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Valuentum Commentary
May 22, 2025
Target Navigating a Highly Challenging Environment
Image Source: TradingView. Looking to fiscal 2025, Target expects a low-single digit decline in sales and adjusted earnings per share between $7.00-$9.00, when excluding gains from litigation settlements in the first quarter. Target’s results are consistent with an entity that is experiencing macroeconomic and competitive challenges. Walmart and Costco are performing much better than Target, and we don’t expect this to change anytime soon. Target ended the quarter with $2.9 billion in cash and cash equivalents against short- and long-term debt of $15.5 billion. Shares are trading roughly in-line with our fair value estimate. May 19, 2025
3 Undervalued Stocks to Consider Buying Now
All told, we think these three names are ripe for the picking. UnitedHealth Group has clearly plummeted on bad headline news, while the market is not giving Nvidia enough credit for the sustainability of its technology. Alphabet is being weighed down by antitrust issues and the concern that artificial intelligence will permanently alter its business model, which we believe will not happen anytime soon, if at all. All three ideas are included in the Best Ideas Newsletter portfolio, where we include a diversified portfolio of ideas for members to consider. Happy investing! May 19, 2025
Walmart Talks of Higher Prices Due to Tariffs; Trump Takes Exception
Looking to the second quarter of fiscal 2026, Walmart’s net sales are expected to increase 3.5%-4.5%, which includes a 20 basis point tailwind from its acquisition of Vizio. Looking to all of fiscal 2026, the firm left its guidance unchanged. Net sales are expected to increase 3%-4%, while adjusted operating income is targeted to advance between 3.5%-5.5%, which includes a meaningful headwind from lapping leap year. Adjusted earnings per share is expected to be between $2.50-$2.60, including foreign currency headwinds. Though Walmart’s fiscal first quarter results revealed strength, President Trump took exception to Walmart’s plans to raise prices as a result of tariffs. We like Walmart, but don’t include the stock in any newsletter portfolio. Read more >> May 6, 2025
Magnificent 7 Earnings Reports Not Bad Thus Far
Shortly after Trump's Liberation Day, where the President unveiled lofty tariffs on numerous countries, we released our wait-and-see outlook for the equity markets, which thus far has proven to be the right move, with the markets largely recovering from the depths reached in April. The S&P 500, for example, is down just 3.3% year-to-date, excluding dividends. A lot has happened since Liberation Day, including easing of tariffs to a 10% baseline for most, if not all, countries, with the key exception of China, where tariffs remain extremely elevated and prohibitive. Many countries are now reportedly negotiating trade agreements with the White House, and we expect China to be added to that list soon, even if a full US/China trade agreement won't be completed in the near term, as full-scale trade deals take time to mold. Thus far, we have been impressed by earnings this season, particularly by the Magnificent 7. Apr 4, 2025
Trump Tariffs Higher than Expected; What We're Doing
The Trump tariff increases came in larger than what we were expecting, and it remains to be seen how they will flow through the global economy, as we monitor potential retaliatory tariffs from other countries. As it relates to the equity markets, we’re taking a wait and see approach at the moment as we monitor new policy changes related to trade, immigration, fiscal (tax), and regulations. In short, we’re not overreacting to the sell off as we won’t have a great handle on the tariff impact to companies for a few quarters when they report results post-tariff increases. That said, we’re expecting continued market volatility, with meaningful risk to the downside, before trade uncertainty alleviates in the coming months. Jan 6, 2025
Target Expects Ho Hum Holiday Results
Image Source: Target. For the holiday fourth quarter, Target expects 1.5% comparable sales growth with GAAP and adjusted earnings per share in the range of $1.85-$2.45 (versus $2.64 consensus), translating to a full year expected GAAP and adjusted earnings per share range of $8.30-$8.90. The midpoint of the guidance range was down compared to its prior outlook in the range of $9.00-$9.70 and the consensus mark of $9.52. Target appears to be losing share against Walmart, Amazon and Costco, and there is no clear path to regaining it. Target’s shares yield 3.3% at the time of this writing. Sep 26, 2024
An Important Measure of Leverage for Dividend-Growth and Income-Oriented Shareholders, One That Is Dividend-Adjusted
As more and more investors rely on company dividends for income, dividends, in our view, have become more debt-like commitments in nature, especially from the perspective of dividend-growth or income-oriented shareholders. Years ago, we rolled out a measure of financial leverage that considers both the company’s debt and the present value of its future expected cash dividend obligations, which, in the eyes of die-hard dividend-growth or income-oriented shareholders, may be implicitly assumed to be debt-like commitments in substance. We think this leverage ratio can be used in conjunction with the Dividend Cushion ratio to gain additional insight into the dividend-paying financial health of an entity. Aug 21, 2024
Target’s Second Quarter Results Better Than Feared
Image: Target’s shares have been quite volatile since the beginning of 2023. Target expects a 0%-2% increase in comparable store sales and adjusted earnings per share in the range of $2.10-$2.40 in the third quarter (consensus was $2.24). For the full year, management thinks that comparable store sales growth will be in the 0%-2% range, with an increased likelihood that the increase will be in the lower half of the range. Target, however, now expects full-year GAAP and adjusted earnings per share in the range of $9.00-$9.70, which is up from previous expectations in the range of $8.60-$9.60 and the midpoint higher than the consensus forecast of $9.22 per share. Our fair value estimate of $155 per share remains unchanged at this time. Shares yield 3.1%. Aug 15, 2024
Walmart Raises Its Fiscal 2025 Outlook
Image Source: Walmart. Walmart’s adjusted earnings per share for fiscal 2025 is now targeted in the range of $2.35-$2.43 (was $2.23-$2.37). The company ended the quarter with total debt of $47 billion and cash and cash equivalents of $8.8 billion. Walmart hauled in $5.9 billion in free cash flow during the first six months of the year, well in excess of the $3.3 billion it paid in dividends over the same time period. We liked Walmart’s second quarter report, its raised outlook for fiscal 2025, and the company’s very healthy dividend. Shares yield 1.2% at the time of this writing. Aug 9, 2024
Paper: Value and Momentum Within Stocks, Too
Abstract: This paper strives to advance the field of finance in four ways: 1) it extends the theory of the “The Arithmetic of Active Management” to the investor level; 2) it addresses certain data problems of factor-based methods, namely with respect to value and book-to-market ratios, while introducing price-to-fair-value ratios in a factor-based approach; 3) it may lay the foundation for academic literature regarding the Valuentum, the value-timing, and ultra-momentum factors; and 4) it walks through the potential relative outperformance that may be harvested at the intersection of relevant, unique and compensated factors within individual stocks. Latest News and Media The High Yield Dividend Newsletter, Best Ideas
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