Valuentum Exclusive Analysis for the Discerning Investor

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Sep 20, 2023

ICYMI: Questions for Valuentum’s Brian Nelson
Valuentum's President Brian Nelson, CFA, answers your questions.

Aug 17, 2023

3 High Dividend Yielders for Consideration
Image: Entities with large net cash positions and substantial free cash flow generation have outperformed not only the broader stock market, but also key high yield areas, including REITs, mortgage REITs and master limited partnerships during the past 10 years. Source: The respective ETF sponsors. The skills to successfully invest for long-term capital gains or long-term dividend growth are much different than those required for generating high yield dividend income. Income investing is a much different proposition. However, the skills do center on a similar equity evaluation process, but one that requires an acknowledgement and heightened awareness of considerably greater downside risks. Income investing, or high yield dividend income investing, should at times be considered among the riskiest forms of investing, as many high dividend-yielding securities tend to trade closer to the characteristics of junk-rated bonds than they do most net cash rich and free cash flow generating powerhouses that we like so much in the Best Ideas Newsletter portfolio and Dividend Growth Newsletter portfolio.

Aug 2, 2023

ICYMI: Let’s Play Devil’s Advocate: What’s the Bear Case for Realty Income?
Image Source: Realty Income. It’s helpful to challenge one’s thesis on a favorite idea every now and then, and we’ve done just that with Realty Income in this article. We see three areas of weakness at Realty Income that could challenge our bullish take on the name: 1) its retail exposure, 2) its financial leverage and arguably unwarranted investment-grade credit rating, and 3) the current rising interest rate environment. Perhaps the most compelling component of the bear case on Realty Income is its massive net debt position and present value of future dividend liabilities that dwarf its annual operating cash flow. The REIT business model isn’t as attractive as many make it out to be.

May 30, 2023

Paper: Value and Momentum Within Stocks, Too
Abstract: This paper strives to advance the field of finance in four ways: 1) it extends the theory of the “The Arithmetic of Active Management” to the investor level; 2) it addresses certain data problems of factor-based methods, namely with respect to value and book-to-market ratios, while introducing price-to-fair-value ratios in a factor-based approach; 3) it may lay the foundation for academic literature regarding the Valuentum, the value-timing, and ultra-momentum factors; and 4) it walks through the potential relative outperformance that may be harvested at the intersection of relevant, unique and compensated factors within individual stocks.

Jan 20, 2023

Why Are the Dividends of REITs So Risky?
REITs, as measured by the Vanguard ETF (VNQ), have generated a total return of 39.5% since the beginning of 2015 through the end of 2022, an eight-year period that has translated into a measly compound annual return of just 4.25%. This compares to a total return of the Vanguard S&P 500 ETF (VOO) of 116.3%, which translates into a compound annual return of 10.1% over the same time period. Not only have REITs underperformed terribly during the past 8 years, but there have been more than 100 dividend cuts by REITs over this time period, too. REITs just aren’t what some make them out to be. Be careful.

Jan 15, 2023

Our Reports on Stocks in the Telecom Services Industry
Image Source: Mike Mozart.  Our reports on stocks in the Telecom Services industry can be found in this article. Reports include CMCSA, DISH, T, TMUS, VZ, SBAC, AMT, CCI, PARA. The telecom industry is characterized by rapid technological change, intense competition and pricing pressures. The mature wireline segment remains under attack from cable/wireless products. Mobile technology enhancements such as the iPhone continue to attract new wireless subscribers in less saturated markets, but this has not lessened the intensity of competition. Industry constituents continue to pursue acquisitions in order to reduce bloated cost structures and achieve synergies. Average revenue per subscriber and churn rates should be monitored closely. We’re neutral on the structure of the group.

Dec 27, 2022

Exclusive Call: What To Expect From Valuentum in 2023
Video: 2022 was a successful year by almost every measure from the simulated Best Ideas Newsletter portfolio and simulated Dividend Growth Newsletter portfolio to the simulated High Yield Dividend Newsletter portfolio and Exclusive publication and beyond. There were some disappointments in 2022, of course, but the year showed the value of a Valuentum membership. Join President of Investment Research Brian Nelson on this year's Exclusive conference call to learn what to expect from Valuentum in 2023. Cheers!

Dec 21, 2022

Our Reports on the Real Estate Investment Trusts (REITs)
Our stock reports on the diversified REIT sector can be found in this article. Reports include DLR, FRT, O, REG, SPG, PEAK, OHI, VTR, WELL, PSA, EQIX, CUBE, EXR, IRM.

Dec 7, 2022

REITs May Continue to Face Pressure
Image: The Dividend Cushion ratio is one of the most powerful financial tools an income or dividend growth investor can use in conjunction with qualitative dividend analysis. The ratio is one-of-a-kind in that it is both free-cash-flow based and forward looking. Since its creation in 2012, the Dividend Cushion ratio has forewarned readers of approximately 50 dividend cuts. We estimate its efficacy at ~90%. Equity and mortgage REITs have been under considerable pressure during 2022. Institutional investors seem to be fleeing the sector, but retail investor interest still seems unusually high. We think this might be a tell-tale sign that retail investors could end up getting burned, if they haven’t been already by the terrible performance across the sector so far in 2022. Withdrawals on non-publicly traded REITs are soaring, and SL Green’s dividend cut may be the first of many in the sector to come. We only include a select few REITs across our simulated newsletter portfolios.

Nov 28, 2022

2022 Showcased the Value of a Valuentum Membership
In bull markets, almost everyone is a winner. But 2022 was different. This year was a big test for Valuentum, and we passed with flying colors. We delivered across the board during the year from ideas in the Exclusive publication and the efficacy of the dividend growth methodology to the resilience of high yield ideas and simulated Best Ideas Newsletter portfolio relative performance--despite setbacks from Meta Platforms, PayPal, and beyond. Tune in to the latest video installment from Valuentum. Thanks for listening!