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Fundamental data is updated weekly, as of the prior weekend. Please download the Full Report and Dividend Report for any changes.
Oct 10, 2016
Honeywell’s Stock Up 170% Since End of 2009; GE a Better Bet?
Has Honeywell’s business value truly increased by 170% in less than seven years, or are shares overheated? We think investors should continue to exercise prudence in today’s stretched market. GE may be a better relative bet than Honeywell.
Sep 15, 2016
Getting the Job Done
A sneak peak at the introduction to the September edition of the Best Ideas Newsletter.
Aug 15, 2016
Pop the Bubbly? Everyone Is Getting Rich
Image Source: Bryan Rosengrant. Federal Reserve policy and negative interest rate policy across the globe mean hurdle rates on new projects and investments are approaching zero. As “acceptable” returns fall, asset prices are being bid up to nosebleed levels. Everyone is getting rich, but what will the fallout be?
Aug 5, 2016
Major Automakers: Fundamental Uncertainty But Potential Investment Opportunity…Soon
Image Source: Ford. The fates of major US automakers General Motors and Ford remain as tethered as ever, but we remain in awe at how punitive “this” frothy market is on their respective valuations. For one, GM is trading at 5 times forward adjusted earnings and boasts a near-5% dividend yield!
Aug 3, 2016
A Kleenex? Consumer Staples Trading At Nosebleed Levels
Image Source: Alan Levine. The latest reading on the forward price-to-earnings ratio of S&P 500 companies is 17 (July 29, 2016), above its 5-year and 10-year averages, while the forward price-to-earnings ratio of the consumer staples sector is even “frothier” at nearly 21 times – yes, that’s the forward 12 month price-to-earnings ratio, which assumes bottom-line growth.
Jul 11, 2016
Understanding the Market Melt Up
Image Source: Martin Thomas. No – things are not getting better. The discount rate is shrinking – and that means rising equity values.
Jun 27, 2016
Keep Calm and Carry On?
Image Source: War History Online, June 22. Markets often overshoot to the downside, and we’re not even at “fair valuation” in the context of widely-followed market multiples. Patience is a virtue.
Jun 24, 2016
Brexit: Secession Bells Are Ringing!
First Baptist Church in Columbia, S.C., where the first secession convention in the United States opened on Dec. 17, 1860. Source: Library of Congress, Washington, DC. Photo. Encyclopædia Britannica Online. Web. 24 Jun. 2016. Global markets are plunging, and the implosion may still be in the early innings. Market valuations remain stretched among stagnant global economic growth, and “Brexit” may be the catalyst for a correction.
May 23, 2016
Why The Fed Matters
As higher discount rates are embedded in traditional valuation models, the value of long-duration free cash flows is reduced exponentially, shrinking estimates of intrinsic worth. It’s purely fundamental.
May 18, 2016
Soros, Icahn, Nelson Hedge for Market Fall
Pictured: George Soros; source: Heinrich-Böll-Stiftung. Three investors are betting that the broad equity market will fall…and soon.


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