus top-line estimates but beat consensus bottom-line estimates. Shares of CSCO fell initially after its latest earnings update was published due to its near-term guidance coming in a tad softer than expected, though we caution that this is primarily due to supply chain headwinds negatively impacting Cisco Systems and the networking hardware industry more broadly. As global health authorities work towards bringing the coronavirus (‘COVID-19’) pandemic to an end worldwide, the supply chain situation should improve going forward. We include Cisco Systems as an idea in both the Best Ideas Newsletter and Dividend Growth Newsletter portfolios. As of this writing, shares of CSCO yield ~2.6%.
Nov 17, 2021
Asset Allocators Fail, Advisors Should Pick Stocks, Save Investors $34 Billion Annually
Image: Most asset allocators can’t even keep pace with the underperforming 60/40 stock/bond portfolio. Highlight added by author. Image Source: Wealth Management. Let’s get this industry back on track. This isn’t about going all-in on cryptoassets or being reckless with one’s capital the past 10 years, but merely picking stocks as a risk/wealth management strategy that approximated the S&P 500 for the past 10 years, and how that has crushed not only the best that quant has had to offer in small cap value but also indexing and asset allocation. One hundred and seventy percentage points of difference relative to the 60/40 stock/bond portfolio, which itself beat many of the “best” asset allocators out there!!! This isn’t about taking on more risk, but rather that active stock selection should be viewed in the same vein as asset allocation. Why do we continue to publish the obviously-biased research in favor of indexing and asset allocation when stock selection could have delivered so much more for investors while saving them billions in annual fees from ETFs, etc. Today, the SEC has a lot on its plate regarding SPACs, cryptocurrency, new issues, ETF approvals and beyond, but in our view, the SEC shouldn’t necessarily be prioritizing 2 and 20 fees more than the index-fund fee chain, and it shouldn’t necessarily be trying to eliminate payment for order flow (PFOF) any more than it should seek to eliminate low-cost index funds. Let us not kid ourselves: It's clear why index funds and passive is winning -- the fees are tremendous! All things considered, if investors want to believe risk is volatility and suffer with indexing and asset allocators, that is their prerogative, but what worked in the past (deviations from equity selection as in the 60/40 stock/bond portfolio) bolstered by high interest rates in the 1980s is far from relevant today (and making up alternative assets isn't going to help). We don’t need more indexing and asset allocation books these days. We need more common sense. Stop selling index funds and start trying to help investors.
Nov 16, 2021
Our Reports on Stocks in the Technology Giants Industry
Our reports on stocks in the Technology Giants industry can be found in this article. Reports include FB, AAPL, GOOG, AMZN, MSFT, CSCO, V, MA, PYPL, INTC, ORCL, QCOM, TWTR, IBM, ADBE, NVDA, CRM, AMD, AVGO, BABA, BKNG, BIDU, TSM, FFIV, TXN, EBAY, ADP, PAYX, MU, KFY, MAN, KLAC, LRCX, AMAT, ADI, SIMO.
Nov 12, 2021
Hard Work and the Trust That Binds
Image: Terry Johnson. It’s easy to forget how much we’ve been through the past two years. Often, we forget how helpful the warning that markets were going to crash was the weekend before they did on February 22, 2020, “Is a Stock Market Crash Coming? – Coronavirus Update and P/E Ratios,” how we thought dollar-cost-averaging made sense at the bottom in March 2020, and how we went “all-in” in April 29, 2020, “ALERT: Going to “Fully Invested” – The Fed and Treasury Have Your Back,” when we saw the writing was on the wall for this blow off top. If nothing else, these three moves alone during the past couple years have paid for a lifetime of subscriptions.
Oct 7, 2021
IBM Provides Investors with a Major Update
Image Source: International Business Machines Corporation – October 2021 IR Presentation. While still a major enterprise, International Business Machines Corp is no longer the tech juggernaut it used to be and hasn’t been a leading tech company for over a decade. The company recognizes this and back in October 2020, IBM announced that it planned to “separate its Managed Infrastructure Services unit of its Global Technology Services division into a new public company” that will be called Kyndryl. By the end of 2021, this tax-free spinoff is expected to be complete (shares of Kyndryl will be spun off to IBM shareholders). In October 2021, IBM provided a major update to its shareholders covering its medium-term financial outlook, key operational updates, and what to expect going forward as it concerns its dividend policy, areas that we are going to cover in this article.
Sep 24, 2021
Cisco Systems’ Growth Outlook Continues to Improve
Image Source: Cisco Systems Inc – 2021 Investor Day Event Presentation. Things at Cisco Systems are beginning to turn around and management made sure to highlight the company’s improving outlook during its big Investor Day event held on September 15. We include Cisco Systems as an idea in both the Best Ideas Newsletter and Dividend Growth Newsletter portfolios as the firm has a fortress-like balance sheet (i.e., large net cash position), tremendous free cash flow generating abilities, and its growth outlook has improved immensely since contending with serious headwinds from the worst of the coronavirus (‘COVID-19’) pandemic. Shares of CSCO yield ~2.6% as of this writing.
Aug 19, 2021
Cisco Systems Continues to Recover; Growth Outlook Quite Promising
Image Source: Cisco Systems Inc – Fourth Quarter of Fiscal 2021 IR Presentation. On August 18, Cisco Systems reported fourth quarter earnings for fiscal 2021 (period ended July 31, 2021) that beat consensus top- and bottom-line estimates. Cisco Systems also offered guidance for both the first quarter of fiscal 2022 along with full-year guidance for fiscal 2022, breaking with tradition (usually the company does not offer full fiscal year forecasts). Cisco Systems is included as an idea in both the Best Ideas Newsletter and Dividend Growth Newsletter portfolios. We continue to be huge fans of Cisco Systems, and shares of CSCO initially moved significantly higher during the morning trading hours on August 19.
Jul 14, 2021
10 YEARS OF EXCELLENCE AT VALUENTUM
Join Valuentum as it celebrates its 10th anniversary of putting investors first!
Jun 29, 2021
The Skill Paradox Is a Myth in Investing
Image: The game of baseball has changed during the past 100 years. While many point to a declining standard deviation and coefficient of variation in batting averages for evidence of a paradox of skill in baseball, it's more likely the game has changed. Players are hitting more homeruns, sacrificing batting average as a result. Source: Baseball Almanac. Michael Mauboussin, while highlighting in his own words in The Success Equation how stock portfolios have conformed over time due to a reduction of active share brought about by myriad influences in how active managers are "playing the game," completely misses using this explanation as the correct conclusion for the observation of declining standard deviations of excess returns. There is no paradox of skill in investing. Investors are conforming to the same playbook due to conflicting incentives (perhaps even driving active management skill levels collectively lower), and this is resulting in what we're seeing today. Unlike his work in evaluating baseball and basketball, Mauboussin seems to completely miss that active mutual funds and ETFs are also only 15% of the market. In the case of investing, analyzing the standard deviation of returns of 15% of the stock market, as in active funds and ETFs, tells us little about luck or skill. Warning about the use of small sample sizes early in the book, the combination of this errant conclusion has only padded the indexing propaganda making The Success Equation an absolute tragedy of a text, and I must say it hurts me a lot to say it (I know how much work goes into writing a book, and I generally enjoy Mauboussin's work).
Jun 27, 2021
Two Alerts and Bull Market On!
Image Source: Mike Cohen. "We like stocks in an inflationary environment, and we love big cap tech and large cap growth in any environment." -- Brian Nelson, CFA
Latest Press Releases
The High Yield Dividend Newsletter, Best Ideas Newsletter, Dividend Growth Newsletter, Nelson Exclusive publication, and any reports, articles and content found on this website are for information purposes only and should not be considered a solicitation to buy or sell any security. The sources of the data used on this website are believed by Valuentum to be reliable, but the data’s accuracy, completeness or interpretation cannot be guaranteed. Valuentum is not responsible for any errors or omissions or for results obtained from the use of its newsletters, reports, commentary, or publications and accepts no liability for how readers may choose to utilize the content. Valuentum is not a money manager, is not a registered investment advisor and does not offer brokerage or investment banking services. Valuentum, its employees, and affiliates may have long, short or derivative positions in the stock or stocks mentioned on this site.