Fundamental data is updated weekly, as of the prior weekend. Please download the Full Report and Dividend Report for any changes.
Latest Valuentum Commentary
Nov 30, 2022
Great Year for (Our) High Yield Dividend Ideas! Inquire about the High Yield Dividend Newsletter!
Image: The year-to-date simulated estimated performance of the High Yield Dividend Newsletter portfolio, which continues to hold up well during 2022, while offering an attractive forward estimated dividend yield. Simulated estimated performance is calculated by Valuentum and has not been externally audited. Inquire about the High Yield Dividend Newsletter. The next edition will be released December 1, 2022. Based on our estimates, the simulated High Yield Dividend Newsletter portfolio is down ~4.4% on a price-only basis so far in 2022 on an interim basis, using data from the trading session November 29 (retrieved from Seeking Alpha). By comparison, according to data from Morningstar, the Vanguard 60/40 stock/bond portfolio (VBIAX) is down more than 15% so far this year (on a price-only basis), the Vanguard Real Estate ETF (VNQ) is down 26% year-to-date (on a price-only basis), while the iShares Mortgage Real Estate Capped ETF (REM) is down ~30% on a year-to-date basis. Each simulated newsletter portfolio at Valuentum targets a different strategy, whether long-term capital appreciation, dividend growth, income/high yield, and the like. Generally, for the simulated Best Ideas Newsletter portfolio, it targets long-term capital appreciation potential (not in one year or a couple years, but in the long run). During the past five years...an ETF that tracks the area of large cap growth is up more than 70%, while an ETF that tracks the area of dividend growth has advanced ~40%, an ETF that tracks small cap value is up ~17% during the past five years, while an ETF that tracks the area of the highest-yielding S&P 500 companies is up just 12% -- according to data from Morningstar. REITs, as measured by the VNQ, are up just 3% over the past five years. We nailed the call on the drawdown in the 60/40 stock/bond portfolio this year, and readers should continue to question the merits of modern portfolio theory, not merely state that now the 60/40 stock/bond is cheap (after the huge decline)! It's extremely important to continue to test whether something makes sense or not. If interest rates continue to rise, we think bond prices will continue to face pressure. Sometimes, a few of our best ideas don't work out (as in any year), but that's why we use the simulated (and diversified) Best Ideas Newsletter portfolio to measure the success of the VBI. We're not a quant shop. We believe in the qualitative overlay. For example, there are highly-rated ideas that don't make the cut for the simulated Best Ideas Newsletter portfolio and there are low-rated ideas that find their way into the newsletter portfolio because they add a diversification benefit. Given the massive up years in the broader markets in 2019, 2020 and 2021, with the simulated Best Ideas Newsletter portfolio estimated to be down in the low-double-digits so far this year (approximately ~10%-12%, by our latest tally) -- and this estimate includes the missteps in Meta Platforms (META), PayPal (PYPL), and Disney (DIS) -- this is actually pretty awesome, in our view -- especially considering all that went wrong in other areas such as crypto, REITs, mortgage REITs, disruptive innovation stocks, Chinese equities, and the list goes on and on. A low double-digit estimated percentage decline, as that "experienced" in the simulated Best Ideas Newsletter portfolio so far in 2022 after huge up years, can be viewed as just part of a long-term journey that targets capital appreciation. For context, Berkshire Hathaway's stock price was nearly halved in 1974. It's okay to time the markets a bit as we did last August, but staying engaged with investing over the long haul is a key part of the recipe for success, as it was for Berkshire investors. For readers seeking income and high yield dividend ideas, please consider subscribing to our High Yield Dividend Newsletter. 2022 hasn't been an up year for a lot of investors, but it shouldn't have been a disaster either, and we've done a really great job avoiding the worst areas. We're interested in hearing how you are using our service, so that we can continue to get better. All told, we're excited about 2023, and we hope you are too!
Nov 28, 2022
2022 Showcased the Value of a Valuentum Membership
In bull markets, almost everyone is a winner. But 2022 was different. This year was a big test for Valuentum, and we passed with flying colors. We delivered across the board during the year from ideas in the Exclusive publication and the efficacy of the dividend growth methodology to the resilience of high yield ideas and simulated Best Ideas Newsletter portfolio relative performance--despite setbacks from Meta Platforms, PayPal, and beyond. Tune in to the latest video installment from Valuentum. Thanks for listening!
Nov 10, 2022
Market Whipsaw: Crypto Collapse and a Lower-than-Expected Inflation Print
Image: Uncertainty in the cryptocurrency markets has surged with concerns over the liquidity of a key exchange. Investors are weighing the spillover effects of crypto with the view that the pace of inflation may have peaked. The U.S. equity market continues to be highly volatile as it whipsaws between concerns over the health and sustainability of cryptocurrency and optimism over lower-than-feared inflation readings. We maintain our bearish/defensive stance on equities, but at the same time, we continue to be “fully-invested” across the simulated newsletter portfolios in part because we don’t want to miss out on days like today, November 10, when the markets are soaring ~2.5%-5.5% depending on which index you are monitoring. We’re also not ruling out a Santa Claus rally through the end of the year. Merry Dow Jones, as they say!
Nov 8, 2022
Berkshire Continues to Be a Staple in the Best Ideas Newsletter Portfolio
Image Source: Fortune Live Media. Warren Buffett has made some missteps over the years. For every Occidental Petroleum, there is a Kraft Heinz that hasn’t worked out. For every Apple, there is an IBM that has failed to live up to expectations. We hope our readers view our work in a holistic way, much like they view Buffett’s. In the Best Ideas Newsletter portfolio, for example, where Meta Platforms, PayPal, and Disney haven’t lived up to expectations, other Best Ideas Newsletter portfolio “holdings” such as Exxon Mobil, Chevron, and Vertex Pharma are up 79%, 56%, and 40% so far this year, respectively. We don’t think investors judge Warren Buffett solely on his missteps in Kraft Heinz and IBM (during a bull market no less!), no more than we hope readers won’t judge our work solely on Meta, PayPal, or Disney (during a punishing bear market!), particularly when other ideas are soaring--and the simulated Best Ideas Newsletter portfolio is outdistancing the SPY so far this year. Within any investment portfolio, there will be winners and there will be losers. It’s all part of investing. Buffett understands this. Valuentum understands this. We hope you understand this, too!
Nov 3, 2022
Lumen’s Dividend Cut Highlights Effectiveness of Valuentum’s Dividend Methodology and Uniqueness of Dividend Cushion Ratio
A lot of times investors only focus on the dividend payout ratio – dividends paid per share divided by earnings per share – or free cash flow coverage of the dividend, but the balance sheet is so very important to the sustainability of the dividend, too – something that the Dividend Cushion ratio embraces but other dividend health metrics do not. For example, Lumen’s dividend payout ratio was 50% ($0.75 in dividends dividend by $1.50 in earnings per share during the first three quarters of the year), and its free cash flow was enough to cover its cash dividends paid during the first nine months of 2022, too. However, the company held a massive ~$25 billion net debt position at the end of the quarter, which pushed its Dividend Cushion ratio deep into negative territory, raising a huge red flag with respect to the sustainability of the payout. Ignoring the balance sheet both with respect to intrinsic value and dividend analysis could be a recipe for disaster.
Oct 31, 2022
Recent Fair Value Estimate Changes
Let's have a look at recent fair value estimate changes across our coverage universe.
Oct 30, 2022
Hi everyone: To stay true to our mission, you'll find something new regarding our methodology. In the coming weeks, you'll see this table in our work going forward.
Oct 28, 2022
In the News: META, AAPL, AMZN, RSG, DLR, VRTX, XOM, CVX
Image Source: Valuentum. Readers should expect a substantial reduction in our fair value estimate of Meta Platforms on the basis of materially reduced forecasts of free cash flow. Apple’s calendar third-quarter results were good, considering that many were worried about iPhone 14 demand heading into the report. Amazon’s results support a cautious tone with respect to consumer spending, while we remain bullish on three of our best-performing ideas so far in 2022 – Vertex Pharma, Exxon Mobil, and Chevron. We didn’t see anything in the Republic Services and Digital Realty reports that would warrant any material changes to our theses at this time.
Oct 28, 2022
Dividend Increases/Decreases for the Week of October 28
Let's take a look at firms raising/lowering their dividends this week.
Oct 27, 2022
VBI Ratings Not as Impressive As We Would Have Liked in 2022
Image: How the VBI rating system has ranked equities so far this year. At Valuentum, we use the Valuentum Buying Index (VBI) to source ideas into diversified simulated newsletter portfolios, and the VBI may be most applicable to the simulated Best Ideas Newsletter portfolio, where we generally like to include ideas when they register a high VBI rating and remove them when they register a low VBI rating. We always use the VBI in a portfolio setting and never by itself. Let's talk more about the VBI rating system in this work.
Latest Press Releases
The High Yield Dividend Newsletter, Best Ideas Newsletter, Dividend Growth Newsletter, Nelson Exclusive publication, and any reports, articles and content found on this website are for information purposes only and should not be considered a solicitation to buy or sell any security. The sources of the data used on this website are believed by Valuentum to be reliable, but the data’s accuracy, completeness or interpretation cannot be guaranteed. Valuentum is not responsible for any errors or omissions or for results obtained from the use of its newsletters, reports, commentary, or publications and accepts no liability for how readers may choose to utilize the content. Valuentum is not a money manager, is not a registered investment advisor and does not offer brokerage or investment banking services. Valuentum, its employees, and affiliates may have long, short or derivative positions in the stock or stocks mentioned on this site.