Valuentum Exclusive Analysis for the Discerning Investor

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Mar 3, 2024

Merger Mania
Image Source: Glenn Beltz. Mergers and acquisition [M&A] activity continues as the market sets new highs. Elevated borrowing costs as a result of the Fed’s aggressive rate hiking cycle in 2022 are pushing many entities to pursue all-stock transactions.

Feb 25, 2024

We Remain Bullish; Is This 1995 – The Beginning of a Huge Stock Market Run?
Image: Large cap growth stocks have trounced the performance of the S&P 500, REITs, and bonds since the beginning of 2023. We expect continued outperformance in this area of the market. We’re now roughly four years past the depths of the COVID-19 meltdown, where equities collapsed in February and March of 2020. As the markets began to recover through 2020, our long-term conviction in equities only grew stronger. We think the biggest risk for long-term investors remains staying out of the market on the basis of what could be considered stretched valuation multiples. As we outlined heavily in the book Value Trap, valuation multiples hardly tell the complete story about a company and often omit key long-term earnings growth, cash flow dynamics, and balance sheet health considerations. We remain bullish on equities for the long haul, and we think the next couple years will be incredibly strong. Our best ideas can be found in the Best Ideas Newsletter portfolio, Dividend Growth Newsletter portfolio, High Yield Dividend Newsletter portfolio, ESG Newsletter portfolio, and via the Exclusive publication as well as options idea generation.

Feb 19, 2024

The Price-to-Earnings Ratio Demystified
Let's examine the price-to-earnings (P/E) ratio. The key takeaways are: 1) without using a discounted cash-flow model, the P/E ratio that should be applied to a company's future expected earnings stream can never be appropriately calculated, and by extension, 2) when investors assign an arbitrary price-to-earnings multiple to a company’s earnings (based on historical trends or industry peers or the market multiple), they are essentially making estimates for all of the drivers behind a discounted cash-flow model in one fell swoop (and sometimes hastily). As earnings for next year are often within sight and can be estimated with some confidence (though this certainly varies among firms), calculating the price-to-earnings ratio via a discounted cash-flow process, in our opinion, is of far greater importance than worrying about whether a firm will beat or miss earnings in its next fiscal year. Because the P/E ratio is a discounted cash-flow model that considers the long-term qualitative dynamics of a particular entity, cash-flow analysis remains the first and most important pillar of our Valuentum Buying Index. And finally, investors cannot ignore valuation analysis or the future. Valuation is an important driver behind stock prices, and it is based on future expectations that can only be estimated. This is just a fact of the markets.

Jan 8, 2024

Thinking Slow: 3 Research Blind Spots That Changed the Investment World
Image Source: EpicTop10.com. We have to be on high alert about how our minds work. PBS recently delivered a four-part series examining how easily our minds are being hacked, and why it is so important to "think slow." When it comes to the active versus passive debate, does the analysis suffer from parameter risk? With respect to empirical, evidence-based analysis, does the analysis have the entire construct wrong? When it comes to short-cut multiples, are we falling into the behavioral trap of thinking on autopilot?

Dec 23, 2023

12 Reasons to Stay Aggressive in 2024
From outperforming simulated newsletter portfolios to fantastic success rates in the Exclusive publication to option ideas and great income-oriented ideas and beyond, we continue to deliver across our simulated newsletter suite as our latest video outlines. It’s hard to know exactly what 2024 will bring in terms of a market return, but the internals of the stock market and the U.S. economy look great to us. The new bull market we’re in could last for years, and as a result, we are staying aggressive with many of our new ideas as we look to benefit from these favorable trends.

Nov 17, 2023

REITs Will Likely Continue To Underperform
Image: REITs have not performed as well as some may have thought. This article clearly explains that REIT dividends are risky and showcases that REIT investors have missed out on a lot of total return during the past decade or so. One has to go back a long time to see any real return from REITs, and changing working and shopping habits will likely continue to punish the broader REIT sector. We view REITs as a game of financial leverage tied to the vicissitudes of the commercial real estate cycle, all for a dividend yield that approximates that of risk-free assets these days. REITs seem to have a large following these days and many will come to the defense of REITs in their own way, but from a bird's eye view of this market, we remain puzzled by the love affair some have for them. We can only posit that some have a myopic focus on REIT-specific metrics, are not getting the best information when it comes to capital-market dependence risk, and perhaps don't truly understand the structural dynamics of the dividend payment with respect to the free dividends fallacy (i.e. that a REIT's share price is adjusted downward by the amount of the dividend on the ex-dividend date). In our view, the structural dynamics that have hurt REITs for the past decade won't be going away anytime soon, and for investors looking to maximize their returns and the longevity of their retirement savings, there are much better options than REITs.

Oct 25, 2023

Visa’s High Margin Business Reveals Consumer Spending Remains Resilient
Image: Visa has been a strong performer thus far in 2023. On October 24, Best Ideas Newsletter portfolio holding Visa reported excellent fourth-quarter results for its fiscal 2023. Net revenues advanced 11% on a year-over-year basis, while non-GAAP net income and non-GAAP earnings per share leapt 18% and 21% year-over-year, respectively, in the period. For the fiscal year, Visa generated an impressive 64.4% operating margin. Payments volume increased 9% and cross-border volume advanced 16%, showcasing that the consumer remains very healthy thanks in part to low unemployment rates, despite concerns over higher mortgage costs, student loan repayments, and general economic uncertainty as savings accrued during the COVID-19 pandemic wane. We continue to be big fans of Visa as our top payments-related idea.

Sep 20, 2023

ICYMI: Questions for Valuentum’s Brian Nelson
Valuentum's President Brian Nelson, CFA, answers your questions.

May 11, 2023

We Prefer Visa
Image: Visa’s operating cash flow of $8 billion, and free cash flow of ~$7.5 billion through the first half of its fiscal 2023 is remarkable. Image Source: Visa. Visa's second-quarter fiscal 2023 results released April 25 were enough to support our continued positive take on the moaty entity, as it beat the consensus estimate on both the top and bottom line. During its quarter ending March 31, 2023, net revenues advanced 11%, while GAAP earnings per share leapt 20%, to $2.03 per share. Payments volume advanced 10% in the quarter on a year-over-year basis, while total cross-border volume increased 24%. Processed transactions advanced 12% in the quarter from the same period a year ago.

Jan 30, 2023

Visa’s Q1 Fiscal 2023 Solid, Puts Up 64%+ Operating Margin
Image: Visa is a free cash flow generating powerhouse and is insulated from rising delinquency and charge offs, unlike others in the credit card space. Image Source: Visa. Visa is a capital-light entity, meaning that its capital expenditures are quite small relative to its revenue and cash flow from operations. We love these types of companies as they are able to generate a significant amount of free cash flow, which for Visa, came in at $3.92 billion during the quarter, about 49% of total revenue. Visa’s business model is so cash-rich that for every $1 generated in revenue, roughly half of that turns into free cash flow. Very few companies have the operating margin and free cash flow profile as that of Visa, and we remain huge fans of this Best Ideas Newsletter portfolio holding. Shares yield 0.8%.