Valuentum Exclusive Analysis for the Discerning Investor

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Mar 4, 2022

Dividend Increases/Decreases for the Week March 4
Let's take a look at companies that raised/lowered their dividend this week.

Feb 26, 2021

Dividend Increases/Decreases for the Week February 26
Let's take a look at companies that raised/lowered their dividend this week.

Feb 24, 2021

Home Depot Shows the Home Has Never Been More Important
Image Source: Home Depot. On Tuesday, February 23, Home Depot reported fiscal fourth-quarter 2021 results (period ending January 31, 2021) that came in better than consensus estimates across the board. Not only did the top- and bottom- lines beat, but comparable store sales growth of 24.5% exceeded even some of the most optimistic forecasts for the home improvement retailer during the period. The average ticket price and the number of transactions advanced, while both professional (“Pro”) and Do-It-Yourself (“DIY”) customer revenue increased at a double-digit pace in the quarter. Home Depot also raised its dividend 10% and now yields ~2.5% on a forward-looking basis ($6.60 per-share dividend on an annualized basis). We continue to like the home improvement retailer as a holding in the Dividend Growth Newsletter portfolio.

Feb 8, 2021

Stock Market Outlook for 2021
2020 was one from the history books and a year that will live on in infamy. That said, we are excited for the future as global health authorities are steadily putting an end to the public health crisis created by COVID-19, aided by the quick discovery of safe and viable vaccines. Tech, fintech, and payment processing firms were all big winners in 2020, and we expect that to continue being the case in 2021. Digital advertising, cloud-computing, and e-commerce activities are set to continue dominating their respective fields. Cybersecurity demand is moving higher and the constant threats posed by both governments (usually nations that are hostile to Western interests) and non-state actors highlights how crucial these services are. Retailers with omni-channel selling capabilities are well-positioned to ride the global economic recovery upwards. Green energy firms will continue to grow at a brisk pace in 2021, though the oil & gas industry appears ready for a comeback. The adoption of 5G wireless technologies and smartphones will create immense growth opportunities for smartphone makers, semiconductor players and telecommunications giants. Video streaming services have become ubiquitous over the past decade with room to continue growing as households “cut the cord” and instead opt for several video streaming packages. We’re not too big of fans of old industrial names given their capital-intensive nature relative to capital-light technology or fintech, but there are select names that have appeal. Cryptocurrencies have taken the market by storm as we turn the calendar into 2021, but the traditional banking system remains healthy enough to withstand another shock should it be on the horizon. Our fair value estimate of the S&P 500 remains $3,530-$3,920, but we may still be on a roller coaster ride for the year. Here’s to a great 2021!

Jan 21, 2021

ICYMI: Valuentum's Brian Nelson on the Latest Howard Marks' Memo: "Something of Value"
Valuentum's President of Investment Research Brian Michael Nelson, CFA, explains why there are not really value and growth stocks, why most of the research in quantitative finance is spurious and needs to be redefined on a forward-looking basis, and why enterprise valuation (not the efficient markets hypothesis) should be the organizing principle of finance. Nelson explains his views about valuation, what it means to be a value investor, and investing in the context of Oaktree Capital Howard Marks' latest memo, "Something of Value," January 11, 2021.

Nov 16, 2020

Value Is Not Static and the Qualitative Overlay Is Vital to Our Process
With prudence and care, the Valuentum Buying Index process and its components are carried out. Our analyst team spends most of its time thinking about the intrinsic value of companies within the context of a discounted cash-flow model and evaluating the risk profile of a company's revenue model. We have checks and balances, too. First, we use a fair value range in our valuation approach as we embrace the very important concept that value is a range and not a point estimate. A relative value overlay as the second pillar helps to add conviction in the discounted cash-flow process, while a technical and momentum overlay seeks to provide confirmation in all of the valuation work. There's a lot happening behind the scenes even before a VBI rating is published, but it will always be just one factor to consider. Within any process, of course, we value the human, qualitative overlay, which captures a wealth of experience and common sense. We strive to surface our best ideas for members.

Nov 15, 2020

Zillow Continues to Disrupt Real Estate Market
Image Source: Zillow Group Inc – May 2020 IR Presentation. Record low interest rates for mortgages in the US, largely a product of the Fed’s monetary stimulus measures (quantitative easing and near-zero interest rates), has gone a long way in stimulating demand for homes. According to the US Census Bureau, the national homeownership rate stood at 67.4% in the second quarter of 2020, up ~260 basis points from the same period the prior year. For reference, the domestic homeownership rate has been steadily climbing higher since 2015-2016 (when homeownership rates were in the low-60s% range) according to data provided by the US Census Bureau. Homeownership rates peaked in 2005-2006 at the high-60s% level before sliding significantly lower over the next decade due in part due to the ramifications of the Great Financial Crisis (‘GFC’) and the tightening of mortgage lending standards (in large part due to Dodd–Frank Wall Street Reform and Consumer Protection Act that was passed in 2010).

Apr 7, 2020

24 in a Row! Order the Exclusive Today!
Image Source: An excerpt from the March 2020 edition of the Exclusive publication. Valuentum offers commentary across the capital stack in the Exclusive publication. In the Exclusive publication, Valuentum highlights three new ideas each month to consider, one for income, one for capital appreciation, and a "short" idea (all three outside our existing coverage universe). Through March 2020, the success rate for capital appreciation ideas is 84%+ and an incredible 95%+ for short-idea considerations. As of this writing, the Exclusive is currently on a short-idea win streak of 24 in a row! Make sure the Exclusive is part of your Valuentum membership.

Jul 11, 2019

Valuentum Exclusive Yearly Round Up
"I want finance to learn from the past, the quantitative mistakes of yesteryear that brought the world economy to its knees. The misaligned incentives that created a massive bubble and subsequent housing market crash. The problems of leverage in yet another quant hedge fund Long Term Capital Management that caused panic in the late 1990s. Wall Street is not learning from history, and many are going wildly down the path of destruction. Don’t confuse indexing with a bull market. Pay attention to what you own. Stay diversified, and most of all, do your own due diligence." -- President of Investment Research, Brian Nelson, CFA

Oct 4, 2017

Housing Market Very Strong But To “Face Two Contradicting Challenges”
Image Shown: The iShares US Home Construction ETF (ITB) has advanced ~ 24% year-to-date, according to data from YahooFinance. “Housing indicators may be leveling off,” per S&P Corelogic, and the threat of rising interest rates looms (as it has for years), but we like the fundamental strength that we’re seeing from the homebuilders of late, which has translated into strong equity performance.